tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39651966023698254172024-02-20T13:49:03.411+08:00財經拆局原. 有線財經Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.comBlogger3022125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-68393148752766637922023-10-25T19:15:00.005+08:002023-10-25T19:15:37.592+08:00減辣不單徒勞無功 甚至「好心做壞事」<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6qq-cZLgebHKXx3Ip83WIdiJImwL6Aew2NOV8JUeODHdKcZvyTBFzLvdf3N8AFdFr6aiKHohxucC_VR0L6RgzPeId1UUQNSZdXv30ahf3vG_6j_ea3fIh827lwQ1KX9ByIYWpQFSxJtmh8mGH0V4Uct_iIZx_bVMG9RLaPO7zfo2CVKcfcF_SYLTpJIDn/s2048/WhatsApp%20Image%202023-10-25%20at%2010.48.28.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1366" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6qq-cZLgebHKXx3Ip83WIdiJImwL6Aew2NOV8JUeODHdKcZvyTBFzLvdf3N8AFdFr6aiKHohxucC_VR0L6RgzPeId1UUQNSZdXv30ahf3vG_6j_ea3fIh827lwQ1KX9ByIYWpQFSxJtmh8mGH0V4Uct_iIZx_bVMG9RLaPO7zfo2CVKcfcF_SYLTpJIDn/s320/WhatsApp%20Image%202023-10-25%20at%2010.48.28.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Times;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2023</b><span class="s2" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>年</b></span><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Times;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2022</b><span class="s2" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>年</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>國家:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>66<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>44</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>經濟:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>65<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>40</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>大灣區:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>62<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>45</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>金融:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>35<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>26</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>愛國:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>29<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>9</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>國家安全:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>22<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>8</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>競爭力:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>16<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>13</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>一帶一路:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>12<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>8</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>民生:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>幸福:</b></span><b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6</b></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 19px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p4" style="font-family: "Songti TC"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>上面的數字不是流量密碼,而是行政長官李家超發表長達近三個半小時的《施政報告》中,內容提及的關鍵字次數,當中不出所料,其中一個最頻繁的是「國家」,甚至超越「經濟」一詞,至於提及「大灣區」次數亦多達</b><span class="s3" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>62</b></span><b>次,比「金融」高出近一倍。在由治及興的今天,「愛國」及「國家安全」亦是全長</b><span class="s3" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>108</b></span><b>頁的施政報告中佔了重要部分,亦遠超過去年的水平;反而是標題「拼經濟謀發展</b><span class="s3" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><b> </b></span><b>惠民生添幸福」中有提及的「民生」及「幸福」,僅是寥寥可數,可知受重視程度。</b></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: Times; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 19px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">作為今屆《施政報告》中最受重視一環,我們先討論一下「減辣」的措施。面對房屋供應偏緊及樓價急升,政府<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">2010</span>年起推出多輪「辣招」,打擊短期炒賣活動及減少外來需求。不過過去一年面對利率顯著上升,本地樓市交投減少,樓價亦出現調整,由高位已回落<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">17%</span>,大概目前將樓市措施「減辣」也是「眾望所歸」。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px; min-height: 18px;">不過觀乎「減辣」的奇怪組合,並又是令人摸不著頭腦,不單止可能「嘥氣」,甚至有機會事與願違,結果變成好心做壞事。</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">其中我之前已預測,買家印花稅(<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">BSD</span>)和新住宅印花稅的稅率會下降,但施政報告提出「減辣」程度,卻低於商界呼籲,僅僅只是減半,兩者均會由<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">15%</span>減至<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">7.5%</span>。這兩項辣稅本來就是針對已擁有住宅物業的香港居民(即購買第二層樓或以上)收租<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>投資,以及非本港居民╴現在僅僅只是減半而非全額撤銷,買樓的財務成本仍然極高,特別是考慮到新造按揭利率已突破四厘,創十五年新高,部分中小行甚至高於五厘水平,買樓與否已經不單止是計算辣稅水平。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px; min-height: 18px;">更奇怪的是政府居然同一時間下調額外印花稅(<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">SSD</span>)的水平,適用年期由原來<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>年縮短至兩年。換言之,業主在持有物業兩年後出售物業,毋須再繳付樓價<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">10%</span>的額外印花稅。</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">報章引述政府消息人士稱,對於並非全面撤銷「辣招」,認為是次調整是平衡做法,主要考慮需求及風險,以免對樓市帶來太大刺激;買家印花稅<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">(BSD)</span>及新住宅從價印花稅<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">(NRSD)</span>稅率減半,是中間落墨,在樓市交投量減少下,有條件作出調整;額外印花稅<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">(SSD)</span>適用年期由<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>年縮短至<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">2</span>年,業主持貨<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">2</span>年後出售毋須再繳付樓價<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">10%</span>的<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">SSD</span>,也是基於平衡風險考慮,年期太短難免造成炒風,太長亦不便業主資金周轉,目前買入滿<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">2</span>年但不足<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>年的住宅約<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">7.6</span>萬伙。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px; min-height: 18px;">額外印花稅(<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">SSD</span>)本來目標就是打擊炒樓特別是短期轉讓,甚至在成交完成前「摸貨」賣走,推出之後短炒的情況幾乎是完全絕跡。請問今次放寬<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">SSD</span>的目的到底是甚麼?是要增加樓市供應?大家不要忘記,今年第三季新盤貨尾量增加至<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">20483</span>伙,為近<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">20</span>年新高,現在在市場潛在鬆綁多<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">7.6</span>萬個樓盤,龐大的增加供應恐怕只會成為湯文亮口中壓低樓市的「最後一根稻草」。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px; min-height: 18px;">更重要是三年前買入單位的樓盤,當時正值樓市高峰期,加上部分新盤定價一向進取,很多樓盤比高位回落逾兩、三成,有地產代理就统計<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">9</span>月全港二手住宅買賣登記,蝕讓比率突破兩成,高達<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">20.4%</span>,屬<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">2009</span>年以來的超過<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">14</span>年新高,即約每<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">5</span>宗二手登記便有<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">1</span>宗原業主須蝕讓沽貨。現在這批業主可以鬆綁,很大機會會出現「輸少當贏」的心態,一窩蜂減價賣樓只會做成「人踩人」效應。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px; min-height: 18px;">最奇怪是將兩個組合加起,作為供應方<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">SSD</span>賣樓撤辣,但針對需求的<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">BSD</span>買家的辣稅僅是減半,換言之即是賣家有更強意願賣樓,但買家的誘因卻支持不足,將這兩組辣稅同時調整,減辣不單徒勞無功,甚至「好心做壞事」,難怪近日多間外資大行(匯豐<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>大摩<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>瑞銀<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>花旗<span class="s1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>里昂)都出奇地不比面,在施政報告前打倒昨日的我,承認之前錯估樓市形勢,下調樓價預測,普遍估計要跌多一成,甚至像花旗更稱香港樓市最痛苦時刻只是剛剛開始。</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>施政報告</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>樓市減辣</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>嘥氣</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>痛苦時刻</p><p><span class="s1" style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px;">財經拆局</span> </p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-60190410246386151202023-10-18T00:21:00.000+08:002023-10-18T00:21:00.485+08:00 【以巴戰爭對投資者有甚麼影響?】<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOPZ3fEXqeZ7NsF8SJ52V-A_uZfDLrNXu5mNmHJcHVP5Zv3gmzGV8tVJ65jRRGxx0nU1Mzrfw9IntAWtdMeQ6QGLMAYT8m6EejxvGsPGiCkWLZH7Ib-x7eWSjNOaOVLHC-1FhKjoe6R16i3UuX_70BotClr1TnqZlK_sxeGJqB_Ia2lqJpKDNfWlxAy5PR/s734/C54BDBF6-ABEF-4F77-BEE1-970D34B9ABD4.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="734" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOPZ3fEXqeZ7NsF8SJ52V-A_uZfDLrNXu5mNmHJcHVP5Zv3gmzGV8tVJ65jRRGxx0nU1Mzrfw9IntAWtdMeQ6QGLMAYT8m6EejxvGsPGiCkWLZH7Ib-x7eWSjNOaOVLHC-1FhKjoe6R16i3UuX_70BotClr1TnqZlK_sxeGJqB_Ia2lqJpKDNfWlxAy5PR/s320/C54BDBF6-ABEF-4F77-BEE1-970D34B9ABD4.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />答案好像很明顯,表面沒有吧?不單港股連續兩日上漲,甚至外圍股市影響幾乎都沒有:油價最初只上漲了3%左右,黃金上漲了約1%,美國國債期貨上漲,收益率下降。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">無論是股票還是美國國債,波動幅度都低於上周五美國的就業報告公布後的波幅。事實很殘酷:對市場而言,這場殺戮的重要性甚至不及美國勞工統計局的一組數據。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>與一年多前俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭相比,金融市場顯然真的冷靜得多:當時憂慮俄羅斯會切斷輸送歐洲的天然氣及能源供應,很快就觸發全球通脹急速升溫,聯儲局更間接啟動四十年來最急速的加息周期,利率幾乎由零息水平到升穿五厘,觸發全球債匯股資產價格急速調整;同一時間美俄之間的地緣政治衝突加劇,甚至歷史性西方國家有共識以SWIFT 制裁俄羅斯,亦間接令中美之間的關係冰封,影響所及甚至令過去四十年推動全球經濟的產業供應鏈幾乎完全摧毀。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">因此與之比較,今次以色列-哈馬斯戰爭規模一來細少得多,雙方的戰力亦非常懸殊,戰事肯定不會抗日持久,而且僅限於地區性衝突,加上過去類似衝突亦非常頻繁,因此金融市場反應溫和也是可以理解。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但關鍵的是這場戰爭只是剛揭開序幕,而且有升級的可能性。最有可能發生的情況是幫助策劃了此次哈馬斯襲擊的伊朗,會受到更多制裁。這將意味著近日美伊緊張關係緩和勢頭出現逆轉,先前得益於這種緩和趨勢,伊朗過去一年來原油日產量增加了約50萬桶。高盛就估計,明年伊朗的日產量每減少10萬桶,油價就會上漲1美元,因此僅此一項就可能帶來相當於周一油價漲幅兩倍的上漲。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">更大可能,這場戰爭還可能破壞沙地阿拉伯與以色列關係的改善勢頭,更糟糕的情況是以色列直接對伊朗採取軍事行動。一旦發生這種情況,假如伊朗對從伊拉克駛出的油輪進一步實施封鎖,則油價可能飆升。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">吊詫的是,在戰事一開始,聯邦基金利率期貨反映,聯儲局在今年餘下時間裡不加息的機會反而有所上升,交易員預測在11月暫停加息行動的機會率從一天前的72.9%升至88.5%,而12月按兵不動的可能性從57.6%升至74%。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">如果油價高企甚至升至一百美元一桶水平,勢必重新推高美國通脹,那為何市場會預測美國會暫停加息?這中間必須要考慮的因素,是高通脹及中東戰爭規模擴大,可能會令遲遲未見的美國經濟衰退可能終於來臨,經濟由軟著陸變成硬著陸,這正正解釋為何交易員會預測聯儲局好可能會按兵不動。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但即使利率不再向上,在油價高企的環境下,美國利率維持高息環境時間可能遠比市場估計更長,甚至乎明年將不大可能出現減息,這對香港會是警號:因為高利率已經令本港樓價由高位回落,全年升幅已全數蒸發,第四季樓價有機會加快下跌;而利率高企亦不利企業增加資本開支,負債沉重的房地產發展商更是首當其衝。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">還有一點不利的是香港資本市場正在銳意發展中東市場,香港上市公司商會主席梁嘉彰早前就表示現今指美資及歐資已不太來港(食左誠實豆沙包?),稱問題非常嚴重,呼籲成立跨部門專責小組,開拓新領域,吸引中東資金來港。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">近期港股成交量低,財政司司長陳茂波早前成立促進股票市場流動性小組,有關建議預料會在施政報告內公布,內容除了各界引頸以待的削減股票印花稅外,預料報告內亦會建議港交所拓展中東市場,包括引入沙特阿美到香港掛牌,以及重啟伊斯蘭債券。但一場以巴戰爭可能會完全改寫現在的中東政治格局,戰事亦不知要拖延幾耐,這對港股來說又是一個意想不到的黑天鵝,將最後有機會「發圍」的潛在市場,一下子完全抹去。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">還有一點投資者需要關注:今年是中國提倡「一帶一路」十周年,但現在中東的衝突給飽受打擊的中國股市蒙上一層新的陰雲,導致受風險敞口的股票下跌,尤其是與該地區基礎設施項目相關的股票,投資者紛紛向各公司詢問其影響。 </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">路透社報道,儘管國內經濟有復甦跡象,但中國股市在長假後復市,卻未有如外界估計出現反彈,反而連續第二個交易日下跌,鋼鐵製造商和鐵路建築商的股價因擔心其業務可能受到干擾而下跌。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">由於擔心長期戰鬥會加劇地區緊張局勢,並阻礙中國十年前的「一帶一路」倡議(BRI)計劃中的項目,基礎設施股分遭受了最嚴重的損失。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">中國溫和的外交立場——呼籲緩和局勢,但沒有譴責哈馬斯——也招致了以色列和美國的批評,並加劇了投資者對衝突可能蔓延至地緣政治的擔憂。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">地緣政治是過去兩年不論政經最重要的課題,未來的重要性只會有增無減,投資者倘以為今次以巴戰事與己無關,實在是需要改變這種天真的想法。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%BB%A5%E5%B7%B4%E6%88%B0%E4%BA%8B?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVNlvZ_3lWOrAFaoz_rqZmGafkx8Kh6yBW37PBY00s3S8muQXZeqB3mC3GL2eG2PMR62Z7LSx2qLsmjfFxkSt4pxyvroS_7GVT0KFXJSdQu9ZBTSbVrjRa862DlCoJS5tJiFZmrboLasBtLVYM-aG8szH5AQqqp6KYeVFof5SITK_G4QoBOVccq20HjTFifqRM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#以巴戰事</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%9C%B0%E7%B7%A3%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVNlvZ_3lWOrAFaoz_rqZmGafkx8Kh6yBW37PBY00s3S8muQXZeqB3mC3GL2eG2PMR62Z7LSx2qLsmjfFxkSt4pxyvroS_7GVT0KFXJSdQu9ZBTSbVrjRa862DlCoJS5tJiFZmrboLasBtLVYM-aG8szH5AQqqp6KYeVFof5SITK_G4QoBOVccq20HjTFifqRM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#地緣政治</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E9%96%8B%E6%8B%93%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVNlvZ_3lWOrAFaoz_rqZmGafkx8Kh6yBW37PBY00s3S8muQXZeqB3mC3GL2eG2PMR62Z7LSx2qLsmjfFxkSt4pxyvroS_7GVT0KFXJSdQu9ZBTSbVrjRa862DlCoJS5tJiFZmrboLasBtLVYM-aG8szH5AQqqp6KYeVFof5SITK_G4QoBOVccq20HjTFifqRM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#開拓中東市場</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B8%E8%A8%80%E4%B8%AD?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVNlvZ_3lWOrAFaoz_rqZmGafkx8Kh6yBW37PBY00s3S8muQXZeqB3mC3GL2eG2PMR62Z7LSx2qLsmjfFxkSt4pxyvroS_7GVT0KFXJSdQu9ZBTSbVrjRa862DlCoJS5tJiFZmrboLasBtLVYM-aG8szH5AQqqp6KYeVFof5SITK_G4QoBOVccq20HjTFifqRM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#不幸言中</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVNlvZ_3lWOrAFaoz_rqZmGafkx8Kh6yBW37PBY00s3S8muQXZeqB3mC3GL2eG2PMR62Z7LSx2qLsmjfFxkSt4pxyvroS_7GVT0KFXJSdQu9ZBTSbVrjRa862DlCoJS5tJiFZmrboLasBtLVYM-aG8szH5AQqqp6KYeVFof5SITK_G4QoBOVccq20HjTFifqRM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-32718224076621739242023-10-18T00:11:00.005+08:002023-10-18T03:21:03.364+08:00 【「潤學」中心】<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpuH21GNvzBYhb0maZY7x9dzd_1s8v1tssmRaW4YxIs2-t31bf_47Mo-Yb2vY8AZe5LR5l_3H1tgKTPdD4m9SWmBzTcQALA5KuG6qSPr0M2r9KXPPFTU9F7-JU2fFRtJvP6pm4AFSUsTEdxLvjCdfcm7tgvsveihNj5mv6XxxFpyYsZNsUqNBKdDswoKIA/s747/0561E657-D083-4EAE-9D1E-2F9163074C31.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="747" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpuH21GNvzBYhb0maZY7x9dzd_1s8v1tssmRaW4YxIs2-t31bf_47Mo-Yb2vY8AZe5LR5l_3H1tgKTPdD4m9SWmBzTcQALA5KuG6qSPr0M2r9KXPPFTU9F7-JU2fFRtJvP6pm4AFSUsTEdxLvjCdfcm7tgvsveihNj5mv6XxxFpyYsZNsUqNBKdDswoKIA/s320/0561E657-D083-4EAE-9D1E-2F9163074C31.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">多家媒體引述消息稱,新一份《施政報告》將提出將8間資助大學非本地生學額,由目前20%增加一倍至40%,以打造「國際高等教育樞紐」,建議已諮詢八大並獲支持。以現時每年級約15000個大學學士資助學額計算,提高限額意味每年新生之中,非本地生由現時最多3000人,倍增至6000人,本地收生人數就會降至9000人。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">去年八月我寫了【香港高等學院成內地「潤學」三甲 】,正是翻查大學教育資助委員會數據,列出過去多年八大學院收錄內地生的人數,由2016-17年度約萬二名學生,升至上一個年度的近一萬四千八百人。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>我最近加入了2022-23年度數據(圖中紅字部分),當然沒有意外,在八大就讀內地生人數進一步上升,今個年度再增加至近一萬六千二百人,較前一個年度增加接近一成,而佔本科生比例,連同研究院亦已達到錄取非本地學生上限的兩成。 </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">當中又以港大、中大收取內地生人數最多,分別有近四千五百人及三千二百多人,均創歷來新高。更值得關注是,對不設限設的研究院研究課程,內地及非本地生佔比,總體已經趨升至84%,其中城大更達到誇張的94%程度。 </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">去年我已經提出,令人憂慮的是本地年青人口大幅減少的趨勢,有關決策局會否以開放更多學額為理由,引入更多內地留學生「補充」人口,甚至打破目前非本地生佔兩成的上限?想不到只是一年時間,政策已經出現改變。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">本屆政府喜愛打造不同的中心,好像「法律仲裁中心」、「慈善中心」,我的建議是不妨名正言順將香港高等學府打造成「潤學中心」,正如去年內地的調查顯示,內地留學生選擇香港高等學府作為升學比例,由2020年只佔8%、全球排名第七,到兩年後已躍升至全球三甲,僅次於英美,比例急升至19%,不單超越了2019年社會運動前的13%,更創近年新高,排名超過了過去的熱門城市包括澳洲、加拿大、日本及新加坡。「潤學」之餘當然可以帶動資金及住屋需求,豈不是一石二鳥解決埋本港的經濟問題? </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">當然,香港是開放城市,實在我們也不應對內地留學生戴上有色眼鏡(中大法律博士生曾雨璇就是令人尊重的例子,可惜最終因「煽動罪」判囚6個月後,已被遣送曾離境),真正令人憂慮的是,不少內地留學生本身都有背景,可能是高官子女,又或是國企高管的下一代,他們在內地已經被視為特權階層,一旦這些留學生畢業後留港發展,令人擔心的是很可能形成新特權階層,對本地學生來說,就會形成一個不對等的競爭環境(Unlevel Playing Field),日後在職場上會面對不公平競爭,這對近年已經備受打壓的年輕一代,將會帶來更艱難的向上流機會。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">另一問題係香港的八大,是納稅人資助,即使非本地生學費收高一點,每年收12-14萬元,但只比本地生高1.8-2.4倍,以政府每年向八大撥款211億, 即是每名學生基本成本都要近22萬元,換言之大學根本未能收回成本,結果仍是納稅人埋單╴但香港本地生的收生比例卻被降至60%,這又會是另一個加快推走香港人的理由。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%BD%A4%E5%AD%B8%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUCt42KKPuO6c2UUq3JUd7F_530lG56_HkTh-8rMUvowUKmsaD8qfBAsINrfqFUwFUm2sJPYKDUr4py-Sv39FXRUg7rdCaMx7BtTT3tdDoeKXHDfJT8eURFxcGuqJAu3GSdW1I2gWeUtzGqe5xS8bP0&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#潤學中心</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E7%95%99%E5%AD%B8%E7%94%9F?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUCt42KKPuO6c2UUq3JUd7F_530lG56_HkTh-8rMUvowUKmsaD8qfBAsINrfqFUwFUm2sJPYKDUr4py-Sv39FXRUg7rdCaMx7BtTT3tdDoeKXHDfJT8eURFxcGuqJAu3GSdW1I2gWeUtzGqe5xS8bP0&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#內地留學生</a></span> </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%96%B0%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E4%BA%BA?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUCt42KKPuO6c2UUq3JUd7F_530lG56_HkTh-8rMUvowUKmsaD8qfBAsINrfqFUwFUm2sJPYKDUr4py-Sv39FXRUg7rdCaMx7BtTT3tdDoeKXHDfJT8eURFxcGuqJAu3GSdW1I2gWeUtzGqe5xS8bP0&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#新香港人</a></span> </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUCt42KKPuO6c2UUq3JUd7F_530lG56_HkTh-8rMUvowUKmsaD8qfBAsINrfqFUwFUm2sJPYKDUr4py-Sv39FXRUg7rdCaMx7BtTT3tdDoeKXHDfJT8eURFxcGuqJAu3GSdW1I2gWeUtzGqe5xS8bP0&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-83411083653839706222023-09-20T04:46:00.002+08:002023-09-20T04:46:30.286+08:00「急於求成」 JPEX 爆煲引證證監會監管不力<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ93DMWd7AKZk3ithXThkNPO_D3ou_eKTXPYP7SeP51bEAZSygqi5kwixnnZof_O1zylA0xZUHhcOhZggfRyWQCbt0IKnil9AOh-3WrA004XfoBfgRIIO02LGrocZid5OYoDQzVHUpGh-X0PzNPZekVB5UMJDilhnRaNTSl9vWH4p39e4tX0exNFF8iNKs/s3196/9E4F8AA3-B65C-47BF-A948-78289817527A-COLLAGE%202.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3196" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ93DMWd7AKZk3ithXThkNPO_D3ou_eKTXPYP7SeP51bEAZSygqi5kwixnnZof_O1zylA0xZUHhcOhZggfRyWQCbt0IKnil9AOh-3WrA004XfoBfgRIIO02LGrocZid5OYoDQzVHUpGh-X0PzNPZekVB5UMJDilhnRaNTSl9vWH4p39e4tX0exNFF8iNKs/s320/9E4F8AA3-B65C-47BF-A948-78289817527A-COLLAGE%202.JPG" width="240" /></a></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">虛擬貨幣平台「綠石數字資產平台」(JPEX)疑於本港違法宣傳及經營,早前被證監會點名稱平台「無牌」並轉介至警方。商業及罪案調查科之後跟進,己經有83人報案,涉及金額達3400萬,是近年香港較大規模集體行騙事件。</span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">最新進展是JPEX 已公開「熄機」:晚上發出特別公告,宣布將於周一(18日)凌晨零時下架理財頁面的所有交易。 JPEX指,屆時用戶將無法進行任何新的理財訂單,而舊有進行中的理財訂單,則會維持至產品結束的日期才可領取收益。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>換言之,所有客戶都好大可能血本無歸。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">整件事先值得稱許是事件率先由明報作調查報道,轉介予證監會事件始被揭發,事件一方面反映獨立新聞的重要性,同時亦顯示監管機構「後知後覺」,引證我一直提出的觀點:香港不宜開放虛擬資產平台予散戶參與,否則類似事件只會一再重演。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">自從去年底港府發出一分所謂發展虛擬資產市場的「政策宣言」後,簡單講就是對全球的平台發出一分「邀請函」:「埋嚟睇埋嚟揀」,當然是「引狼入室」,據幣圈界消息透露,目前已有逾百間企業正就申請香港的虛擬資產服務供應商牌照作出查詢。根據官方最新數據,來自中國大陸、歐洲、加拿大和新加坡的20多家加密貨幣和區塊鏈公司已向港府表示計劃在香港設立機構,另有80多家公司表示有興趣這樣做。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">更大問題在於證監會及金管局為了急於求成,將過去幾代人努力建立的「審慎監管」原則棄之不理,其中證監會設立的虛擬資產交易平台新發牌制度自6月1日生效,理論上平台必須持牌才可在港運作;但唔知邊個天才想出來的措施,居然容許此前已在港營運的平台將有12個月過渡期,結果當然引來部分平台走法律罅。至於金管局亦為了加快本港發展成加密貨幣交易中心,居然罕見對三大發鈔銀行施壓,要求接受加密貨幣交易所作為客戶,甚至鼓勵銀行「不要害怕」,這在過去實在難以想像。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">由於證監會放寬監察設立了過渡期,像JPEX 就一方面對外聲稱會在短期內向證監會申請牌照,同時卻已經夥拍網紅大肆對外宣傳「吸金」,令到短時間內損失者眾,據稱在一個「JPEX 苦主群組」中,已有近5000人參與,反映中招者數目龐大。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">跟據證監會日前發出警告聲明,稱JPEX集團旗下實體未獲證監會發牌,引起公眾關注。不少投資客戶陸續報稱在平台要求提幣失敗,以在JPEX平台所見,提款額度被限制至最高1000泰達幣(USDT),提幣手續費改至999泰達幣,換言之即散戶最多僅能提取約1美元(正常情況下平台只會改取3-5個泰達幣),反映整個事件已經陷入了一個投資騙局。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">據報早前有散戶就因為看到有JPEX合伙人宣傳,受高達20%年利率吸引而將資產從另一平台轉移至JPEX,共投資近200萬元;得悉證監會聲明後,曾找JPEX客服希望提幣,客服解釋平台需增加整體流動性,要暫時提高提幣手續費,待平台透過其他第三方交易平台整合資金後會再調整。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">翻查紀錄顯示,JPEX與上市公司協同通信(01613)等已設立合營企業Jade Power,旗下全資附屬公司5月起在港營運虛產交易平台,並表示擬向證監會申請牌照,但事實上雙方合作從未開始。事件表明JPEX 早有動機透過聯絡知名機構或網紅增大知名度,同時亦向散戶招攬吸金。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">實際上JPEX 爆煲事件,正正源於證監會的過渡安排,令某些未獲牌照的平台已設立新公司,以在港提供虛擬資產服務,且公開宣布有意為這些新公司申領牌照,但實際上旗下產品未必符合新制度下的規定。不過基於香港散戶對虛擬資產及相關法例認知有限 (我甚至懷疑證監會內部有幾多人真正認識加密貨幣及區塊鏈的技術運作),根本無從判斷產品是否合規,自然容易誤聽投資建議而誤墜入投資陷阱。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">對於香港來說,加密貨幣也算是「老相識」。例如,破產的加密貨幣交易平台FTX就是在香港成立的。但是,一個不清晰的監管框架只會吸引很多加密貨幣公司,尤其是在太平洋彼岸的美國監管機構正在整頓該行業的時刻。美國證券交易委員會已經起訴了兩家最大的加密貨幣交易所——幣安(Binance)和Coinbase,聲稱他們經營非法交易。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其實香港去年底發出的「政策宣言」,源於是特區政府急於對外宣稱一切復常,希望急於求成並超越另一區內虛擬資產中心新加坡╴但事實是主導官員認知不足╴像主事的財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇,居然說「大家知道虛擬資產不會走(消失),所以更重要是如何有適當監管。」這是何等的無知!</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">有趣的是╴與許正宇同場出席論壇的金管局前總裁任志剛╴卻質疑虛擬貨幣欠透明度,「連資產負債表都無得睇,我就不會買,我都不知背後有什麼」,更笑稱如果盲目跟風相信虛擬貨幣價格上升,「我不如去賭場好過」。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">當外界將JPEX 事件焦點放到那位網紅有作出合作推介,我認為現在更重要是證監會盡快亡羊補牢,將所謂的一年過渡期凍結,同時列出正在申請牌照的平台名單;之後應再全面檢討應否開放虛擬資產予一般散戶參與,否則第二、第三JPEX 仍會出現。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%99%9B%E6%93%AC%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZV_5mCwI8nf2eJLECkzpvB8B5YJALCkuev0CHR18qQp0mMCSKhO0HEvS0QuMTEKZ9R6PFEStB_IcGNa_G-EURzRAeGeawfknwRuj6fYpqTSSg0AdrZJopxoSpetTRbiuqmULY1sGr0PPtuE7r6FmJYRDLxb0oZtUpPvwjxa5PopN7yFe0LVMphybzWF07ryBkg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#虛擬資產</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E8%B2%A8%E5%B9%A3?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZV_5mCwI8nf2eJLECkzpvB8B5YJALCkuev0CHR18qQp0mMCSKhO0HEvS0QuMTEKZ9R6PFEStB_IcGNa_G-EURzRAeGeawfknwRuj6fYpqTSSg0AdrZJopxoSpetTRbiuqmULY1sGr0PPtuE7r6FmJYRDLxb0oZtUpPvwjxa5PopN7yFe0LVMphybzWF07ryBkg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#加密貨幣</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/jpex?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZV_5mCwI8nf2eJLECkzpvB8B5YJALCkuev0CHR18qQp0mMCSKhO0HEvS0QuMTEKZ9R6PFEStB_IcGNa_G-EURzRAeGeawfknwRuj6fYpqTSSg0AdrZJopxoSpetTRbiuqmULY1sGr0PPtuE7r6FmJYRDLxb0oZtUpPvwjxa5PopN7yFe0LVMphybzWF07ryBkg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#JPEX</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%AD%89%E7%9B%A3%E6%9C%83?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZV_5mCwI8nf2eJLECkzpvB8B5YJALCkuev0CHR18qQp0mMCSKhO0HEvS0QuMTEKZ9R6PFEStB_IcGNa_G-EURzRAeGeawfknwRuj6fYpqTSSg0AdrZJopxoSpetTRbiuqmULY1sGr0PPtuE7r6FmJYRDLxb0oZtUpPvwjxa5PopN7yFe0LVMphybzWF07ryBkg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#證監會</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZV_5mCwI8nf2eJLECkzpvB8B5YJALCkuev0CHR18qQp0mMCSKhO0HEvS0QuMTEKZ9R6PFEStB_IcGNa_G-EURzRAeGeawfknwRuj6fYpqTSSg0AdrZJopxoSpetTRbiuqmULY1sGr0PPtuE7r6FmJYRDLxb0oZtUpPvwjxa5PopN7yFe0LVMphybzWF07ryBkg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-35006139662627516212023-09-20T04:42:00.004+08:002023-09-20T04:44:05.163+08:00唔好再讚證監啦<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBihWXCUsyRAZPF8jTT4zOTIRG_E9zOjrUoESWyt9x74ZNtoqW8_FrCVgZ2mIrR6BBMjCuJx6lAWP_a5D61pnG6le4-7_iiqW4XpEU2GU050Eg2so5B7UiVexexuZUiZ995Su_CbZZAokMifSES5HsIaZlt_AsxF1JstHyK_M_qy_xgOsv_9MWpyLvVDkI/s506/26B7796B-377E-4EE1-AF85-58D6A0C25B04.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="437" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBihWXCUsyRAZPF8jTT4zOTIRG_E9zOjrUoESWyt9x74ZNtoqW8_FrCVgZ2mIrR6BBMjCuJx6lAWP_a5D61pnG6le4-7_iiqW4XpEU2GU050Eg2so5B7UiVexexuZUiZ995Su_CbZZAokMifSES5HsIaZlt_AsxF1JstHyK_M_qy_xgOsv_9MWpyLvVDkI/s320/26B7796B-377E-4EE1-AF85-58D6A0C25B04.jpeg" width="276" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">先多謝《志豪Live》在節目中分享了我上一篇JPEX 「騙案」中有關證監會的角色,而事件亦愈滾愈大,甚至登上國際媒體,據報千四人已陷騙局,涉及金額逾十億,即是平均每人輸六、七十萬,再次證明香港人幾有錢(同時都好易被人呃)。</span><p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">近期開始聽到一些評論,稱許證監會執法行動果斷,又話早在去年7月,證監已經明確列出JPEX是可疑交易所,「一早警告左你」,因此投資者損手是自招損失,怪不得他人。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>我不是說墜入陷阱的投資者沒有責任,但留意在去年七月時政府仍未公布要發展區內虛擬資產䌔紐的所謂「政策宣言」,一切政策都在去年十月出現翻天覆地改變,香港由一個不歡迎加密貨幣的嚴密監管市場,搖身一變成為擁抱虛擬資產平台的金融中心,數以百計的交易平台正蜂擁而至,更荒謬是證監會自揭底牌,甚至容許認知不足的散戶可以參與虛擬貨幣交易,這一切都是源於財金官員急於求成,現在再列出去年七月的警告聲明,實在看不出有任何意義。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">逆向思維更加會想到,既然證監會一早已將JPEX 列入監察名單,過去一年多為何沒有出手?找不到證據?未有投資者報告損失?反而值得關注是,到今年八月,證監又發出一分沒有點名的『警告:經營手法不當的虛擬資產交易平台』,內容非常模糊,沒有點名列出『某些未獲發牌的虛擬資產交易平台,訛稱已向證監會提交牌照申請。』反而在附註中稱在6月起的一年過渡期內,已營運公司可繼續提供虛擬資產服務,這豈不是更加令人誤導?</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">到9月13日,證監終於點名JPEX 並指對方一概沒有獲證監會發牌,亦沒有申領虛擬資產交易平台的牌照。一個月前不點名,現在卻開名,原因大概是聲明中提到「證監會接獲散戶投資者的投訴,並注意到媒體報道,指有散戶投資者未能從在JPEX開設的帳戶中提取虛擬資產,或發現他們的帳戶結餘被減少及更改。 」即是到媒體揭發才肯揭露名稱。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">所以我很強調,整個JPEX 事件最大問題,源於在證監會在啟動發牌制度之後,設立了一個毫無透明度的「過渡期」:根本無人知邊間交易所申請緊邊間無申請,申請緊又合唔合符資格,抑或已經Reject?不論業界或投資者都不可能知道。(題外話,比我係網紅就會用呢個理由申辯,甚至可以引述JPEX 二月時曾表示會申請牌照,點知佢原來無做啫!)</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">因此最好的解決方法,就是除了公布已獲牌照的交易所名單之外,應設有「申請中名單」,正如港交所的上市公司制度,亦需要申請公司遞交上市申請文件,同時刊載於港交所網頁,之後再披露上市進度,幾時第一次過上市委員會、幾會被Reject,幾時又再上會,過程清清楚楚,容不下任何人講大話。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">現在儘管警方已經採取拘捕行動,但留意JPEX的聲明字眼仍然「企硬」,甚至批評證監會對JPEX施以不公平對待,批評有違政府希望將香港打造為Web3.0之都的政策發展方針,取態顯示JPEX的關鍵人士未有受到行動影響,目前亦未有報道提到可收回多少資產。明報就翻查澳洲證券與投資委員會及香港證監會資料,發現JPEX一間關聯公司在港註冊,其唯一董事和股東為郭浩麟,報住元朗朗屏邨,但無人應門。而報稱地址則為位於長沙灣道的共享工作空間,職員稱警方昨午曾持手令到場,最終無入內調查。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">JPEX自2021年起在港大事宣傳招攬生意,但平台的實際股東、負責人和營運地點一直未有公開。由於未掌握客戶資產是由JPEX哪個法律實體持有,亦不知該法律實體註冊地,現階段香港用戶若考慮民事索償會有一定困難,而且根據今年 1 月紐約法院裁定另一加密貨幣破產案中,更裁定部分客戶對其加密貨幣存款缺乏所有權,因此日後要索償可能需要經過以年的漫長法律程序,屆時平台持有的泰達幣是否仍然值錢,這又是另一個問題。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Anyway,總之唔好再同我講證監會今次事件處理得好,真係反面㗎!</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/jpex?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUkRisf3zcknEqbxvTIjGCB7eKU9qitd13hmKDyeeJk59i5TVZmzYnQUhitNjBjQxxNogXSkoOUq3Uxu3l_72mhgVr2hCxFZhvn8WSVTE2A4j0Yk1QpAvUjywfj1kB0KQjUFjOB-g4lqG1O7h5yZ1A5x9SsRpyPXQX67MPH03ISY3X_SNSQHho5qelNw2NYvzM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#JPEX</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%8A%A0%E5%AF%86%E8%B2%A8%E5%B9%A3?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUkRisf3zcknEqbxvTIjGCB7eKU9qitd13hmKDyeeJk59i5TVZmzYnQUhitNjBjQxxNogXSkoOUq3Uxu3l_72mhgVr2hCxFZhvn8WSVTE2A4j0Yk1QpAvUjywfj1kB0KQjUFjOB-g4lqG1O7h5yZ1A5x9SsRpyPXQX67MPH03ISY3X_SNSQHho5qelNw2NYvzM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#加密貨幣</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%99%9B%E6%93%AC%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUkRisf3zcknEqbxvTIjGCB7eKU9qitd13hmKDyeeJk59i5TVZmzYnQUhitNjBjQxxNogXSkoOUq3Uxu3l_72mhgVr2hCxFZhvn8WSVTE2A4j0Yk1QpAvUjywfj1kB0KQjUFjOB-g4lqG1O7h5yZ1A5x9SsRpyPXQX67MPH03ISY3X_SNSQHho5qelNw2NYvzM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#虛擬資產</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%AD%89%E7%9B%A3%E6%9C%83?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUkRisf3zcknEqbxvTIjGCB7eKU9qitd13hmKDyeeJk59i5TVZmzYnQUhitNjBjQxxNogXSkoOUq3Uxu3l_72mhgVr2hCxFZhvn8WSVTE2A4j0Yk1QpAvUjywfj1kB0KQjUFjOB-g4lqG1O7h5yZ1A5x9SsRpyPXQX67MPH03ISY3X_SNSQHho5qelNw2NYvzM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#證監會</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUkRisf3zcknEqbxvTIjGCB7eKU9qitd13hmKDyeeJk59i5TVZmzYnQUhitNjBjQxxNogXSkoOUq3Uxu3l_72mhgVr2hCxFZhvn8WSVTE2A4j0Yk1QpAvUjywfj1kB0KQjUFjOB-g4lqG1O7h5yZ1A5x9SsRpyPXQX67MPH03ISY3X_SNSQHho5qelNw2NYvzM&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-88835014848042465712023-09-20T04:41:00.001+08:002023-09-20T04:41:09.825+08:00 五十三年來的首次「搣柴」<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">【五十三年來的首次「搣柴」】</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ae4etDNxj8CB-PVRuFnp4ol6hGZijjowpz1fhKWz3fHH_MVR-6Zyt_S7qWh2AwBxJDkj1Sc2lfUxeezycNGI8Z3L4xTUldNKaEeY3a_AgsbuqiJtGLqG0JD9_9EL6jkzMvghNaOkBrcN3bpLUGusYEW7D2jNrn3adlsP27OXRq_t8xABewUxliQWx-0J/s565/CA02921E-143D-4440-8909-A6276088E6A7.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="565" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0ae4etDNxj8CB-PVRuFnp4ol6hGZijjowpz1fhKWz3fHH_MVR-6Zyt_S7qWh2AwBxJDkj1Sc2lfUxeezycNGI8Z3L4xTUldNKaEeY3a_AgsbuqiJtGLqG0JD9_9EL6jkzMvghNaOkBrcN3bpLUGusYEW7D2jNrn3adlsP27OXRq_t8xABewUxliQWx-0J/s320/CA02921E-143D-4440-8909-A6276088E6A7.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWWsFMycNR-vt6DnqvddALqG0i2FkoHCuP7mOrgF92GcqyZpCvNdeFempWcvGU221XT-pMKw3BDlHedFOKcMBP_ncGXLwju7wLobM5sz1DqwgD4a99KgHb23rXcRTotJD56xTr07EmF3dxKZNwFCvsHidlwy_DqWit-snj_BRWgJ4MMM3C9Usj3xh85gM9/s555/F59137BB-5E89-4A6B-8AE5-BEC75ED7F9EA.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="555" data-original-width="536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWWsFMycNR-vt6DnqvddALqG0i2FkoHCuP7mOrgF92GcqyZpCvNdeFempWcvGU221XT-pMKw3BDlHedFOKcMBP_ncGXLwju7wLobM5sz1DqwgD4a99KgHb23rXcRTotJD56xTr07EmF3dxKZNwFCvsHidlwy_DqWit-snj_BRWgJ4MMM3C9Usj3xh85gM9/s320/F59137BB-5E89-4A6B-8AE5-BEC75ED7F9EA.jpeg" width="309" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">香港自從2021年被傳統基金會自由經濟排名DQ,被納入中國部分,自此就只有加拿大菲沙研究所Fraser Institute 發布的《世界經濟自由度2022年度報告》,仍將香港經濟自由度排名為全球第一。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但在去年的排名,菲沙已稱這排名是基於2020年的數據,之後更表明最近來自中國的干預威脅到破壞本港的法治,事後引來特區政府發表聲明抗議。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">今天菲沙公布的《世界經濟自由度》報告,香港在經濟自由度方面首次未能排名第一,是指數自1970年統計以來的首次(首分報告由經濟學泰斗佛利民有分參與並在八十年代公布,但統計回顧至1970年),更罕有表明預計未來幾年將進一步下降。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">菲沙表明「自該指數成立以來,這是香港第一年未能在該指數上排名第一,預計隨著中國共產黨繼續壓制各種自由,其得分只會進一步下降,」</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">值得留意是今年的報告是基於 2021 年的數據,正正是反映《港區國安法》在2020年7月生效後的首個完整一年的數據。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">根據今年的報告,香港在該報告歷史上首次從榜首位置下滑。菲沙指出,新的監管准入壁壘、對外國勞動力就業的限制以及商業成本的增加導致其監管自由度下降。同時,「軍事干預法治」的增加以及對司法獨立和法院公正性的信心削弱,導致其法律制度和財產權的下降。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我統計了上述幾個指標的變化,發現「軍事干預法治」(香港沒有軍隊,大家都知是指甚麼東西)的跌幅,是眾多指標中最大,按年由6.67跌至5.83,指數是2003年以來最低,與2018年的8.3分比較,更是大跌了三成。至於司法獨立得分亦較2018年跌了一成,降至有紀錄新低,顯然菲沙是清楚掌握香港社會呢幾年的確實變化。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">菲沙研究所的高級研究員Matthew Mitchell稱:「香港最近的轉變反映的是經濟自由與公民和政治自由是密切相關的。中國政府的目標是鎮壓政治和民間異見聲音。這些鎮壓,加上政府控制私營部門的手段,不可避免地導致經濟自由度的削弱。香港的繁榮可能會因此受到影響。」</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">目前排名第一的是新加坡,其次是香港、瑞士、紐西蘭、美國、愛爾蘭、丹麥、澳洲、英國和加拿大。至於中國排名就在全球排111位,與去年相同。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我理解特區政府特別是財金官員,對菲沙研究所的排名是相當重視,今次有史以來首次被「搣柴」,對官員外訪要說好香港故事,顯然是一個尷尬局面,特別是財政司司長陳茂波此刻正在歐洲外訪,他之前已在網誌表明,「除了「請客來」,我們還要積極「走出去」,親身向外國政商界介紹香港在金融、科技,以至其他範疇的新發展和新機遇,也希望藉這些機會釐清一些偏見和誤解。」</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">對於官員一直聲稱香港已重新登上世界舞台,菲沙這分五十三年首次的「搣柴」可謂一場「及時雨」,清楚告訴全世界,新.香港到底發生了甚麼事。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BA%A6?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVhmV48e_MTzRqzuRFJOR6IWX83Hryh1c0ttjCA6vcvnGvEIXVds11oaxbfxPbKvFnnB1r291BX5zOd0Q4eCCIqEcCflyWPfdBR5qp7y3J6_ys97z5_Z8EyVvFBNIuC78KNYkRfg-37SdKPwber_PSV&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#經濟自由度</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%8F%B2%E6%B2%99%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%89%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVhmV48e_MTzRqzuRFJOR6IWX83Hryh1c0ttjCA6vcvnGvEIXVds11oaxbfxPbKvFnnB1r291BX5zOd0Q4eCCIqEcCflyWPfdBR5qp7y3J6_ys97z5_Z8EyVvFBNIuC78KNYkRfg-37SdKPwber_PSV&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#菲沙研究所</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%90%A3%E6%9F%B4?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVhmV48e_MTzRqzuRFJOR6IWX83Hryh1c0ttjCA6vcvnGvEIXVds11oaxbfxPbKvFnnB1r291BX5zOd0Q4eCCIqEcCflyWPfdBR5qp7y3J6_ys97z5_Z8EyVvFBNIuC78KNYkRfg-37SdKPwber_PSV&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#搣柴</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E9%99%B3%E8%8C%82%E6%B3%A2?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVhmV48e_MTzRqzuRFJOR6IWX83Hryh1c0ttjCA6vcvnGvEIXVds11oaxbfxPbKvFnnB1r291BX5zOd0Q4eCCIqEcCflyWPfdBR5qp7y3J6_ys97z5_Z8EyVvFBNIuC78KNYkRfg-37SdKPwber_PSV&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#陳茂波</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVhmV48e_MTzRqzuRFJOR6IWX83Hryh1c0ttjCA6vcvnGvEIXVds11oaxbfxPbKvFnnB1r291BX5zOd0Q4eCCIqEcCflyWPfdBR5qp7y3J6_ys97z5_Z8EyVvFBNIuC78KNYkRfg-37SdKPwber_PSV&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-70315357590740924212023-04-05T19:52:00.001+08:002023-04-05T19:52:10.268+08:00 三十而立的金管局:思良將<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij5SjvU2mLiLV1ot5gbctAbleYs0ezvhDZ7-lFzgTgE5iouMMTxNXhn_JWJoR2-UlBffYA-XIM05VT236XXOf1TS-tCkMlT7LE999iqUulvzJQiVuJiQI3LdXcAPy_RtGGDArbIhs8t4L7H92g1EADzTPAkjxG_bzHF5wwH9QFLre5SBMHEz5Ftn5c-g/s2970/20230331a3.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1980" data-original-width="2970" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij5SjvU2mLiLV1ot5gbctAbleYs0ezvhDZ7-lFzgTgE5iouMMTxNXhn_JWJoR2-UlBffYA-XIM05VT236XXOf1TS-tCkMlT7LE999iqUulvzJQiVuJiQI3LdXcAPy_RtGGDArbIhs8t4L7H92g1EADzTPAkjxG_bzHF5wwH9QFLre5SBMHEz5Ftn5c-g/s320/20230331a3.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGqf6w-NgLQqQ4pilWTIQo_KFOCjIv3Z1dWt74MD1c3ZA2xfLzUiSdfCzEPQTOiDvfzVvHu-CBJkRtFbtaRHY0nsp5m4rOwXen7g9D3gjXHWYTt2CRVxqIBv7l4SfxomBozNQQ_CGd8a1xtp_pGWmueAAkl0K4DSFEqnFf4OtJddEDi42RXsM1pe4Eg/s2207/20230331a4.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1472" data-original-width="2207" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGqf6w-NgLQqQ4pilWTIQo_KFOCjIv3Z1dWt74MD1c3ZA2xfLzUiSdfCzEPQTOiDvfzVvHu-CBJkRtFbtaRHY0nsp5m4rOwXen7g9D3gjXHWYTt2CRVxqIBv7l4SfxomBozNQQ_CGd8a1xtp_pGWmueAAkl0K4DSFEqnFf4OtJddEDi42RXsM1pe4Eg/s320/20230331a4.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeimm3R5o00WopPWr1ZOBIvCU9Kx_t03ncnDQBbFaaw66VsXxHwcJbgIzzM-8wg7zyNPfeTU4h-JRazg548LBjwtoK26FRl-ltsVsbDC8xHBqDP6dETTQ3PMQFcmJ_csOHuKXfvFUUOFKVj1IayM0Nhh5Wy7VOeNWzBpkPqv3A_nbRCF8paNW8RDzlmw/s2048/338576858_538220518461182_7847522083198009206_n.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeimm3R5o00WopPWr1ZOBIvCU9Kx_t03ncnDQBbFaaw66VsXxHwcJbgIzzM-8wg7zyNPfeTU4h-JRazg548LBjwtoK26FRl-ltsVsbDC8xHBqDP6dETTQ3PMQFcmJ_csOHuKXfvFUUOFKVj1IayM0Nhh5Wy7VOeNWzBpkPqv3A_nbRCF8paNW8RDzlmw/s320/338576858_538220518461182_7847522083198009206_n.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />由金管局發布的照片,看到的是熟悉的面孔,包括香港回歸以來的五任財爺及三屆總裁,齊集一堂祝賀金管局成立30周年。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">作為「開山始祖」,金管局成立最重要功臣當然是第一任總裁任志剛,但圖片所見,最令人留下深刻印象應是前財爺前特首曾蔭權,只見他露出近年少見的神采飛揚,久未重現的招牌「煲呔」重新登場,實在令人懷念那些香江的美好時光及昔日真正國際金融中心的威望。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>值得一提是歷任財爺由曾蔭權、梁錦松、唐英年、曾俊華到現任陳茂波同場亮相,卻令人想起近期新聞提要正是提到,香港政府的財政儲備由曾蔭權處理回歸時,足夠政府日常開支的28個月,跌至現時陳茂波手中僅得政府十二個月開支,是回歸以來最低水平,反差之大也許都證明了能力是一代不如一代,「 聞戰鼓,思良將」是我看圖想起的說話。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">現任總裁余偉文在《匯思》撰文「三十周年」,緬懷該局成立之初「連一個像樣的辦公室也未有」,回憶該局在1993年4月1 日成立時,當時同事要分開三個地方工作,外滙基金管理局的同事在金鐘海富中心,銀監處的同事在金鐘政府合署,更引述陳德霖曾說過,剛加入金管局時被安置在會議室工作,一有人用會議室自己便要「走鬼」,可見成立之初金管局資源不見得怎樣豐富。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">酒會主禮的五位新舊「財爺」以及多位金管局第一代高層均有到場,如時任副總裁簡達恒(David Carse)專程從英國回港,一位常居於馬來西亞的前副總裁沈聯濤亦有參加。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">簡達恒現在未必太多人認識,但當年由他一手負責香港銀行業監管,在此之前,簡達恆於1991年由英倫銀行借調至香港,出任銀行監理專員,負責銀行監管事務,在2008年金融海嘯後,更協助政府撰寫「金管局維持銀行體系穩定工作的研究報告」,為當局監管雷曼迷債不力作獨立調查報告,當時建議檢討金管局與證監會的關係,以及釐清兩者所擔當的角色和工作模式。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">簡達恒作為金管局第二把手,處事一向嚴謹,但對傳媒卻是出奇地友好,幾乎是有問必答,甚至擔心記者會弄錯數據,是一位好好先生,非常感恩見到他仍然精神飽滿。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">市場傳言首任及第二任金管局總裁任志剛及陳德霖一向不和,據聞當年任志剛被前財爺曾俊華架空,被迫將總裁職位交予陳德霖,一直對事耿耿於懷。如今看所有合照任陳兩人的企位都是一東一西,可見事隔多年二人似乎仍未冰釋前嫌。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">余偉文在三十周年的酒會上,以兩位前上司任志剛及陳德霖的格言,「居安思危、應對危機、站高望遠」,作為應對瞬間萬變市場挑戰的訓勉。但環顧今天的香港國際金融中心地位,只能說「俱往已」,以最近英國智庫Z/Yen和中國(深圳)綜合開發研究院共同發表最新一期全球金融中心指數(Global Financial Centre Index,GFCI),香港雖然排名不變,維持第四位,但總評分減少3分,排在「紐倫坡」之後,當中以人力資源得分最少,這反映在不論金管局、證監會、積金局近年面對大量人材流失,這個恐怕才是他們最需要憂慮的問題。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E9%87%91%E7%AE%A1%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#金管局</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%B8%89%E5%8D%81%E8%80%8C%E7%AB%8B?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#三十而立</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%9B%BE%E8%94%AD%E6%AC%8A?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#曾蔭權</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%B0%A1%E9%81%94%E6%81%92?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#簡達恒</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%81%9E%E6%88%B0%E9%BC%93%E6%80%9D%E8%89%AF%E5%B0%87?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#聞戰鼓思良將</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVL_AjmsE-gKK-vTNNl5tgx12He6R_rRiFqPZkFh3urVksbVHt-MYzyuG9X5CfIsAylMhGR8QnhzGCFBbnZwqUQKPcpOPxJFiAP8DbdcxkQGhqCNNvztYoFk9YiySLPiVyt2ZDB_y-asT6F6eEAHzXdzzCi7DQlDz1ZRyI3IUnjVqr9rsRPbeV6B59s6zm_-Lc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-65467567651702064452023-04-05T19:49:00.001+08:002023-04-05T19:49:34.398+08:00 不能核數的理由<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvbfXSTvddIhb8XHPwsY6oiDYpUk7XLfDHi2X3t_Oqrt_1uSAOxhkS8Mw593Dla37_LtQDyKCWpTFpbAF2Vk7dC4qvpcBGQkpplueFJoKR986Hyf7VwFCXWO65oEobxjctojeLL8vuJFxqke7Uh1DXyZIPpzG_ioUfnDYTvErAYuALH6W2TPrNpfoHpA/s624/335D92AC-4E55-4448-80DC-E6E85A2363A5_4_5005_c.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="624" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvbfXSTvddIhb8XHPwsY6oiDYpUk7XLfDHi2X3t_Oqrt_1uSAOxhkS8Mw593Dla37_LtQDyKCWpTFpbAF2Vk7dC4qvpcBGQkpplueFJoKR986Hyf7VwFCXWO65oEobxjctojeLL8vuJFxqke7Uh1DXyZIPpzG_ioUfnDYTvErAYuALH6W2TPrNpfoHpA/s320/335D92AC-4E55-4448-80DC-E6E85A2363A5_4_5005_c.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />港股業績期在3月31日完結,按聯交所上市規則,年結日為12月31日的上市公司,需要在年結後3個月或之前刊發業績公告。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">據港交所「最新上市公司公告」顯示,因為在限期前未能停牌公司數目多達59家,當中包括早前宣布創始人包凡失聯的「華興資本」、國美電器母公司「國美零售」及金融公司「寶新金融」。這59間上市公司以12月底作年結,卻未能趕及限期前公布業績,按例需要停牌,當中更包括去年12月才上市的花房集團。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">事實上,過去兩年受疫情打擊,影響到不少企業的審計,未能如期公布業績。以去年為例,就有32間上市公司未能於限期前刊發業績公告,故需要停牌,其中受疫情影響審計的有14間公司;另有192間上市公司的審計工作受疫情影響,但在港交所寬限下,公司可以有額外的60日寬限期,期間股票仍可繼續交易。而前年同期,利用有關寬限的公司僅有約27間。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">內地過去三年採取嚴厲的封城措施,期間外地包括港澳人士要進入內地進行審計,基本上是不可能任務,特別是去年初上海封城,就幾乎斷送了內地最重要的金融中心及製造業中心,事隔一年仍未完全復元,因此拖延了審計問題是情有可願,監管機構亦算是適當放寬了停牌限制,做法是十分恰當。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">只是在2023年的今天,不論中港都強調一切復常,內地所有防疫限制都除消了,甚至美國上市公司會計監督委員會(PCAOB)亦可以到中港商討「會計底稿」的爭議,理論上未有公布業績的公司應該比過去兩年都要少,何解今年需要停牌的公司數目,反而大增近一倍?</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">值得留意是,這批未能公布業績的上市公司,仍以內房及物管股為主,他們因未能趕在死線前公布業績,當中包括佳源國際、佳源服務、上置集團和康橋悅生活等。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其中停牌已超過一年的內房股花樣年發公告披露,核數師仍就公司去年業績進行審核。公司會與核數師合作,冀在實際可行情況下盡快刊發截至去年底止兩個年度所有未發布財務資料。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">眾多停牌公司中,以從事內地線上直播娛樂及社交媒體的花房集團最為觸目,因為上市短短約一季便未能如期刊發業績,雖然花房已在3月30日刊發未經審核業績,但最後因公司需要更多時間向其核數師畢馬威提供有關被凍結銀行賬戶的相關文件,故延遲刊發去年度經審核年度業績。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">值得注意是,花房的核數師正是「Big Four」之一的畢馬威,之前中國財政部亦暫停另一「四大」德勤北京分所經營業務三個月,稱德勤為華融進行的審計工作存在嚴重缺陷。而早前英國《金融時報》報道,在兩會前夕,四大之一的安永中國,其北京辦事的共產黨員被要求在工作時佩戴黨徽,且對執行細節有嚴格要求,以示對黨的「政治忠誠」。 </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">近日四大會計師行更被傳出中國財政部對部分國企進行窗口指導,要求他們日後不要聘用「四大」的國際會計師事務所,改為聘用中國或香港的會計師樓。PCAOB其後回應說,若審計活動受阻當局將會立即採取行動。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">過去一年四大在內地的業務顯然受到不同程度的打壓,很多均已退出不少上市公司的核數工作,當中如羅兵咸永道已先後辭任多家開發商以及物管公司的審計師,當中包括融信中國、寶龍地產和世茂集團。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">由四大會計師行核數變成內地或本港中小型會計師行接手,是否就代表上市公司帳目質數轉壞?答案未必一定,但四大在國際享有高度信任及聲譽也是不爭的事實,當內地在疫情過後更需要加強外來投資者信心,現在卻屢次出手對「Big Four」進行打壓,實在令人費解,唯一的理由恐怕是不放心將公司帳目交予外資審核,甚至聲稱可能是涉及「國家安全」。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">59家公司未能公布業績而停牌,佔相關公司數目僅3%,實在不是一個大數目,但這個背後「不能核數的理由」,所反映的是香港上市公司「劣質化」的變化,才是投資者需要關注。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%B8%8D%E8%83%BD%E6%A0%B8%E6%95%B8%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E7%94%B1?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXDvW6kcVlE_lfy0mLEU04Wx9XKivJbQ4ZI8owM6GRpg7-UFGVp-sy3yxk7Zsb97Kz7IDCNZQkm7DAm6JVqvhzhlS-X26NTR1atrJ88Vwzfy-BK18AlxdamMd0qW3LT60hvYPUHIfd2_zBpSb8e6Slc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#不能核數的理由</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%B8%AF%E8%82%A1%E5%8A%A3%E8%B3%AA%E5%8C%96?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXDvW6kcVlE_lfy0mLEU04Wx9XKivJbQ4ZI8owM6GRpg7-UFGVp-sy3yxk7Zsb97Kz7IDCNZQkm7DAm6JVqvhzhlS-X26NTR1atrJ88Vwzfy-BK18AlxdamMd0qW3LT60hvYPUHIfd2_zBpSb8e6Slc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#港股劣質化</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%81%9C%E7%89%8C%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXDvW6kcVlE_lfy0mLEU04Wx9XKivJbQ4ZI8owM6GRpg7-UFGVp-sy3yxk7Zsb97Kz7IDCNZQkm7DAm6JVqvhzhlS-X26NTR1atrJ88Vwzfy-BK18AlxdamMd0qW3LT60hvYPUHIfd2_zBpSb8e6Slc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#停牌公司</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%B8%AF%E4%BA%A4%E6%89%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXDvW6kcVlE_lfy0mLEU04Wx9XKivJbQ4ZI8owM6GRpg7-UFGVp-sy3yxk7Zsb97Kz7IDCNZQkm7DAm6JVqvhzhlS-X26NTR1atrJ88Vwzfy-BK18AlxdamMd0qW3LT60hvYPUHIfd2_zBpSb8e6Slc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#港交所</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXDvW6kcVlE_lfy0mLEU04Wx9XKivJbQ4ZI8owM6GRpg7-UFGVp-sy3yxk7Zsb97Kz7IDCNZQkm7DAm6JVqvhzhlS-X26NTR1atrJ88Vwzfy-BK18AlxdamMd0qW3LT60hvYPUHIfd2_zBpSb8e6Slc&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-56244995788900150702022-10-26T03:14:00.001+08:002022-10-26T03:14:48.950+08:00 一人獨尊的二十大:習家軍全面掌權,「團派」團滅,規範財富成新招<p><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2vv-2HZokfLDaoRryrFDQmi001rMLhzHxJgRjhpicVfj5o9X0wR_UGeG7NLCysKN3RYPN9WLOtTj5gLWkK4EuJ9cAC13nBGdiq3818t3JmyioiTUWi_80d4AWFzoC0A54sQsqjX0EoCreNXvYpJMZwdwW0lrRj79JtDa9IgxJoqKXk9khVQfJ-vAxRw/s526/B8B2A46A-AEFD-4FA7-8AC3-C5AEFB3A8F0C_4_5005_c.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="526" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2vv-2HZokfLDaoRryrFDQmi001rMLhzHxJgRjhpicVfj5o9X0wR_UGeG7NLCysKN3RYPN9WLOtTj5gLWkK4EuJ9cAC13nBGdiq3818t3JmyioiTUWi_80d4AWFzoC0A54sQsqjX0EoCreNXvYpJMZwdwW0lrRj79JtDa9IgxJoqKXk9khVQfJ-vAxRw/s320/B8B2A46A-AEFD-4FA7-8AC3-C5AEFB3A8F0C_4_5005_c.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />在剛結束的二十大會議,習近平獲得了第三個五年中共黨主席任期,有三點值得關注:<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">1. 作為中國幾十年來最有權勢的領導人,習近平沒有提拔明確的潛在接班人,由此鞏固了自己的權威。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">2. <span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>潛在的對手完全出局,包括昔日的領導及自己的好友,以及黨內所有改革派。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">3. 習近平在中共詞典中增添了一個詞語,提出要「規範財富積累機制」。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">說沒有明確的潛在接班人,是新一屆政治局常委陣容中,以習近平的盟友和門生為主,不過其他常委從年齡和經驗看,無一人適合成為繼任者。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">六名常委中除丁薛祥外,年紀均已介乎65-67歲,在五年下一屆任期時候,均已超過「七上八落」的不成文規定。至於現年60歲的丁薛祥╴是習近平「門生」,一向是擔任大內總管角色,沒有地方經驗,不視為接班人選。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">目前擔任中共上海市委書記的李強是國務院總理的熱門人選,但他今年處理上海疫情時候犯錯頻頻,加上從沒有在國務院內任職,提拔作為總理已是破格之舉,不可能再上一層,你問一問現在的上海市民就知民怨有多大。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">既沒有潛在接班人,即使五年後換屆,習近平仍然可以牢牢掌握權力,迎接自己的第四個任期。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">說到將潛在反對勢力將黨內領導班底全部汰舊換新,將領導層通通更改為習家軍,讓「團派」直接團滅,甚至還將團派出身的前中國領導人胡錦濤請出場外,已引發外界關注。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">在五日的會議中,令全球最觸目的一幕,當數是坐在習近平身旁的胡錦濤,在半被迫情況下被工作人員攙扶下並離開了會議大廳。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其實早在10月16日的大會開幕式上,胡錦濤蒼白的面色和灰白的頭髮格外引人注目,在一些中國問題觀察人士看來,這似乎是他在習近平時代影響力減弱的寫照,因為除了一些落馬入獄的官員,中共幹部通常會把頭髮染成黑色,所以在中途離場這段插曲之前,胡錦濤的白髮就是一個微妙信號,表明他作為黨內的一股力量的時代已經結束了。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">在內地,胡錦濤被迫離席的畫面無法播出,中央電視台只播放了胡錦濤與其他代表一起投票的畫面,但沒有播出有關他在會上中途離場的實況解說和影片,甚至乎在香港的媒體,都只引用新華社的解釋,說胡錦濤是身體不適,沒有過多「解讀」。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">值得注意的是,59歲的副總理胡春華未能成為政治局常委。胡春華是團派出身(共青團),早年仕途順利,一度被認為是接替習近平成為最高領導人的熱門人選。在中國市場自由派眼中,胡春華是制衡習近平的一股潛在力量。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">此前有消息傳出,李克強、汪洋、韓正、栗戰書等人的不續任原本是為了要保住團派中央委員胡春華,同時也希望習近平能對團派手下留情,不料習近平卻未將胡春華納入新任常委名單中,預計胡春華只能轉任無實權的人大或政協職務,反映「團派」團滅。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">習近平甚至對自己昔日友好,國家副主席王岐山一樣不信任,華爾街日報稱, 由2020年開始,中共清洗了兩名與王岐山過從甚密的人士—包括地產商任志強以及海航董事長陳峰,他們均是王岐山的朋友,今年春季,他們還拘留了王岐山的妻侄。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">雖然王岐山年齡比習近平大五年,但仍擁有獨立於習近平的相當大的影響力,因此構成潛在威脅。黨內人士說,通過審查與自己這位老朋友關係密切的人,習近平正在釋放一個訊息,即他將拆除所有潛在的權力中心,並恐嚇對手。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">類似手段也用在了陳元身上。陳元是老一輩革命家陳雲的長子,他在2013年退休前曾執掌國家開發銀行15年,先後擔任行長和董事長。陳元被廣泛視為「太子黨」中的領袖人物,近年來,黨的紀檢人員對陳元的十幾位親信展開了調查,包括至少三位前秘書。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">清除潛在威脅以外,多位現時主管經濟及財金政策的官員,包括國務院副總理劉鶴、國家財政部部長劉昆、人民銀行行長易綱、銀保監主席郭樹清等,均未有出現在新一屆中央委員或候補委員名單上,意味着明年3月政府換屆時,這批過去幾年像徵「改革派」的中國財金系統將迎來大換班,掌管重要金融與貨幣政策的人行,會有重大人事變動。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">縱觀本地媒體都以「開新篇」、「邁上新征程」來報道二十大閉幕,更可笑是,有本地財經報章甚至以「中央新班子就位 短線利好港股」做標題,引述策略師稱新一屆政治局常委名單,有很多具有全面能力與經驗的官員,反映下一次全國金融工作會議重點可能落在地方債與內房之上。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但如果了解內地經濟發展的觀察家都會同意,除了政治上會愈收愈緊外,缺乏改革派會令經濟更難前行,而更不明朗是習近平首次提出要「規範財富積累機制」。在許多人看來,這似乎是一個要把富人手中的財富重新分配給其他所有人的計劃。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">《新京報》解讀,作為首次提出的新名詞「規範財富累積制度」 ,意義深遠,特別是對部分先富、暴富群體的發財路徑加大規範,是規範財富積累機制的應有之義。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">有一些經濟學家認為,規範財富積累反映習近平可能在醞釀一項對富人增稅的計劃,也許是通過引入期待已久的房地產稅的方式,而最快可能在明年就出台。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">亦有策略師提到,中國較富裕的公民和企業可能會發現自己受到額外的審視,要被迫拿出錢來資助那些有利於中國國家利益的舉措。顯然,中國政府正試圖傳達一個資訊:「你被盯上了,最好小心點。」</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">華爾街日報就提出,習近平在表達自己的願景之際,或許會因為不明智地追求自力更生,而浪費中國成為世界頭號經濟體的機會。這可能成為一個歷史性錯誤。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%BA%8C%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZX3SH7egTFLVtrxlilp7uQVoeIHxOU621--36rPHrWlaweBq1_2keS34iRSPnj_8pVYL62IYCFrJeTWlTnTzZXz4oMDac6C4YAoMCuGiPe3Gcq9LFjnxiAlqY3KCyoRI-X2Om6m1mfAU1KxmQdoEwgcDIoJAWOlQN3eRX7NjQMVO2NOHE4rV0YojxsZRuxQq7A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#二十大</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%BF%92%E5%AE%B6%E8%BB%8D?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZX3SH7egTFLVtrxlilp7uQVoeIHxOU621--36rPHrWlaweBq1_2keS34iRSPnj_8pVYL62IYCFrJeTWlTnTzZXz4oMDac6C4YAoMCuGiPe3Gcq9LFjnxiAlqY3KCyoRI-X2Om6m1mfAU1KxmQdoEwgcDIoJAWOlQN3eRX7NjQMVO2NOHE4rV0YojxsZRuxQq7A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#習家軍</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%9C%98%E6%B4%BE%E5%9C%98%E6%BB%85?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZX3SH7egTFLVtrxlilp7uQVoeIHxOU621--36rPHrWlaweBq1_2keS34iRSPnj_8pVYL62IYCFrJeTWlTnTzZXz4oMDac6C4YAoMCuGiPe3Gcq9LFjnxiAlqY3KCyoRI-X2Om6m1mfAU1KxmQdoEwgcDIoJAWOlQN3eRX7NjQMVO2NOHE4rV0YojxsZRuxQq7A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#團派團滅</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%A6%8F%E7%AF%84%E8%B2%A1%E5%AF%8C?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZX3SH7egTFLVtrxlilp7uQVoeIHxOU621--36rPHrWlaweBq1_2keS34iRSPnj_8pVYL62IYCFrJeTWlTnTzZXz4oMDac6C4YAoMCuGiPe3Gcq9LFjnxiAlqY3KCyoRI-X2Om6m1mfAU1KxmQdoEwgcDIoJAWOlQN3eRX7NjQMVO2NOHE4rV0YojxsZRuxQq7A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#規範財富</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZX3SH7egTFLVtrxlilp7uQVoeIHxOU621--36rPHrWlaweBq1_2keS34iRSPnj_8pVYL62IYCFrJeTWlTnTzZXz4oMDac6C4YAoMCuGiPe3Gcq9LFjnxiAlqY3KCyoRI-X2Om6m1mfAU1KxmQdoEwgcDIoJAWOlQN3eRX7NjQMVO2NOHE4rV0YojxsZRuxQq7A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-16098748190213116982022-10-26T03:12:00.001+08:002022-10-26T03:12:23.041+08:00二級制裁風險加劇,香港已處於俄羅斯制裁風眼<p><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FA9O4yveGdmlzGbPCpDGdz3tLsHWQjTtrAd7QapV3WMl99PHJLT-68pvnCcQCvBlzWLPdcTdo3XCAnpnxdeomuFRiOIILevi2rjLCtV3_jI4FEbDtTC8CIfFXNRXWyLqwKwmHqx1UVJFi-LS4Ud53LD5j_HelqPZuws3HNc02Ham6kHj5mgVCvS_sA/s583/981A8707-1295-49E8-A642-EAA914F297D1.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="583" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FA9O4yveGdmlzGbPCpDGdz3tLsHWQjTtrAd7QapV3WMl99PHJLT-68pvnCcQCvBlzWLPdcTdo3XCAnpnxdeomuFRiOIILevi2rjLCtV3_jI4FEbDtTC8CIfFXNRXWyLqwKwmHqx1UVJFi-LS4Ud53LD5j_HelqPZuws3HNc02Ham6kHj5mgVCvS_sA/s320/981A8707-1295-49E8-A642-EAA914F297D1.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />一艘巨型遊艇「Nord」周三進入本港海域,10月6日起停泊堅尼地城與昂船洲間水域,事件將香港直接捲入俄烏戰爭風眼,可能更快面臨西方國家實施單邊制裁。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">這艘全長 142 米的 Nord ,由俄羅斯億萬富翁阿列克謝·莫爾達紹夫(Alexei Mordashov)擁有,價值高達 5 億美元,目前已停泊在維多利亞港以西。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>據追踪網站 Marine Traffic 稱,這艘懸掛俄羅斯國旗的遊艇於上週離開俄羅斯最大港口海參威Vladivostok, Marine Traffic 形容Nord 規格直迫一艘軍艦,因為它擁有兩個直升機停機坪、一個游泳池和一支補給船隊。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">莫爾達紹夫是俄羅斯最富有的人之一,他擁有鋼鐵集團 Severstal,被視為俄羅斯總統普京的盟友。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後,美國、歐盟和英國對莫爾達紹夫和其他寡頭企業Oligarch 實施了製裁。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">對於媒體查詢,香港海事處僅回應稱,不會實施個別國家單方面制裁(這與去年金管局回應銀行制裁問題答案一致)。英國《金融時報》就報道,美國已就該事件向香港政府發出警告,指港府的不作為或令香港成為俄羅斯寡頭的避風港,商業前景面臨的風險將大增。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">《金融時報》稱,美國國務院指香港作為國際金融中心的聲譽基於對國際法律和準則的遵循,而海事處針對此次事件的態度會鼓勵受制裁的寡頭來港居住,以逃避多個司法管轄區的制裁,這將引發外界對香港商業環境透明度的質疑。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">跟據目前香港的海事規則,除非獲得當局許可,否則來訪的遊艇不得在香港水域連續停留超過 182 天。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">這個「明刀明槍」的聲明,恐怕是美國有史以來,對香港最直接的制裁警告,起因居然只是一艘遊艇。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">報道引述香港中文大學法學助理教授Ryan Mitchell表示,若香港被廣泛視為受制裁的俄羅斯公司或個人的熱門目的地,本港面臨的風險將大大增加,他警告位於香港的公司或個人,若與受制裁對象進行貿易往來,或面臨二級制裁。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我在一個月前的報道”習近平力挺普京恐加大對華制裁,香港將殃及池魚?”一文中,已提出早前美國商務部將五家中國電子產品公司列入貿易黑名單,稱這些公司涉嫌在俄羅斯入侵前後幫助俄羅斯的國防工業,當中四間正是在香港註冊,恐怕會增加香港被「二級制裁」風險。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">而英國早前亦引用去年通過的《國家安全與投資法》,阻止香港的「超橙控股」併購該國軟件公司Pulsic,理由正是這間香港公司背後被揭涉及中國國企。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">值得留意,是長和上周提出與英國第三大電訊商Vodafone提出換股合併,每日電訊報報道,除了有關合併計劃可能面臨反壟斷法審查外,亦將面臨同一條《國家安全與投資法》審查,決定是否涉及國家安全問題。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">而有關制裁問題升級,甚至可能影響今年底在香港舉行的盛事--多間美資銀行高層11月將來港出席金融峰會,根據議程,遭美國制裁的特首李家超將演講。美國傳媒報道,有美國共和黨國會議員批評美資行參與峰會,並威脅加緊審查參與的美資銀行。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">新聞網站Politico報道,3名共和黨眾議員議員批評多間美資大行參與香港11月的金融峰會。長期批評中國人權狀况的議員Chris Smith質疑,金融機構與會,形同無視美國財政部對李家超的制裁。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">曾任香港美國商會會長、現任香港自由委員會(CFHK)發展總監的早泰娜(Tara Joseph)質疑,香港當局會以美資行參與為李家超「洗白」,反問美資銀行為何要參與其中。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我留意到上述有關制裁的報道,在主流媒體特別是電子傳媒之中,幾乎一概欠奉,是因為問題敏感?還是出於擔心觸犯國安法而自我審查?但這個問題實際上影響深遠,涉及公眾利益。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">如果最終香港因為一艘豪華遊艇被美方「二級制裁」,屆時禁止高科技、敏感科技進口,甚至日後特區政府被禁止使用美資科技,到時不論微軟視窗、甚至蘋果或Android手機都無法使用,甚至最終政府無法進入美元結算系統進行交易,難道政府採購要使用現鈔?我們的特區官員是否已經有後備方案?</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%96%AE%E9%82%8A%E5%88%B6%E8%A3%81?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXE_yOhGlj10DayCWKJxVfuTsU40PdPrqh5Zojo8LiO0fyp_zVKADfhWAwPY_2t4RPGCxyv61guIOPQvCek2pESEz-u1lStAo7EONWUGJ73aK14Tie9BCFO2b_YGeW0JNq7Wd2jV-R5mXKjLFSVJe1DupakuKo7xsLBU9NuQ4Is1zjyz1KaCYli2lVOYckyD3A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#單邊制裁</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/nord?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXE_yOhGlj10DayCWKJxVfuTsU40PdPrqh5Zojo8LiO0fyp_zVKADfhWAwPY_2t4RPGCxyv61guIOPQvCek2pESEz-u1lStAo7EONWUGJ73aK14Tie9BCFO2b_YGeW0JNq7Wd2jV-R5mXKjLFSVJe1DupakuKo7xsLBU9NuQ4Is1zjyz1KaCYli2lVOYckyD3A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#Nord</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E8%99%95?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXE_yOhGlj10DayCWKJxVfuTsU40PdPrqh5Zojo8LiO0fyp_zVKADfhWAwPY_2t4RPGCxyv61guIOPQvCek2pESEz-u1lStAo7EONWUGJ73aK14Tie9BCFO2b_YGeW0JNq7Wd2jV-R5mXKjLFSVJe1DupakuKo7xsLBU9NuQ4Is1zjyz1KaCYli2lVOYckyD3A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#海事處</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXE_yOhGlj10DayCWKJxVfuTsU40PdPrqh5Zojo8LiO0fyp_zVKADfhWAwPY_2t4RPGCxyv61guIOPQvCek2pESEz-u1lStAo7EONWUGJ73aK14Tie9BCFO2b_YGeW0JNq7Wd2jV-R5mXKjLFSVJe1DupakuKo7xsLBU9NuQ4Is1zjyz1KaCYli2lVOYckyD3A&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-43922300853249466912022-10-26T03:10:00.001+08:002022-10-26T03:10:49.692+08:00 放棄改革、更硬更紅的二十大<p><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQUmDAUNRw8fCqAScb6qCFZYcbO0PUAZZnsBX0JX8X9X2EP3PtDjq5VnCe_2Nd4AhtD7FbYoPH9kUs3eYyN3Ih6hK8IfvGkagO3c4Rj0dsXFi0E6qP5YkB31s-bYQ1N089op665iLUg36FR-CHzYeoX5mmciq4_cs07-78ZKQND1p03f2LQ1-aoIxqA/s1419/4594A762-31A5-4D43-8F3E-9A0BA4609BAB.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1419" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQUmDAUNRw8fCqAScb6qCFZYcbO0PUAZZnsBX0JX8X9X2EP3PtDjq5VnCe_2Nd4AhtD7FbYoPH9kUs3eYyN3Ih6hK8IfvGkagO3c4Rj0dsXFi0E6qP5YkB31s-bYQ1N089op665iLUg36FR-CHzYeoX5mmciq4_cs07-78ZKQND1p03f2LQ1-aoIxqA/s320/4594A762-31A5-4D43-8F3E-9A0BA4609BAB.jpeg" width="244" /></a></div><br />舉世觸目的二十大正式開幕,當然媒體最關注,是習近平在二十大報告中,重申疫情防控堅持「動態清零」不動搖,並稱「統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展取得重大積極成果」,顯然幻想二十大之後內地會放寬防疫要求的人,可以完全死心。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">另一重點是習近平在談及要解決台灣問題時,說法與十九大報告不同,本次報告措辭更加強硬,時隔20年,即在2002年的十六大中使用的「決不承諾放棄使用武力」的提法,再次寫入報告,反映習心中已有解決台灣問題整套方案。。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>至於本欄一直關心的經濟政策,包括會否放棄控制房地產市場的「三條紅線」及改變過去一直收緊科網企業的措施,恐怕又是另一失望。在闡述其經濟目標時,習近平重申了他對進入「共同富裕」新時代的承諾,反映過去幾年,中國對私人資本實施更大的控制,更均衡地分配國內財富的做法,只會進一步加強而不會放寬。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">明報統計了逾70頁紙本完整版報告,報告中提到「安全」、「鬥爭」等詞彙出現的頻率較十九大報告有所提高,相反「改革」、「市場」等則較上一屆減少,在宣讀版中只出現共10餘次;十九大時,兩詞在報告中合共出現超80次,反差程度正突顯未來五年中國會走上一條怎樣的道路。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">至於市場關注的下一屆新班子的人選,就要多一些時間才能清楚觀察:將於10月22日閉幕的中共二十大將選出新一屆中央委員會,當中包括370多名正式委員和候補委員,並將於閉幕式次日召開會議,選出下一屆中共中央政治局及其常委會人選,這七名常委將包括下一任總理,但最終名單要到明年春季的兩會期間才能敲定。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">今期經濟學人就以二十大作為專題,有多篇文章分析習近平在第三個任期後中國會面對如何的變化,結論是中共會進一步加強對權力的控制,甚至勝過任何其他考慮,而這種對權力的痴迷,將使中國變得更脆弱,但同時也變得更危險,「一個被孤立的中國可能變得更加好戰。」</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其中我推薦大家讀當中一篇專題:「二十大之後,會否有希望見到更好的政策制定者?」文中回顧過去十年中國的改革派,當中包括習近平的經濟顧問、副總理劉鶴;以及習的首任財政部長樓繼偉;擔任央行行長至2018年的周小川。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其他出色的改革人物仲包括政治局常委、在廣東實行市場開放政策而聞名的汪洋,以及曾被稱為“改革龍捲風”的郭樹清,至於周小川的接任人、現任人行行長易綱,亦被視為值得信賴,並且堅定致力於市場開放的改革者。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">可惜,縱使習近平身邊有這麼多出色的改革派,過去十年中國的經濟政策令大批曾經充滿希望的觀察家失望。特別是自 2021 年夏天以來,中國領導人採取了“笨拙和不恰當的手段”來追求相互矛盾的目標。其中包括對中國成功的科技巨企粗暴鎮壓,以及通過恐嚇億萬富翁來促進“共同富裕”。十年來,改革是大大退步而不是向前邁進。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">顯然在習近平的領導下,共產黨正在追求的不是市場改革或經濟增長,而是另一種國家偉大願景:習近平希望經濟不易受到美國壓力的影響,變得更容易受到黨的控制。它需要更硬更紅,而不僅僅是更大更好。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%BA%8C%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVY-h239COO7paiYDjeaRNRJANqUx9sUsuxdkwlrjhnntM7Ankgns_biRTpaxx4peE4XhdMICSQy6AwMRGsqYVzaBKp8IEE0XtlI7JgBfiQXAKLkSyIeBb_73iUUQOYR1uQ_mOW2uq3353AMlspTNX7BZoodA1rUGFuhkhieRGcIL9w6JVeRbCqWkoguoORiw8&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#二十大</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%94%B9%E9%9D%A9%E6%B4%BE?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVY-h239COO7paiYDjeaRNRJANqUx9sUsuxdkwlrjhnntM7Ankgns_biRTpaxx4peE4XhdMICSQy6AwMRGsqYVzaBKp8IEE0XtlI7JgBfiQXAKLkSyIeBb_73iUUQOYR1uQ_mOW2uq3353AMlspTNX7BZoodA1rUGFuhkhieRGcIL9w6JVeRbCqWkoguoORiw8&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#改革派</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%9B%B4%E7%A1%AC%E6%9B%B4%E7%B4%85?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVY-h239COO7paiYDjeaRNRJANqUx9sUsuxdkwlrjhnntM7Ankgns_biRTpaxx4peE4XhdMICSQy6AwMRGsqYVzaBKp8IEE0XtlI7JgBfiQXAKLkSyIeBb_73iUUQOYR1uQ_mOW2uq3353AMlspTNX7BZoodA1rUGFuhkhieRGcIL9w6JVeRbCqWkoguoORiw8&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#更硬更紅</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVY-h239COO7paiYDjeaRNRJANqUx9sUsuxdkwlrjhnntM7Ankgns_biRTpaxx4peE4XhdMICSQy6AwMRGsqYVzaBKp8IEE0XtlI7JgBfiQXAKLkSyIeBb_73iUUQOYR1uQ_mOW2uq3353AMlspTNX7BZoodA1rUGFuhkhieRGcIL9w6JVeRbCqWkoguoORiw8&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-19390984530791077382022-10-26T03:08:00.005+08:002022-10-26T03:08:49.324+08:00 搶人才是「換血」,留島不留人<p><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">重點要「搶人才」的施政報告出台,果然不負眾望,用了十個章節共近二千字講述「搶人才」措施,而且放在最首要位置,反映是「重中之重」。</span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我覺得唯一可喜是特首終於願意面對現實,承認「過去兩年,本地勞動人口流失約14萬人。」</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">不過我想補充一下,如果特首肯數前多兩年,他會發現香港總勞動人口在2018年8月的高位是400萬5千人,換言之過去四年減少的勞動人口,實際上是23萬4千人。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>好了,既然知道了問題嚴重,特區政府用了甚麼方法「搶人才」?逐一拆解:</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">1. 第一招是放寬「一般就業政策」和「輸入內地人才計劃」,這兩個計劃均是目前吸引外地人才主力,政府將放寬如僱主引入人才的職位屬「人才清單」的本地人才短缺的專業,則無須證明本地招聘困難,可直接提出申請。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">拆局:「一般就業政策」過去佔引入國際專才比重達四分三,針對的是非中國藉居民,但去年獲批數目跌至不足1.4萬人,較2019年高位大跌66%(可參考上篇「「搶人才」本末倒置,「留人才」刻不容緩」的附圖),即使吸引內地專才的「輸入內地人才計劃」,亦大跌35%。今次放寬簡單講就是企業聘請不再以香港人優先,但以過去兩年的跌幅,效果成疑。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">2. 第二招是取消「優秀人才入境計劃」的年度配額,為期兩年,同時優化審批程序,以吸引更多世界級優才來港;</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">拆局:雖然「優秀人才入境計劃」目標是全世界,旨在吸引高技術人才或優才來港定居,但過去幾年批准數目來看,雖然穩步增長,但去年獲批只有2000人,加上九成多均是來自內地,因此「優秀人才入境計劃」只是比多一個渠道內地居民申請來港工作。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">3. 第三招是優化「科技人才入境計劃」,撤銷聘用本地僱員的要求、延長配額有效期至兩年,並涵蓋更多新興科技範疇。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">拆局:「科技人才入境計劃」過去一年半只有不足一百個名額,講來都嘥氣。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">4. 到了重中之重的「高端人才通行證計劃」,合資格人才包括過去一年年薪達250萬元或以上的人士,以及畢業於全球百強大學並在過去5年內累積3年或以上工作經驗的人士。此兩類人士可獲發為期兩年的通行證來港發展,不設人數限額。 </div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">拆局1:年薪250萬即是月薪高達21萬元,這個門檻比想像中高,恐怕是要避免予人口實「搶香港人飯碗」。但這個高門檻與新加坡最近推行的「海外網絡和專業簽證」比較,相關月薪要求約3萬坡元,即約16.8萬港元,而且簽證期5年,明顯比香港的兩年優勝。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">拆局2:「高端人才通行證計劃」的另一賣點是合資格外來人才在成為香港永久性居民後,可申請退還已繳付15%的額外印花稅,相信對有意來港的內地專才有一定吸引力,因為他們過去都經常投訴香港買樓成本過高。但這個計劃最大敗筆不是要等長達七年時間,而是香港樓市已確認下行,額外印花稅甚至買家印花稅到明年仲會否存在?</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">四個主要措施我們拆解成效,雖然我也不想經常與新加坡比較,但看看人家今年上半年,新加坡外來人士的勞動人口已止跌回升,持有高級工作簽證的人數較去年底增加7100人,達到16.8萬人,已回復疫情前、即2019年底約87%水平。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但由吸引人才的措施,只是用一些不大吸引的條件去同全世界搶人才,針對目標其實是內地專才,看看整分施政報告內容相當清晰,透過基建項目及將政府總部北遷到北部都會區,實際上是與內地加快融合:施政報告提到「大灣區」次數有45次;北部都會區有27次,相反提及「國際金融中心」只有5次。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">反而政府對本地人才流失卻毫無招數,甚至另一邊以國民教育之名,「半強迫」公帑資助學校學生家長,每年要參與一項或以上與國民教育有關的活動,等於變相令更多家長會帶同子女離港,搶人才實際上就是 「換血」,留島不留人。</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">其實我認為今年施政報告最可怕是從「未來基金」撥出300億元,成立「共同投資基金」,這個措施恐怕是侵蝕香港的財政儲備,但篇幅所限,下次有機會再談。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%96%BD%E6%94%BF%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXCa1EoLgXpPugVENFKRapHc7C0Tl7j1QknV453WJN0ibIrHpLLrkuYMKxiN8mdLuRT2jlkrVeZ6Wr2zl9Co6keI6fHJJgf6KOy6glhQ_uiPypMZcs3d6BROahz1B10C04TGeIR5Y8ejdjbZO-r3NIEphqt0va5W3P4_p-FIQa4fHIm-H-wEvEm0cTdZiUJpQU&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#施政報告</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%90%B6%E4%BA%BA%E6%89%8D?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXCa1EoLgXpPugVENFKRapHc7C0Tl7j1QknV453WJN0ibIrHpLLrkuYMKxiN8mdLuRT2jlkrVeZ6Wr2zl9Co6keI6fHJJgf6KOy6glhQ_uiPypMZcs3d6BROahz1B10C04TGeIR5Y8ejdjbZO-r3NIEphqt0va5W3P4_p-FIQa4fHIm-H-wEvEm0cTdZiUJpQU&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#搶人才</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%8F%9B%E8%A1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXCa1EoLgXpPugVENFKRapHc7C0Tl7j1QknV453WJN0ibIrHpLLrkuYMKxiN8mdLuRT2jlkrVeZ6Wr2zl9Co6keI6fHJJgf6KOy6glhQ_uiPypMZcs3d6BROahz1B10C04TGeIR5Y8ejdjbZO-r3NIEphqt0va5W3P4_p-FIQa4fHIm-H-wEvEm0cTdZiUJpQU&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#換血</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%95%99%E5%B3%B6%E4%B8%8D%E7%95%99%E4%BA%BA?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXCa1EoLgXpPugVENFKRapHc7C0Tl7j1QknV453WJN0ibIrHpLLrkuYMKxiN8mdLuRT2jlkrVeZ6Wr2zl9Co6keI6fHJJgf6KOy6glhQ_uiPypMZcs3d6BROahz1B10C04TGeIR5Y8ejdjbZO-r3NIEphqt0va5W3P4_p-FIQa4fHIm-H-wEvEm0cTdZiUJpQU&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#留島不留人</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZXCa1EoLgXpPugVENFKRapHc7C0Tl7j1QknV453WJN0ibIrHpLLrkuYMKxiN8mdLuRT2jlkrVeZ6Wr2zl9Co6keI6fHJJgf6KOy6glhQ_uiPypMZcs3d6BROahz1B10C04TGeIR5Y8ejdjbZO-r3NIEphqt0va5W3P4_p-FIQa4fHIm-H-wEvEm0cTdZiUJpQU&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-6164922807465530592022-10-26T03:07:00.001+08:002022-10-26T03:07:36.390+08:00 生菜贏了<p><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp3Z8HCaPlZuNUtQAZzHyDEi-fgdPlEzb5RKkrWb3f0gTLSYWk7mwPUKuTUWsjlXMlEQUHo-WqQx8Pjn6KK67aCsHGy49dkcCGz5c2xZr8QcrN2TdQRqw3fbUKW0fOVY40Gz0HjvACFWRMvAwIcPAqKk_2SpCuTotXLVK4oRH5BzvvxoLjjwWdSUpcIQ/s869/B5A83774-34C2-4DF7-95C8-A1659DB84FEA.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="869" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp3Z8HCaPlZuNUtQAZzHyDEi-fgdPlEzb5RKkrWb3f0gTLSYWk7mwPUKuTUWsjlXMlEQUHo-WqQx8Pjn6KK67aCsHGy49dkcCGz5c2xZr8QcrN2TdQRqw3fbUKW0fOVY40Gz0HjvACFWRMvAwIcPAqKk_2SpCuTotXLVK4oRH5BzvvxoLjjwWdSUpcIQ/s320/B5A83774-34C2-4DF7-95C8-A1659DB84FEA.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Daily Star的小編為「生菜」戴上了一個小皇冠,之後奏起國歌,並將卓慧思相片倒下。<p></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-size-adjust: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">這樣的動作,在一些神奇國度,會否會被視為對國家領導人作出侮辱,甚至要出手打人制止?</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">還幸我們仍在一個有民主選舉制度的國家,政治人物犯錯仍然有制度約束他們的權力,甚至可以直接倒台,令卓慧思成為英國歷史上最短命的首相,超前了二百年前,因病去世的前首相George Canning(在位119日)。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">今次直接催化卓慧思下台,是因為星期三在國會投票表決用水力開採頁岩氣一事上,保守黨內部亂作一團,卓慧思固然無現身╴但政府內部亦都無人作主,反映是大勢已去。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但實際影響是在「迷你預算案」後,整個金融市場秩序已經受到破壞,市場對政府及英倫銀行不信任。甚至在英倫銀行行長貝利上周五一再承諾央行不會延長買債,市場還是堅信英倫銀行最終要轉軚。還幸是接任財相的侯俊偉(Jeremy Hunt),最終將整分財政預算「一筆勾消」,令英國國債市場回穩,才令英倫銀行不需要食言。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">所以有評論指,今次其實是貝利與新財相的一次「豪賭」,如果財相不讓步,到時英倫又會被迫出手,結果公信力勢必再拉低。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">星期三有一宗財經新聞較少人留意,說的是英國最大退休基金之一、英國電信的養老基金因為迷你預算案觸發市場崩潰,令最近幾周資產價值暴跌了約 110 億英鎊。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">BT Pension Scheme (BTPS) 擁有近 270,000 名成員,其在年度報告中的披露提供了對基金財務影響規模的最新發展。在截至 6 月底的一年中,BTPS 的資產價值同比從 570 億英鎊降至 470 億英鎊,足足跌價了兩成。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">雖然BTPS未有披露帳面值下跌會否影響分派,但在幾星期內資產值大跌兩成,其實基金都已經有一隻腳跌入爆煲邊沿。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">退休基金之外,因為國債利率急升,新聞報道不少按揭人士的苦況,按揭利率由過去平均約3厘水平,飊升至6-7厘,甚至有定息按揭加至十厘,除了增加供樓負擔,更多買家因為按揭被拒而損失金錢,可見民怨才是令卓慧思下台的最大因素。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">卓慧思下台後政局會有何變化?辛偉誠要捲土重來能否獲黨內支持?肥波又有無機會重掌相位?一切似乎都要盡快有個了斷,否則金融市場好快又會有一場新的審判。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%8D%93%E6%85%A7%E6%80%9D?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWqIpJlwGGz2ss55WbYaAauPZ2eQNxGtc6CDqlisnvRoKWzhKgqh5mJEultUyEYpJDjzW_41j58dMunMabbkD6zmL92drwNLMGi6tZGWAGkZavIErJmYmY3Fn0VMEO9nFpAIlm6jyaQWNoXPwm3HUlC&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#卓慧思</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%8B%B1%E5%80%AB%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWqIpJlwGGz2ss55WbYaAauPZ2eQNxGtc6CDqlisnvRoKWzhKgqh5mJEultUyEYpJDjzW_41j58dMunMabbkD6zmL92drwNLMGi6tZGWAGkZavIErJmYmY3Fn0VMEO9nFpAIlm6jyaQWNoXPwm3HUlC&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#英倫銀行</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%94%9F%E8%8F%9C?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWqIpJlwGGz2ss55WbYaAauPZ2eQNxGtc6CDqlisnvRoKWzhKgqh5mJEultUyEYpJDjzW_41j58dMunMabbkD6zmL92drwNLMGi6tZGWAGkZavIErJmYmY3Fn0VMEO9nFpAIlm6jyaQWNoXPwm3HUlC&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#生菜</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWqIpJlwGGz2ss55WbYaAauPZ2eQNxGtc6CDqlisnvRoKWzhKgqh5mJEultUyEYpJDjzW_41j58dMunMabbkD6zmL92drwNLMGi6tZGWAGkZavIErJmYmY3Fn0VMEO9nFpAIlm6jyaQWNoXPwm3HUlC&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-35823567324577446782022-06-07T05:24:00.006+08:002022-06-07T15:59:05.501+08:00消失了的報稅表<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip-VLxWZywvc261mTVnprHRicW2jSQL3gKJ5GPhxvx2XJ0fqQf-ywMgazzf0S50bLfNEBwEKpiTqV5IrHIWW2TdICTs7fId29sRwbpfjWzYN-JwQzh1OX9-3dyFBI4Za28gXpOPxn5D9jBTPwUP8NdiV6bR_OvrdaTYs2g4EwkdVtQ50upj0YdAYHRAw/s324/9BECAFDE-6657-474F-BF58-294AAC4267D7_4_5005_c.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="164" data-original-width="324" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip-VLxWZywvc261mTVnprHRicW2jSQL3gKJ5GPhxvx2XJ0fqQf-ywMgazzf0S50bLfNEBwEKpiTqV5IrHIWW2TdICTs7fId29sRwbpfjWzYN-JwQzh1OX9-3dyFBI4Za28gXpOPxn5D9jBTPwUP8NdiV6bR_OvrdaTYs2g4EwkdVtQ50upj0YdAYHRAw/s320/9BECAFDE-6657-474F-BF58-294AAC4267D7_4_5005_c.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br />今天有兩宗有關政府的財經消息,一個是政府的稅收,另一個就是有關大家供緊的強積金。兩個都是與大家有切身關係,但有認真探討這個關係的本港媒體,是少之又少。</span><p></p><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">先說第一個,稅局今天公布共發出約247萬份2021/22年度個別人士報稅表,包括56萬份電子報稅表,及191萬份紙張報稅表。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">大部分媒體都是搬字過紙,較有心的會提醒納稅人逾期繳稅將被徵收罰款,去年就至少有14萬人未能如期繳稅,被徵收5%附加費。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">如果有新聞觸覺的,就會提醒納稅人,政府建議由今個課稅年度起,設立住宅租金稅項扣除,納稅人或同住配偶繳交租金,可獲扣稅,每年上限10萬元。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但我反而關注,是今年發出247萬分報稅表的數目,翻查過去幾年,稅局發出的報稅表數目,之前兩年分別是262萬及277萬分,換言之與2019/20年度的高峰期比較,兩年是少了30萬分報稅表。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">2019年後發生過甚麼事,當然不用累贅。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">香港沒有移民人數統計數字,不過按政府統計處每半年公布的人口統計數字,當中有一個「淨移出人口」數據,由2019年年中反修例事件開始計算,下半年淨移出人口有1萬人,2020年上半年4.91萬人,下半年為9.64萬人,加上2021年的9.65萬人,合計已有高達25.2萬人淨移出。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">如果統計出入境處每日由機場淨移出人口,累計由2020年7月1日至今年4月1日,淨移出人數就是325,497人。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">而由積金局公布,累計去年全年,合共有約33000宗因永久離港而提取強積金,涉及90.14億元,按年大增52%。平均每個申請人取走了27萬元強積金。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">大家可以留意,稅局發出的個人報稅表,不會因應個人是否仍在勞動市場而決定。只要離開校園進入勞動市場,稅局就會因應你的僱佣紀錄向個人發出報稅表,即使你期間曾經失業或離開勞動市場,除非你被稅局評為「毋須繳稅」人士,才有可能不會收到稅單,否則即使失業仍有責任需如期報稅。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">如何界定為「毋須繳稅」人士?稅局沒有清晰界定,按不同人的經驗,應是離開勞動市場有數年時間,稅局才不會發出報稅表。(亦有試過沒有收到幾年報稅表後,稅局會突擊發出一分報稅表要你填補。)</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">講咁多,其實想表達稅局過去兩年突然少發了30萬分報稅表,不會是單單因為失業,更大原因是因為移民人士在離港前,會到稅局清稅,即是完成自己的稅務責任,之後就不會再收到報稅表。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">附帶一提,離港清稅是否要再交稅,很視乎你清稅的時間及期間有多少收入未計稅╴以及你之前的預繳稅-- 我自己在清稅時侯就可以獲得退稅(爽<span class="pq6dq46d tbxw36s4 knj5qynh kvgmc6g5 ditlmg2l oygrvhab nvdbi5me sf5mxxl7 gl3lb2sf hhz5lgdu" style="display: inline-flex; font-family: inherit; height: 16px; margin: 0px 1px; vertical-align: middle; width: 16px;"><img alt="😊" height="16" referrerpolicy="origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/t1e/2/16/1f60a.png" style="border: 0px;" width="16" /></span>)。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">翻查稅局同一期間發出的利得稅申報表數目,就大約維持19-21萬分左右,未見太大波動。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">香港少了30萬個報稅人(必須強調未必個個要納稅),以平均每名全港打工仔稅款為3萬元,簡單數學稅局就少收90億。如果打一個七折,即是當中只有七成人要交稅,少收稅項就有60多億。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">結合勞工處數據,自 2019 年年中起勞動人口不斷減少,至今只剩 376.5 萬,較 2018 年 6 – 8 月的最高位流失了超過 24 萬,兩個數字都反映離港潮對香港勞動市場/財政收入會帶來重大影響。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但這些觀察,政府不會提,本地媒體亦不會跟進報道。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">至於另一宗財經消息,是立法會通過強制性公積金計劃修訂,以便利強積金投資於中央人民政府、其中央銀行和三家內地政策性銀行發行或無條件擔保的債券。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">中央人民政府、人民銀行、農業發展銀行、國家開發銀行和中國進出口銀行將列為「獲豁免當局」,強積金成份基金可把最多三成的資金投資於獲豁免的債券。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我認為這個消息對供緊強積金打工仔,影響重大,礙於篇幅,留待下一篇再討論。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%96%AA%E4%BF%B8%E7%A8%85?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUxMsu2UzRrZyi7VFqJKm9162N9QrYL7SYJO7fxmDxEyU7aMi3AwHxcSRDnGe7XSLlkfNlJIURazt5pldS2ns72En7qnGlTydgA5zJUHtSubODRdQTpydGR506tdYqN-IcSmb_AtY6dMmChwroP8yB_ECdIwgf_ukzSCc1-Z3kstpMoh49CJDFeGkKR1gaHFFv3t3Ak53gqMznYZYqhmKXR&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#薪俸稅</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%B6%88%E5%A4%B1%E4%BA%86%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%B1%E7%A8%85%E8%A1%A8?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUxMsu2UzRrZyi7VFqJKm9162N9QrYL7SYJO7fxmDxEyU7aMi3AwHxcSRDnGe7XSLlkfNlJIURazt5pldS2ns72En7qnGlTydgA5zJUHtSubODRdQTpydGR506tdYqN-IcSmb_AtY6dMmChwroP8yB_ECdIwgf_ukzSCc1-Z3kstpMoh49CJDFeGkKR1gaHFFv3t3Ak53gqMznYZYqhmKXR&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#消失了的報稅表</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E9%9B%A2%E6%B8%AF%E6%BD%AE?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUxMsu2UzRrZyi7VFqJKm9162N9QrYL7SYJO7fxmDxEyU7aMi3AwHxcSRDnGe7XSLlkfNlJIURazt5pldS2ns72En7qnGlTydgA5zJUHtSubODRdQTpydGR506tdYqN-IcSmb_AtY6dMmChwroP8yB_ECdIwgf_ukzSCc1-Z3kstpMoh49CJDFeGkKR1gaHFFv3t3Ak53gqMznYZYqhmKXR&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#離港潮</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUxMsu2UzRrZyi7VFqJKm9162N9QrYL7SYJO7fxmDxEyU7aMi3AwHxcSRDnGe7XSLlkfNlJIURazt5pldS2ns72En7qnGlTydgA5zJUHtSubODRdQTpydGR506tdYqN-IcSmb_AtY6dMmChwroP8yB_ECdIwgf_ukzSCc1-Z3kstpMoh49CJDFeGkKR1gaHFFv3t3Ak53gqMznYZYqhmKXR&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-1495754212771974382022-05-27T06:08:00.001+08:002022-05-27T06:08:22.547+08:00 穩住大盤— 一個人統治的危險?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3Pxp3De2yWLpcnyMjU0HaYb5Kt5PBI7XUd2r1Vtz4nNpzjGCDlHPKSGIp2Cmp3Aab1Y8FfpUWeq_LF13QXbA0mtTQMKCso4l-2P40zUM2CqYbyCnfYwMw8jos4VJE43qkOfHoyfjjt_nPrCEsRlWRjb37l3Z8plZpTtht7X_2imrRWtShNp23K9gs_g/s1424/20220528_LDD001.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1424" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3Pxp3De2yWLpcnyMjU0HaYb5Kt5PBI7XUd2r1Vtz4nNpzjGCDlHPKSGIp2Cmp3Aab1Y8FfpUWeq_LF13QXbA0mtTQMKCso4l-2P40zUM2CqYbyCnfYwMw8jos4VJE43qkOfHoyfjjt_nPrCEsRlWRjb37l3Z8plZpTtht7X_2imrRWtShNp23K9gs_g/s320/20220528_LDD001.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">近日轉趨高調的李克強,罕見召集十萬幹部舉行電話工作會議,反映的是過去一個月,他已經不再避嫌,真正走由幕後轉到台前,變成指揮全國救經濟的總指揮。</span></p><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">過去十年李克強的紀錄,他總是站在習近平背後,主要是負責執行工作。但今次會議幾乎動員了全國上下的所有重要官員,包括多名政治局常委,唯獨是沒有了習近平,說明了什麼呢?答案只有兩個,其一就是習近平 願意放下權力到李克強身上,另一個可能,就是習近平受黨內元老壓力不能夠參與今次的救市工作,變成是對李克強的一個考驗。 </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">翻查紀錄,在過去10年李克強擔任總理的時間,幾乎都沒有出現這種重要的全員幹部會議。更值得關注是╴這兩位中國最高層最近發表的講話,試圖安撫對中國嚴格的防疫措施愈發不滿的外國高管,但二人似乎發出不同聲音。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">華爾街日報報道,習近平在5月18日的影片講話中談到了全球因新冠疫情而遇到的經濟挑戰,但基本未提及中國自身的經濟下滑。而一天之後,李克強在北京釣魚台國賓館對一群跨國公司的高管表示,中國致力於在推動經濟發展和遏制反覆暴發的新冠疫情之間取得平衡。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">特別值得注意的是,一些與會者稱李克強沒有為習近平的清零戰略進行辯護,據與會者稱,在回應高管關於中國應為更多人、尤其是老年人接種疫苗的建議時,李克強說,我聽到了你們關於疫苗的資訊,我們將擴大疫苗接種範圍。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">更有趣的畫面是,多名與會者稱,在長達一個半小時的會議期間,李克強一次也沒有提到習近平的動態清零政策。他一走進釣魚台的會議室,就摘下了口罩。而在他結束會議,一邊往外走一邊與與會者交談時,陪同的工作人員不得不提醒他戴上口罩。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">一些與會者表示,在北京嚴格的抗疫規定下,李克強似乎無視戴口罩規定的做法值得注意,而這與之前李克強訪雲大時,全程未戴口罩做法一致。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">留意李克強在全國電話工作會議講話,他表明從3月開始到4月份以來,一些經濟指標明顯走低,“困難在某些方面和一定程度上比2020年疫情嚴重衝擊時還大”,因此要努力確保二季度經濟合理增長和失業率儘快下降。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">這個「穩住大盤」的潛台辭,正是中國經濟已經不穩,特別是李克強擔心的失業率問題:四月的失業率已升至6.1%逾兩年高位,當中16至24歲青年失業率更達18.2%的新高,而且今年更會湧出破紀錄的1076萬大專畢業生,在科網平台普遍遭受打壓不得不採取裁員措施,失業情況只會更趨惡劣。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">今期經濟學人以”中國經濟放緩- 意識形態與繁榮”為封面(見圖),表明習近平如何損害中國經濟:清零政策令全國超過 2 億人的生活受到限制,更多的損害來自他推行的意識形態措施「共同富裕」。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">一連串的罰款、新法規和清洗導致佔國內生產總值 8% 的科技行業停滯不前。同時對佔GDP 的五分之一以上的房地產行業進行的野蠻但不徹底的鎮壓導致資金緊縮——這也是 4 月份房屋銷售量同比下降 47% 的原因。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">經濟學人亦有留意到,近日在社交媒體廣泛散播中國領導層內部不和諧的謠言,以及李克強的地位受到更多關注,但正如我們上篇的結論一樣,經濟學人亦指在習近平的清洗和運動在官僚機構中引發的恐懼,以及他對媒體的控制,幾乎沒有證據表明習近平會面臨挑戰。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">雖然人們在網上發洩關於封鎖和失業的言論,但由於監視、宣傳和對黨的廣泛支持,這不太可能轉化為騷亂,現年 68 歲的習近平在二十大中肯定沒有對手。然而,這種以意識形態主導的政經局面,即使今天真的能「穩住大盤」,但這種「一個人統治的缺陷是顯而易見的。」</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%A9%A9%E4%BD%8F%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZW6Lk9UQrlQYZNrqZOrRWRmrGC5wPDD192T0coI8SR1kmjJ_9s4YE6VtzerjbMUbcm78uzuVYzOJw797PtsO25xyxvCu7hKZcSvbPS7hngE8RdAttMfj_VS8zOa3lVjsuVGA9hYk-u0PZrUUDLgtriVkMfmNdBR6xGFeHIxhCPL-Q&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#穩住大盤</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%90%8D%E5%AE%B3%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZW6Lk9UQrlQYZNrqZOrRWRmrGC5wPDD192T0coI8SR1kmjJ_9s4YE6VtzerjbMUbcm78uzuVYzOJw797PtsO25xyxvCu7hKZcSvbPS7hngE8RdAttMfj_VS8zOa3lVjsuVGA9hYk-u0PZrUUDLgtriVkMfmNdBR6xGFeHIxhCPL-Q&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#損害中國經濟</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%84%8F%E8%AD%98%E5%BD%A2%E6%85%8B%E8%88%87%E7%B9%81%E6%A6%AE?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZW6Lk9UQrlQYZNrqZOrRWRmrGC5wPDD192T0coI8SR1kmjJ_9s4YE6VtzerjbMUbcm78uzuVYzOJw797PtsO25xyxvCu7hKZcSvbPS7hngE8RdAttMfj_VS8zOa3lVjsuVGA9hYk-u0PZrUUDLgtriVkMfmNdBR6xGFeHIxhCPL-Q&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#意識形態與繁榮</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%B8%80%E5%80%8B%E4%BA%BA%E7%9A%84%E7%B5%B1%E6%B2%BB?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZW6Lk9UQrlQYZNrqZOrRWRmrGC5wPDD192T0coI8SR1kmjJ_9s4YE6VtzerjbMUbcm78uzuVYzOJw797PtsO25xyxvCu7hKZcSvbPS7hngE8RdAttMfj_VS8zOa3lVjsuVGA9hYk-u0PZrUUDLgtriVkMfmNdBR6xGFeHIxhCPL-Q&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#一個人的統治</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZW6Lk9UQrlQYZNrqZOrRWRmrGC5wPDD192T0coI8SR1kmjJ_9s4YE6VtzerjbMUbcm78uzuVYzOJw797PtsO25xyxvCu7hKZcSvbPS7hngE8RdAttMfj_VS8zOa3lVjsuVGA9hYk-u0PZrUUDLgtriVkMfmNdBR6xGFeHIxhCPL-Q&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-10792408013923976902022-05-27T06:07:00.001+08:002022-05-27T06:07:11.438+08:00權力遊戲——由經濟數據看內部權鬥<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHX2TcNqD4ol_CaaMpsIoR6QYUzh31Z_Be2nswq3nIAwPmYBe52aGYKhetQj3Kqr_KGKKQBJrJ34rip-lsBdC-W1kXZxG8K1Y74v3YsIz76ZZJzPMTxPTvHUMgyFSDtK3x5qj4VcCPy50buQf3PGjAfVukT81A0iGe-xNyWuZU7if9LPiN8Pi1Yg3BzQ/s620/070871b1-af98-4152-8130-40701fbb3cc7.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="620" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHX2TcNqD4ol_CaaMpsIoR6QYUzh31Z_Be2nswq3nIAwPmYBe52aGYKhetQj3Kqr_KGKKQBJrJ34rip-lsBdC-W1kXZxG8K1Y74v3YsIz76ZZJzPMTxPTvHUMgyFSDtK3x5qj4VcCPy50buQf3PGjAfVukT81A0iGe-xNyWuZU7if9LPiN8Pi1Yg3BzQ/s320/070871b1-af98-4152-8130-40701fbb3cc7.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">內地疫情持續,受上海等多地封控影響,被稱為「三頭馬車」的工業、零售及固定投資,四月數據全遜預期,工業及零售大幅下跌創逾兩年新低,前四個月投資按年增速亦降至年內低位,全國城鎮調查失業率相應升至逾兩年高位。</span></p><div id="storytext" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;"><img alt="comimage.jpg" class="image-richtext image-inline" src="https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/commentaries/po/com-05232022100033.html/comimage.jpg/@@images/e8f8abc8-7269-4abd-9875-992095ae1301.jpeg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; height: auto; margin-right: 15px; margin-top: 10px; max-width: 100%; padding-bottom: 5px; vertical-align: middle; width: auto;" title="comimage.jpg" /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當中最觸目驚心,是一直認為是增長火車頭的社會消費品零售總額按年大跌11.1%,遠遜市場預期的負6.6%,為2020年3月首次爆發疫情以來最低,反映全國「降級消費」已成主流。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">但與其將重點放在經濟有幾差,我反而覺得數據背後有兩點極不尋常,值得思考的理由:</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">1. 官方的政策反應並不強烈。雖然政府高層圍繞支撐經濟進行大量討論,但現實是,到目前為止,實際的政策反應異常平淡,幾乎是以「不作為」應對。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">2. 四月份經濟數據令很多人驚訝,不只因為數據惡劣,更在於「這麼差的數據也可以發布」,背後原因值得深究:是否有人刻意強調、甚至放大經濟放緩效應?</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">針對第一個問題,與過去幾次內地公布極差數據同時,人行往往會在同日出手,包括調低指標利率或存準金率,被視為是作出救市的政策回應。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">但是今次甚麼也沒有發生。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當然,有評論指人行早在5月15日,已事先表態將下調首次購房者的抵押貸款利率下限,即是減按息。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">之後在上周五(20日),又再出乎市場意料調低5年期以上品種貸款市場報價利率(LPR)達0.15厘,降至4.45厘,但同時1年期LPR則維持在3.7厘水平不變,是2019年LPR改革以來首次單邊下調5年期以上品種。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">分析認為,只減5年期LPR反映政府穩定房地產市場的決心,料可同時提升買地意欲,支持地方政府財政,同時亦有利較長期的基建項目融資。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">有經濟報章大字標題:「人行出大招」形容今次下調LPR,但是正如不少經濟學家指出,如果人們不能出去看房,那政策差別根本不大,而維持一年期LPR即是短期利率,亦救不了早已陷入水深火熱的小微企。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">針對第二個疑問,我認為在這個敏感時刻似乎更加關鍵。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">《經濟學人》以「When bad data are good」形容上周一(16日)出爐的三頭馬車數據,指國統局願意公布一系列比經濟學家想像更差的數據,表明中央是面對現實,不再以過去人為手段「修正」國內生產總值數據。「中國的許多經濟指標可能正在急劇萎縮,但他們的可信度有所上升。 」</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">我認為這想法頗為片面,乏略了中國的政治因素,特別是十月即將舉行的二十大。中共內部已掀起了一場權力鬥爭。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">過去數天,內地已是傳聞滿天飛,包括今年下半年的中共二十大會有驚人變化。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">首先是《華爾街日報》刊登了一篇《李克強走出習近平陰影,努力修復中國經濟》的文章,指過去一直被邊緣化的李克強,正憑自身影響力「重新活躍」,成為中國政府高層「近十年未見」的潛在制衡力量,在中國陷入近年來最嚴重的經濟困境之際,李克強正在發揮作用,力促習近平回調一些導致中國遠離西式資本主義並部分導致中國經濟放緩的措施。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">翻查今個月以來,李克強現身官媒次數,的確非比尋常:</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">20/5 李克強主持國務院第七次全體會議,任命李家超為第六任行政長官。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />19/5 李克強周二至周四(19日)在雲南省曲靖、昆明考察。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />18/5 李克強主持召開穩增長穩市場主體保就業座談會。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />14/5 《人民日報》和新華社同時刊登了李克強在國務院第五次廉政工作會議上的講話,全文超過九千字。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />11/5 李克強主持召開國務院常務會議,計劃向中央發電企業撥付500億元人民幣再生能源補貼。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />7/5 李克強在全國穩就業工作電視電話會議上作重要批示。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當然習近平亦有反擊跡象,先是中共對元老級人物下達了「封口令」,不許妄議中央,疑似是重點針對曾批評習近平尋求永續連任的前總理朱鎔基。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">到近日《華爾街日報》再爆料,指中共中央組織部今年3月發出內部禁令,明言將禁止擢升那些配偶或子女在國外擁有大量資產的高級幹部,報道認為,此舉可能是習近平加強今年換屆影響力的其中一項措施,反映內部權力鬥爭正在加劇。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">顯然官方願意釋出接近真實數據,背後一定是別有用心,考慮到國統局是發改委屬下機構,上任局長寧吉喆更是兼任發改委副主任,屬國務院直屬機構,相信作為國務院總理的李克強對國統局有足夠的影響力。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">李克強會取代習近平嗎?坊間炒作「習落李上」,我認為可能性不大,始終習近平是近代第一人權力集中程度不下毛澤東,加上有先進的大數據及監控技術,要造反是絕不可能。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">而且這樣的巨變,必然會在國內外做成極大震盪,甚至會動搖整個中共的管治,一旦失控更可能重蹈十年文革的災難。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">但習尋求個人永續連任,已經引起黨內元老不滿,加上近因是國內「動態清零」搞到民間怨聲載道,上海的封控更引發了廣泛的憤怒情緒,令習近平原來心目中的下任總理候選人、上海市委書記李強,招致了黨內批評。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">因此真正尋求一個可以制肘習近平的總理人選,應是共產黨元老的共識。據報李克強力挺的候選人,包括汪洋和胡春華都可能獲得更大支持。汪洋是全國政協主席,胡春華是現任國務院副總理,負責外貿外資事務。兩人都曾在共青團擔任過職務。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">這樣的局面對香港有甚麼影響?行政長官唯一參選人李家超,已經獲李克強任命為第六任特首,恐怕中南海有甚麼人事變動,都不會改變這個事實。但這位由領導人挑選的特首,日後面對中央權鬥可能令李家超面對更大制衡,甚至可能出現政策前後矛盾,新屆特區政府如何確保自己不會站錯邊,將會是值得觀察的課題。<br /></p></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-54839252437572584352022-05-20T03:17:00.003+08:002022-05-20T03:17:26.372+08:00爭奪港股定價權——人民幣計價股票 港元會被邊緣化嗎?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGNU_C_xYgMWNHgbnPUOl2H7hOg3XPCHLq6ZO46c8dBqu8CRaCfv5llFo9TAK012bQcFYZp-7AKVXIGtFh3uDdtUjtiSpct6iGbeXI6EbfLvQyb1Je-INiKnIoECVf-DbeY0Q0MdMnUWdyA6im3VceimQpOImSGy2-tRhjdLp_241MYKDqikBLLCuC6g/s620/39a52103-38a9-4430-b720-02664ca0625d.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="620" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGNU_C_xYgMWNHgbnPUOl2H7hOg3XPCHLq6ZO46c8dBqu8CRaCfv5llFo9TAK012bQcFYZp-7AKVXIGtFh3uDdtUjtiSpct6iGbeXI6EbfLvQyb1Je-INiKnIoECVf-DbeY0Q0MdMnUWdyA6im3VceimQpOImSGy2-tRhjdLp_241MYKDqikBLLCuC6g/s320/39a52103-38a9-4430-b720-02664ca0625d.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><a href="https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/commentaries/po/com-05092022081420.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0645ad; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">上篇</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">探討了香港有可能被移出SWIFT的備用方案,坊間亦出現不同角度的討論,包括數名中港學者認為現時人民幣已經足夠強大,認同「新香港」要有「底線思維」,在當今中美關係惡化環境下,應考慮港元儘早與美元脫鉤,港元可以改為與人民幣或一籃子貨幣掛鉤,相信脫鉤有利於國家。</span><p></p><div id="storycontainer" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 916px;"><div id="storycontent" style="box-sizing: border-box; float: left; font-family: "Noto Sans TC", sans-serif; width: 620px;"><div id="storypagemaincol" style="box-sizing: border-box; float: left; width: 620px;"><div id="storytext" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">我認為有人刻意放出港元要與人民幣掛鉤的訊息,是別有用心的人在地緣政治不明朗下,希望採取措施包括推出人民計價股票,加快人民幣國際化步伐,代價甚至是不惜逐步邊緣化港元,以及把港股定價權拱手相讓,好讓<br />港元能夠脫離美元制衡,能早日與人民幣掛鉤。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">「人民幣計價股票」是去年八月由前金管局總裁任志剛提出,要把人民幣以國際貨幣的方式有意義地推向國際市場,包括開放50隻至60隻恒指成份股,以人民幣計算、報價、交易及結算,投資者可以自行決定用哪個貨幣,例如用人民幣買入,沽貨時用港幣取回款項。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">過去三年全球受疫情打擊,加上俄烏戰爭令反全球化成為大趨勢,人民幣國際化步伐可以說是停滯不前,以中國作為全球最大貿易國,但人民幣跨境貿易結算僅佔全球貿易總額約15%至20%,遠比不上美元的主導地位。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">因此,有內地媒體及本港學者,均提出香港作為人民幣最大的離岸交易平台,責無旁貸,應執行「國家任務」,發揮樞紐角色使人民幣國際化更進一步。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">先回顧一下歷史:前港交所總裁李小加,在2014年提出「互聯互通」,當時可以說是非常聰明的設計:在港股通機制下,內地投資者以人民幣買賣港股,需要透過閉環交易系統自動完成換匯,換句話說,買的港股以港幣計價,交收卻以人民幣資金兌換港幣。內地資金由買入到賣出,都不涉及中央最擔心的走資問題。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">然而按機制要求,匯率要在收市後而非交易時段確認,而且當客戶買入或沽出港股通股票時,券商系統一般會預先凍結成交金額的3%作按金,以防止當天匯率大幅波動造成的結算資金不足,晚上清算後再「多除少補」。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">因此在人民幣匯率波動的日子,難免涉及額外匯兌風險,按金規定也變相令交易成本增加。如果日後能以人民幣計價及買賣港股通股票,便可降低北水南下的匯兌風險與成本,勢必刺激港股通交投量。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">另一個好處當然是可以進一步鞏固香港的離岸人民幣中心地位,因為香港的人民幣資金池可以進一步增加,而且不排除部分國際投資者會捨棄港元、寧願增加人民幣資產,也為推動人民幣報價股票證券提供窗口。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">香港擁有中國內地以外最龐大的人民幣資金池,人民幣存款規模在今年初一度超過1萬億人民幣,較2017年初的5000億人民幣倍增。未來更多人民幣資金湧入也有望強化並鞏固香港作為離岸人民幣理財中心的地位。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當然還有一個潛在好處,就像中國最大投行——中金公司的一份報告所說,一旦地緣政治風險發生變化,港股通的人民幣定價可以在一定程度上對沖可能的外部衝擊。例如,「針對香港金融體系的外部政策不確定性可能會對港幣和以港幣定價的股價產生衝擊,而人民幣定價有望在一定程度上起到對沖效果。」</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">弦外之音明顯就是,如果香港被外國制裁或真的被移出SWIFT,放心,人民幣定價可以起到穩定香港金融市場作用!</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">但過度開放人民幣買賣,會否是有計劃逐步削弱港元地位?香港的人民幣資金池又能否支撐日漸龐大的交易量?一個更深層次考慮,是更多港股使用人民幣計價後,股票市值的定價權,會否由港元投資者轉換至人民幣投資者手上?</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">稍有讀過經濟學都知,任何產品定價都是由供求決定,但如果同一產品(上市公司股票)有兩個貨幣需求(港元/人民幣),應如何定價?理論上當市場資訊流通,匯率又自由浮動,供求終會趨向平衡(Equilibrium),即是股票定價只反映基本估值因素及市場需求,匯率理論上會自行調節,撇除匯率差價後,不論港元或人民幣,應該是同價。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當然這個經濟學假設只存在於書本上,實際上看目前AH股差價,參考恒生滬深港通AH股溢價指數,過去一年反映A股比H股的溢價維持在三成以上,高峰時溢價甚至超過五成。換句話說,也就是同一股份,H股相比A股存在大幅折讓, A股有套利空間。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">金管局總裁余偉文,都留意到相關差價問題,他在今年初已表明,當局研究重點是確保人民幣、港元櫃台價格和交易不會「碎片化」,「做法之一是設造市商,但需要解決兩邊買賣套戥成本問題,如印花稅、外滙不夠流動都會帶來阻力。」</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">問題是即使有市場莊家,是否必定能解決差價問題?套戥如果失效,香港股票的定價權,會否由港元的投資者,轉為落入人民幣的投資者手上?</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">第一次聽到「爭奪定價權」這個說法,是在2015年。當時,內地公募基金獲得南下買港股的許可,隨後香港市場出現一波資金南下的高峰。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">當時在個別微信群裡,不少人就提出了「南下炒港股,爭奪定價權」、「跨過香江去、奪取定價權」的口號。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">結果在2015年內地爆發股災後,這些爭奪定價權討論就完全消失。不過在今時今日的「新香港」,重奪經濟話語權有機會再次出現。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">以2014年底港股通開通以來,南向資金持續流入,累計流入規模已經近2萬億人民幣,南向持股分別佔港股通「標的」和港股主板總市值的8.8%和5.2%左右,南向成交更佔港股市場總成交額的25%。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">按原定的計劃,人民幣計價產品,原本只覆蓋恒生指數成份股大約五、六十隻股份,但根據最新的計劃,似乎人民幣計價產品是有傾向覆蓋全數五百隻港股通的流通股份,屆時人民幣資金佔比勢必大幅上升。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">要知道,內地股民的投資文化,與香港及國際水平均相當不同,除了充斥短線炒買,更多是充滿內幕交易,以港股目前有一半以上的上市公司均是中資機構,實在令人擔心定價權如果落在內地投資者手上,會否出現更多違規的內幕交易。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">作為人民幣計價股票倡議人,任志剛一再重申,不擔心港元地位會受到影響,反指措施有助減少港元資金流出流入的規模,穩定港元匯價。(這點作為財經記者,實在難以認同:香港不是一直以作為資金自由港而自豪嗎?為何會變成減少進出是好事?)</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">回顧任志剛在2015年出版的《居安思危》,他在序言指中國將成全球最大經濟體,在參與各地大部分國際金融活動,要以港元進行是天方夜譚,港元重要性長遠而言將減退,有必要容許人民幣在香港可以便利地擔當貨幣功能。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">不過這幾年隨著任志剛加入行政會議,已經改口稱聯繫匯率制度仍行之有效,最近更稱,在一國兩制下,港元與美元有穩定關係。如果人民幣因為內地有政策或經濟需要走某一條路,港元仍然作為與美元同水平的貨幣,為國家效力。任說:「我覺得無太大所謂,亦都幾好。」</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">潛台辭不正是「為國家效力」?套用電影對白「國家終於有任務畀你」,港元地位不正是此時此刻要為國家效力的時候嗎?</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 0.2px; margin: 0px 0px 30px;">連結:https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/commentaries/po/com-05162022095444.html</p></div></div></div></div><footer style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; width: 1200px;"><div class="postComment" id="viewlet-below-content" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 26px; margin: 0px auto; width: 916px;"></div></footer>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-18354614302378008102022-05-20T03:13:00.002+08:002022-05-20T03:13:39.012+08:00以行善之名-- 對私營居屋的幾點疑問<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhziw4iqH8YC9vzpXVlMiR9Ir3QD-lyztmOY44Cv67rsvPtWZBJjgqWpe5wnVw9SRTKfGkuq3IGxg9lK13fOYzRvspFaQPQ43tPra9jiwWL8hVjTTfFSEWMvPvSzfraDB3rRiYoGbi4vaB7Pr6PJD_xko55e_IMHvGFAGA9Y6JyfoDiSGnS33oDJEWxaA/s1164/759A474F-E515-4489-9866-431508D866B9.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1164" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhziw4iqH8YC9vzpXVlMiR9Ir3QD-lyztmOY44Cv67rsvPtWZBJjgqWpe5wnVw9SRTKfGkuq3IGxg9lK13fOYzRvspFaQPQ43tPra9jiwWL8hVjTTfFSEWMvPvSzfraDB3rRiYoGbi4vaB7Pr6PJD_xko55e_IMHvGFAGA9Y6JyfoDiSGnS33oDJEWxaA/s320/759A474F-E515-4489-9866-431508D866B9.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>去年底寫了<a href="https://www.facebook.com/FINANALYSIS2021/posts/157035336646547">一篇</a>新世界建好生活興建私營居屋文章,現在事隔近半年,在新特首即將上場之際,有關方面亦公布了項目的選址:元朗欖喜路南面,地盤毗鄰新世界同系2015年初落成的溱柏。<p></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">翻查城規會資料,溱柏南面該<br />塊闊80米的狹長土地,一直劃作「休憩用地」地帶,除用以提供康樂運動設施外,亦可作為元朗公路與其北面地區之間的緩衝區。今次欖喜路私人資助房屋所在的位置,就正正在這塊狹長休憩用地的東面。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">雖然新世界澄清,地皮東面部分將繼續用作儲存藝術品及公眾休憩空間用途,沒有計劃興建私人樓宇,集團亦無持有項目的相連土地,但項目毗鄰即為新世界大型私人屋苑「溱柏」,再遠一點則有「翹翠峰」等其他私人屋苑,而由地圖可見,該幅窄長地皮由東至西連接公庵路直至欖裕路,現時均有不少鋼鐵廠、貨倉地皮以及私人停車場,新世界是否可以澄清,除「相連」地皮外,本身及關連人士是否會持有該幅地皮的其他部分?</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">順帶一提,該幅地皮由於地勢較低,目前除一頭一尾有狹少私人車路進入外,在整段欖喜路都不設進入道路,相信一旦落實興建資助出售房屋,有關道路基建配套會有所改善,加上項目樓宇將會設有會所、車位,要說無意配合該鄰近項目估計難以令人信服。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">值得留意是,不論該幅地皮用途由修訂前的「休憩用地」,又或2016年修訂後的「其他指定用途 (藝術品儲存及公眾休憩用地)」,意向均不包括住宅發展。因此新世界若要申請作私人資助房屋,就必須要透過城市規劃條例第12A條申請改劃土地用途,要改劃作私人房屋會面對很大阻力。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">本土研究社更公開質疑, 涉事地段本身屬於「棕地」,規劃署在2019年的《新界棕地使用及作業現況研究》報告,曾將該處列為擁有較高發展潛力,豈料當局到物色可用作公營房屋的「棕地」時,卻以已經存在「私人界別倡議項目」的理由將它給排除在外,本土研究因此質疑項目旨在用私人資助房屋名義避開收地。(可惜這樣重要的指控,除明報外幾乎沒有主流媒體會引述。)</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">對於我之前質疑為何要政府提供補地價優惠,「新世界建好生活」諮詢委員會成員招國偉表明,新世界正與運房局就補地價問題及「漸進式」供款按揭商討,並認為與房協一樣補市值三分之一的地價較合理,若政府在地價支持不高,將反映價單上,連同申請者負擔能力亦要提高。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px;">而政府回應亦相當正面,運輸及房屋局稱,對新世界興建資助房屋的建議表示歡迎並樂見其成,會按新世界建議內容與相關部門研究是否提供補地價優惠,再呈交行政會議;這個說法其實都等同開了綠燈。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 22px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">我去年底已質疑,如果是要捐地及做社企,為什麼新世界直接不捐出一幅已經補地價嘅地皮,作為私人居屋之用?又要開口問政府免補三分二地價?又點解唔直接參與政府的公私合作「土地共享」模式?</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 22px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px;">當然,今天香港民間對這些質疑都成了禁忌,翻查第六任行政長官當選人李家超的政綱,指發展北部空間規劃、 融入灣區、促進公私營合作開發房屋均是其中重點內容,解決本港房屋難題更是他上任後重中之重,能幫助他解決「上樓難」,其他問題都已不再是問題。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 22px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px;">這種公私營「合作」,估計在下屆政府領導下只會愈來愈多,而香港已經幾乎沒有獨立媒體有能力作出監察。我仍然維持半年前結論:「新世界現在先行站出來,捐地起樓,同時又已經封了蝕本門,已立於不敗之地。」</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 22px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">無咩事我都係返出去先,唔好阻人行善。</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#新世界建好生活</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#私樓居屋</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #060606; font-family: "PingFang HK"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#財經拆局</p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-91387066200989175112022-03-15T05:55:00.000+08:002022-03-15T05:55:04.642+08:00該走的那時... 創新高的移民人數<p><span style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px;">第五波疫情下,移民人數再次成為熱門話題。</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">與去年七、八月暑假期間機場長長人龍比較,疫情關係新一波移民潮沒有上幾波的傷感離別畫面,但實際人數早已過之無不及。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">入境處每日有提供出入境數據,但未有累積統計,幸好有獨立評論員<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">David Webb </span>作出整理資料,我們可以更容易了解過去一年移民人數變化。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">未計算以LOTR身份入境英國,<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">BNO 5</span><span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">+</span><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1 VISA</span>是去年一月三十一日正式接受申請,我們試以此劃線,而由於移民是由空路離開,因此我們排除所有陸路口岸,只統計由機場出入境人士數目。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"><br /></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="t1" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td class="td1" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">機場出入境人數</p></td><td class="td2" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td3" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td4" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td></tr><tr><td class="td5" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td6" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p5" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">入境</p></td><td class="td7" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p5" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">出境</p></td><td class="td8" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p5" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">淨出境</p></td></tr><tr><td class="td9" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 15px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">1/2/2021-28/2/2022 ( 13<span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">個月)</span></p></td><td class="td10" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 15px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">258,886</p></td><td class="td11" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 15px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">-473,403</p></td><td class="td12" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 15px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">-214,517</p></td></tr><tr><td class="td13" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 16px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">1/1/2022-28/2/2022 <span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">(</span>2<span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">個月)</span></p></td><td class="td14" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 16px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">26,194</p></td><td class="td15" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 16px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">-92,120</p></td><td class="td16" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 16px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">-65,926</p></td></tr><tr><td class="td1" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td2" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td3" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td4" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 23px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td></tr><tr><td class="td17" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 29px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p6" style="color: #0b4cb4; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s4" style="color: black; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">資料來源:入境處</span><span class="s5" style="color: black;">/ <a href="https://webb-site.com/"><span class="s6" style="color: #0b4cb4;">https://webb-site.com/</span></a></span></p></td><td class="td18" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 29px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td19" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 29px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td20" style="background-color: #efefef; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 29px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td></tr><tr><td class="td21" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 194px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td22" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 45px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td23" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 65px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td><td class="td24" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; height: 24px; padding: 4px; width: 96px;" valign="bottom"><p class="p4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">扣除期間所有的入境數目(主要是留學生和商務人士),過去十三個月,由機場淨流出人口,一共有二十一萬四<span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">千五百</span>人,佔香港總人口<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">740</span>萬人的<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2.89%</span>。移出人口<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2.89%</span><span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">是一個甚麼數字?</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">更容易理解是,本港每一百個人中,過去一年多就有近<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>個人離開香港。</p><p class="p7" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">值得留意,我們翻查並略作統計,今年頭兩個月機場已有近<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">6.6</span>萬人淨流出,數目是過去一年中,比任何時間都要多,更佔總離境人口<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">21.4</span>萬人的三成。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">可以比較的是,去年七至九月這三個月,是香港家長攜同子女赴英開學的離境旺季,也只有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">6.8</span>萬人離境,可見過去兩個月移民的人,的確比任何時間都要多。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p9" style="font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">這個數目與英國內政部發表BNO 5+1 Visa申請人數亦相當吻合,截至去年第四季,累計申請10.4萬人申請者移英,加上今年首兩個月數據,以及加拿大及澳洲等地隨後公布的<span class="s7" style="text-decoration-line: line-through;">方</span>便利移民措施,20萬人口移走是合理估計。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">到底是甚麼構成今年新一輪的移民潮?要知道移民涉及的種種部署,絕非一、兩個星期就可以處理:簡單如賣樓一般最快也要兩個月時間,其他程序如職、離港清稅、找搬屋公司將家檔運往海外,每每要提前至少兩、三個月進行部署。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">因此真正推動今躺移民潮的關鍵日子,其實是去年底至今發生了一些事情,真正觸發了部分人加快離開。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">我認為有三個因素。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">直接打擊信心是新聞及資訊自由受壓:去年底《立場新聞》現任及前總編輯被國安公處以煽動罪<span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">拘</span>捕,及後宣布關閉,之後《眾新聞》因「白色恐怖」而宣布解散,令本港獨立新聞媒體被殆盡滅絕,公民社會完全瓦解,令香港人對香港徹底絕望,也是被迫離港的最後一根稻草。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">當然,第五波疫情來勢之猛烈,也是始料不及,加上當局「冬天放暑假」的荒謬部署,有家長慘笑說要移民是為了爭取仔女有學返,部分甚至先離港再越洋處理賣樓,也是大有人在。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">諷刺的是,當香港今天仍然對多個歐美國家「封關」,不容許航機直接抵港,相反,以英國為例,有針對疫情的限制措施都已<span class="s7" style="text-decoration-line: line-through;">經</span>取消。此刻不禁要問,到底是哪個地方更危險?</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">至於微觀因素亦有一定影響,要知道今年的農曆新年是在二月一日,<span class="s7" style="text-decoration-line: line-through;">認識一些</span>朋友亦希望與家人過年後才離港(可惜是第五波疫情剛爆發,不少家庭聚會都被迫取消),因此數據上亦反映,二月初以後淨離港人士是穩步增加至每日過千,之後更增至每日二千人淨流出。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"><br /></span></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">同時,英國的春季學期<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> (Spring Term)</span>是由<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1</span>月初開始直至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>月底,部分家長亦可能是配合插班需要而部署離港行程。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">到底龐大人口離港,對香港經濟有幾大影響?這些移民家庭很多是中產人士,很多都持有物業。按香港目前的樓市市道,普通三、四百呎的中小型單位,都要五、六百萬起跳,稍為近市區的物業,價值動輒在一千萬元以上,扣除按揭成數,即使不能取回<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">MPF</span><span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">,都可以帶三至五百萬港元到海外,這其實已</span><span class="s8" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; text-decoration-line: line-through;">經</span><span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">是相當保守估計;</span></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">以<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">21</span>萬人基本假設為三人家庭,即是<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">7.15</span>萬個家庭:</p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">每家庭資產總額<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">300</span>萬元=<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2,145</span>億元</p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">若果每家庭資產總額<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">500</span>萬=<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3,575</span>億元</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">我作出近三千五百億的金額估算,與早前投資銀行「大和」發表報告,估計<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2021</span>年全年已錄得<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">480</span>億美元的資金淨流出,即是大約<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3700</span>億港元,基本吻合。而「大和」更預算,未來<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">24</span>個月資金外流規模可能超過<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1,000</span>億美元 (即7,800億港元),其中大部分在<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2022</span>年度發生。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p10" style="color: #343434; font-family: "Songti TC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span class="s4" style="color: black; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">三千五百億元有幾多?財政預算案</span>今年派發<span class="s9" style="font-family: Times; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1</span>萬元消費券,預計措施涉及僅約<span class="s9" style="font-family: Times; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">664</span>億元財政開支。</p><p class="p11" style="color: #343434; font-family: Times; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">換言之,流出的資金足夠派消費券近五年,或每人可以一次過取得近五萬元消費券。</p><p class="p7" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">而三千多億亦正是目前本港銀行體系總結餘的總數(約維持在超過<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3000</span>億水平),加上俄羅斯與烏克蘭戰事持續,避險情緒高漲,資金湧入被視為避風港的美元,導致港滙近日持續貶值,單日一度貶值<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">68</span>點子至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">7.815</span><span class="s3" style="font-family: "PingFang TC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">,為</span><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2019</span>年<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">12</span>月以來最弱。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">如果移民人口持續,帶走更多資金存款,加上港股積弱,新股上市再難吸引資金流入,不難想像港元會持續處於聯繫匯率弱方水平,一旦有重大金融事件發生,香港金融系統將會受到衝擊。</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px; min-height: 13px;"><br /></p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">移民人數急增,引起問題其實相當廣泛,包括影響本港勞動人口結構以及企業投資信心,由於篇幅所限,下星期再續談影響。</p><p class="p8" style="color: #070707; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">(原文刊於3月7日自由亞洲電台)</p><p class="p8" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span style="color: #070707; font-family: PingFang SC;"><span style="font-size: 11px;">https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/commentaries/po/com-03072022135324.html</span></span></p><p class="p12" style="color: #0b4cb4; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span class="s10" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%25E7%25A7%25BB%25E6%25B0%2591?__eep__=6&__cft__%255B0%255D=AZVEf9yiq4ElzDUagf03p9hvk5-GFEo6IzdyzMlLoyZhW3oMG6WOW6JPhVZuDLqo9SIwIV2kRhYFWa_9GWqZCMZ1YmTKVU_hNKP0H0BV6x6VG2rHn---y4aMgypOGH5yX-hAU5CCs8aM-DaSRZUE9vXMTI1vLxY2iTSL-VZGKL_2iQ&__tn__=*NK-R">#<span class="s11" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">移民</span></a></span></p><p class="p12" style="color: #0b4cb4; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span class="s10" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%25E9%259B%25A2%25E6%25B8%25AF%25E4%25BA%25BA%25E6%2595%25B8?__eep__=6&__cft__%255B0%255D=AZVEf9yiq4ElzDUagf03p9hvk5-GFEo6IzdyzMlLoyZhW3oMG6WOW6JPhVZuDLqo9SIwIV2kRhYFWa_9GWqZCMZ1YmTKVU_hNKP0H0BV6x6VG2rHn---y4aMgypOGH5yX-hAU5CCs8aM-DaSRZUE9vXMTI1vLxY2iTSL-VZGKL_2iQ&__tn__=*NK-R">#<span class="s11" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">離港人數</span></a></span></p><p class="p13" style="color: #0b4cb4; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span class="s12" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/bno%25E7%25B0%25BD%25E8%25AD%2589?__eep__=6&__cft__%255B0%255D=AZVEf9yiq4ElzDUagf03p9hvk5-GFEo6IzdyzMlLoyZhW3oMG6WOW6JPhVZuDLqo9SIwIV2kRhYFWa_9GWqZCMZ1YmTKVU_hNKP0H0BV6x6VG2rHn---y4aMgypOGH5yX-hAU5CCs8aM-DaSRZUE9vXMTI1vLxY2iTSL-VZGKL_2iQ&__tn__=*NK-R">#BNO<span class="s11" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">簽證</span></a></span></p><p class="p12" style="color: #0b4cb4; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span class="s10" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%25E9%259B%25A2%25E6%25B8%25AF%25E8%25B3%2587%25E9%2587%2591?__eep__=6&__cft__%255B0%255D=AZVEf9yiq4ElzDUagf03p9hvk5-GFEo6IzdyzMlLoyZhW3oMG6WOW6JPhVZuDLqo9SIwIV2kRhYFWa_9GWqZCMZ1YmTKVU_hNKP0H0BV6x6VG2rHn---y4aMgypOGH5yX-hAU5CCs8aM-DaSRZUE9vXMTI1vLxY2iTSL-VZGKL_2iQ&__tn__=*NK-R">#<span class="s11" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">離港資金</span></a></span></p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-7001002489461547942022-02-27T07:33:00.001+08:002022-02-27T07:33:20.375+08:00踢出全球圈<p><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 17px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqtrrTVg3yWG4j4V8kUK-yjgISmYCSVHcaSx01J6IqLtvQflxU0pS18pSSBXCfhs3lh75KbE6fREMZS5KOX-ezROH-SA8BQaPTbxGF4_813j-_Pv0-67t_FucRFq8Z0DLX3WYs2MnT9EDVx5-Iw83MqKy9qwcoAlgZFGFS7aXpPO6d7NZ2Yd1oljvyZA=s1280" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqtrrTVg3yWG4j4V8kUK-yjgISmYCSVHcaSx01J6IqLtvQflxU0pS18pSSBXCfhs3lh75KbE6fREMZS5KOX-ezROH-SA8BQaPTbxGF4_813j-_Pv0-67t_FucRFq8Z0DLX3WYs2MnT9EDVx5-Iw83MqKy9qwcoAlgZFGFS7aXpPO6d7NZ2Yd1oljvyZA=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />#STANDWITHUKRAINE<span class="s1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">成為全球人類最響亮的共同語言。</span><p></p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">這個周末,無論社交媒體、或世界各地出現的大小集會,支持烏克蘭的聲音相信地球每一個角落都會聽見。(當然,在某些大國是平衡時空,不能算入地球村。)</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">這種前所未見的人類力量,正對各國執政者產生微妙變化,特別是之前認為不可能對俄羅斯動用的「核武級制裁」,出現<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">180</span>度轉機。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">先是由英國提出,限制俄羅斯進入<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>全球銀行間支付系統的立場,之後一直對採取這種措施表示保留的意大利表示,亦支持斷開與俄羅斯的系統連接。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">陸續有希臘也加入了歐盟對<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>的立場,甚至是被視為親俄羅斯的匈牙利總理亦公開表態,表明不會阻止任何制裁行動。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">然後到德國,開始改變限制俄羅斯進入<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>的立場。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">德國外交部長和經濟部長表態,正在緊急研究對<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>進行有針對性和功能性的限制,包括如何限制與<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>脫鉤的附帶損害,從而影響到合適的人。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">德國因為與俄羅斯擁有龐大貿易量,一直不願加入制裁,之前多次稱需要權衡此舉的經濟後果。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">隨著德國表態,一向被批評反應緩慢的歐盟,亦罕見加快對俄羅斯制裁,正式公布與美國及盟友,限制俄羅斯多家主要銀行不能進入<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>,換言之是正式將俄羅斯剔出國際金融市場。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">確實,以<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">SWIFT</span>制裁是「七傷拳」,特別是對歐盟及德國尤其重要。俄羅斯是歐盟第五大貿易夥伴。它是歐洲<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 35% </span>的天然氣供應來源,擁有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 3100 </span>億歐元的歐盟資產。將俄羅斯與<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">SWIFT </span>隔離,幾乎等同歐洲不能再向俄羅斯購買天然氣,也意味外國投資者及債權人無法取回資產;它還可能引發俄羅斯的報復。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">對美國總統拜登來說,亦要衡量使用<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT</span>作為對付俄羅斯的武器,可能會損害美國的長期利益。經濟學人提出,由於美元的主導地位及全球結算系統中的卓越作用,美國控制著國際金融。一旦將<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> SWIFT </span>進一步政治化,將有利中國以人民幣進行跨境支付,勢必削弱美元主導地位。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">到<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 2021 </span>年底,以人民幣結算的交收系統<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">CIPS</span>,日均交易量已達<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3100 </span>億元人民幣(約<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">500 </span>億美元)<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">——</span>雖然遠低於<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">SWIFT </span>的<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 4000 </span>億美元,但幾乎是一年前的兩倍。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">但今次罕見的國際聯合金融制裁,將對俄羅斯產生近乎致命打擊。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">自<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 1990 </span>年代現代全球化時代開始以來,沒有一個主要經濟體與全球金融體系斷絕關係,今次逐出國際金融圈,將打擊俄羅斯貿易,並使俄羅斯公司更難開展業務。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">限制銀行業務將導致資金緊縮並阻礙資金流入和流出。雖然俄羅斯一直試圖將其經濟與這一點隔離開來:自<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 2014 </span>年入侵克里米亞以來,以美元計價的發票份額已經下降,而且已經建立了外匯儲備,當中不少是人民幣資產。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">更重要是對國內金融及經濟信心,會做成很大沖擊,這完全不是普京可以控制:對自己貨幣失去信心,俄羅斯人沖向他們的銀行取出美元。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>由於盧布貶值,許多電子產品零售商將價格提高了<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 30%</span>,人們爭相搶購,直至售完即止。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">雖然要了解俄羅斯內部的不滿聲音,幾乎是不可能任務,但靠著一些勇敢的媒體人,我們還是能看到片面資訊:<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2</span>月<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">24</span>日約有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 1700 </span>俄羅斯人因發起反戰活動被捕,其中一半在莫斯科。但反戰抗議活動也席捲全國,從西伯利亞到聖彼得堡,第二天又有更多人被拘留。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">與<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2014</span>年不流血取得克里米亞的街頭慶祝影象不同,俄羅斯受過教育階層的主導感覺是:<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> “</span>痛苦、憤怒和羞恥<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">”</span>,在咖啡館裡,年輕人震驚地沉默地坐著,震驚於他們的國家對鄰國發動了戰爭。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">反對戰爭的請願書在一天之內就收集五十萬個簽名,去年諾貝爾和平獎獲得者穆拉托夫(<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">Dmitry Muratov</span>),在擔任編輯的反對派報紙《新公報》中,寫道普京<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">“</span>正在他的手指上旋轉一個核按鈕,就像一些昂貴的汽車鑰匙鏈一樣<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">……</span>但我們永遠無法將烏克蘭視為敵人。而且永遠不會。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">”</span></p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">今期經濟學人的封面標題是:「他會在哪裡停下來?歷史將嚴厲評判普京的戰爭」。文中提出有不少人會認為,直接挑戰普京太冒險<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">——</span>因為他與現實脫節,或者因為他會升級、誤判或擁抱中國。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">不過經濟學人指,這本身就是一個誤判。<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>特別是國內有很大反對聲音,許多俄羅斯人不清楚一場不知從何而來的危機,他們可能對烏克蘭的兄弟姐妹發動一場致命的戰爭並不熱心。經濟學人認為,這正是西方可以利用來打擊普京的東西。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">我不懂政治及軍事,但覺得如今烏克蘭最後機會,正是繫於全球<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#STANDWITHUKRAINE</span>。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">人道災難面前,當全球公民繫於一心,識得計數的政客,會明白自己的選民到底有甚麼要求:反抗獨裁者就是普世價值。</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">圖片是烏克蘭中央銀行(<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">The National Bank of Ukraine</span>),為支持烏克蘭軍隊的籌款帳戶,央行行長更特別為籌款舉行記者會,有興趣朋友可以自行到連結了解:</p><p class="p2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi">https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi</a></span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">#STANDWITHUKRAINE</p><p class="p2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">#SWIFT</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>核武級制裁</p><p class="p1" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>財經拆局</p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-73551840873592539902022-02-27T07:32:00.002+08:002022-02-27T07:32:06.294+08:00 核武級制裁?<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">習慣了和平盛世的「港豬」,從沒有想過戰爭會離自己咁近。過去一年有逾十萬港人移居英國,如今卻要切身處地面對了二次大戰以來,歐洲「最黑暗的時刻」。</span></p><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">在俄羅斯通過飛彈和空中襲擊了烏克蘭首都基輔和其他十幾個城市後,投資者爭相避險,打擊全球股市並推高了石油、黃金和政府債券的價格。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">我的興趣集中在今次俄羅斯入侵,以及引發的制裁行動,對金融市場的影響,以及在亂世中,投資者應如何自處?</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">星期四金融市場最精彩,肯定是俄羅斯股市:周四交易的前兩個小時,指數驚人下跌了54%,但如果你藝高人膽大,敢低位撈貨,在接下來的半小時將獲得同樣驚人的 42% 的漲幅,但到收市仍然跌了33%。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">同樣受打擊是俄羅斯盧布,兌美元滙價應聲急插最多10%,低見89.9996美元,創歷史新低,隨後跌幅略為收窄,當地央行宣布多年來首次向滙市進行干預。相反道指在跌過850點後,幾乎完全收復失地,標普500在跌過2.6%後,收市倒升1%。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">對不少投資者來說,今次烏克蘭危機,會被視為2014年當俄羅斯佔領克里米亞翻版,評估影響是暫時性。事實上證明當時的分析是正確的,以盧布計算的俄羅斯股票之後飆升了近八年。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">但這一次,烏克蘭的砲聲對投資者來說或許並不相同,克里米亞在1954 年之前一直是俄羅斯領土,但今次對烏克蘭的入侵並不相同,因為烏克蘭一直被視為俄羅斯與北約之間緩衝地帶,如果一旦失守,正如烏克蘭總統說「普京將會變成現代版的希特拉」,甚至恐怕引發第三次世界大戰。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">二次大戰的背景眾所周知,正是歐洲盟國對希特拉的堀起採取姑息政策,結果德國勢如破竹橫掃歐洲大陸,問題是歷史會否重演?</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">看來,目前歐美對俄羅斯採取的行動,都是集中經濟制裁,包括重點打擊俄羅斯金融機構以及富豪(當然包括普京本人,一直有傳他有過千億美元身家),其中英國政府週四製定了一項範圍廣泛的製裁方案,包括切斷當地銀行與英國金融體系的聯繫。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">英國首相約翰遜更首次提出,將推動切斷俄羅斯與環球銀行間金融通訊協會 SWIFT 支付網絡的聯繫,換言之是把俄羅斯踢出全球金融系統。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">總部設於比利時的SWIFT,簡易理解是一家金融合作社,重要功能是作為全球銀行之間金融交易的中介和執行者。 SWIFT 本身不會進行資金轉賬:而是發送支付「指令」,這些指令必須由金融機構之間的往來賬戶結算。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">放大到國際層面,SWIFT的金融網絡容許各國金融機構交換指令,從而完成交易。美國和歐盟可以禁止俄羅斯使用SWIFT網絡,這將令俄羅斯無法進行大量國際金融交易,包括收取出口石油和天然氣所得的利潤,它們佔俄羅斯國家收入的逾40%。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">大家有進行資金跨國轉移都知(無錯,簡單如由香港射錢去英國),銀行次間都會問“SWIFT 代碼”以及BIC等資料,如果填錯相關資料,對不起,你的轉錢將會失效。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">大家有印象會記得,去年本港官員因為執行國安法,外界一度關注香港會否被排除在SWIFT 系統上╴當時前金管局總裁任志剛接受我們訪問時,已表態稱停用SWIFT 是「核武級」的金融制裁工具,相信外國不會執行,因為這是一個「七傷拳」,既傷害對方、但也意味外國投資者及債權人無法取回資產,對自己亦是弊多於利。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">事實上,西方在2014年也曾威脅禁止俄羅斯使用SWIFT。俄羅斯當時估計,此舉或可在1年內導致俄羅斯的國內生產總值(GDP)減少5%。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">不過暫時除了約翰遜表態外,其他歐美國家仍未目具體措施,拜登回應更是被外界指責軟弱無力(這或許解釋了為何美股會出現大奇蹟日),恐怕要停用SWIFT不會是一時三刻出現的事。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">更重要的問題是,在廿二世紀的今天,SWIFT這種核武級制裁是否仍然有效?彭博已經措出,加密貨幣的流通,已經為俄羅斯的富豪及大企業,在國際金融制裁下提供一個缺口:因為加密貨幣的安全性,令國際無法追踪資金來源,這個或許解釋了為何俄羅斯可以有咁多黑客高手,以及加密貨幣早已相當流行。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">當然,烏克蘭局勢變化對香港及兩岸有更深一層意義。華爾街日報稱,地緣政治緊張局勢有蔓延趨勢。在烏克蘭之後,下一個關注的地區是台灣,中國堅稱台灣是一個分離地區。但即使中國緩和了台海兩岸的言論,投資者也考慮到地緣政治風險,預期投資相關的風險資產,會有更大的風險折扣(Risk Discount)。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">至於回答最初問題:亂世中投資者如何部署?資深對沖基金經理錢志健提供了最好答案-- 不投資就是當今最好的投資策略。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">除非你賭性極強,否則面對複雜多變的地緣政治,甚至是狂人政治,任何評估只會是斷估,是否「無痛苦」就要留待日後證明。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%BF%84%E7%83%8F%E6%88%B0%E7%88%AD?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVk5vntG3HZUOONSh6unWDheq5afWO0L8umDQ00xLh9Btm_x0s3yWQlUcGDYa6Eq5BvDASJ2eVYDjkiDFFrFGMDt3E_SrpS7e6fRPxVLOrbc70ZZb3Q5r-Fy18CBCzmAWESIMXmJSEw0cwuCd64gne92bizz4hygCBSeJuPQU0vjA&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#俄烏戰爭</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/swift?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVk5vntG3HZUOONSh6unWDheq5afWO0L8umDQ00xLh9Btm_x0s3yWQlUcGDYa6Eq5BvDASJ2eVYDjkiDFFrFGMDt3E_SrpS7e6fRPxVLOrbc70ZZb3Q5r-Fy18CBCzmAWESIMXmJSEw0cwuCd64gne92bizz4hygCBSeJuPQU0vjA&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#SWIFT</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E6%A0%B8%E6%AD%A6%E7%B4%9A%E5%88%B6%E8%A3%81?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVk5vntG3HZUOONSh6unWDheq5afWO0L8umDQ00xLh9Btm_x0s3yWQlUcGDYa6Eq5BvDASJ2eVYDjkiDFFrFGMDt3E_SrpS7e6fRPxVLOrbc70ZZb3Q5r-Fy18CBCzmAWESIMXmJSEw0cwuCd64gne92bizz4hygCBSeJuPQU0vjA&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#核武級制裁</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZVk5vntG3HZUOONSh6unWDheq5afWO0L8umDQ00xLh9Btm_x0s3yWQlUcGDYa6Eq5BvDASJ2eVYDjkiDFFrFGMDt3E_SrpS7e6fRPxVLOrbc70ZZb3Q5r-Fy18CBCzmAWESIMXmJSEw0cwuCd64gne92bizz4hygCBSeJuPQU0vjA&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-62154574425440386522022-02-24T18:18:00.003+08:002022-02-24T18:18:50.324+08:00 托市 vs 鬥地主<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgVVNWUjQh55QeyY1O7rZAYfnzFhXDy2gUUFJuRRpeWk3x4gO-SeLDvg12jJp2AVQ42IfSj8dPmiBxzYapwgi4kJukGuup4skAi-xea3FgFoV6D-hCqLK2CpMQ6SCHDiEf8lkscBM-5f940NkvJfotU0oJRTwHfFIm-LN-43Lj_C_CD0PqV7EjKFIh3Mw=s600" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgVVNWUjQh55QeyY1O7rZAYfnzFhXDy2gUUFJuRRpeWk3x4gO-SeLDvg12jJp2AVQ42IfSj8dPmiBxzYapwgi4kJukGuup4skAi-xea3FgFoV6D-hCqLK2CpMQ6SCHDiEf8lkscBM-5f940NkvJfotU0oJRTwHfFIm-LN-43Lj_C_CD0PqV7EjKFIh3Mw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />由本來預計過千億財赤,最終變成有<span class="s2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">189</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px;">億盈餘,兩者相差</span><span class="s2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1205</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px;">億元,陳茂波今次靠的,就是</span><span class="s2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1411</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px;">億的賣地收入,較原來預算多出</span><span class="s2" style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">435</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px;">億,足以扭轉乾坤,更甚是預期未來幾年,本來有的經常性赤字,現在一下子,已經可以變成「年年有(盈)餘」。</span><p></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">拆細千四億的賣地收入,其中單靠賣地表,有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">912</span>億,至於發展商補地價就有近<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">430</span>億,兩個數字已較原來預算多出<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">376</span>億及<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">118</span>億。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">不過留意,當中有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">508</span>億,是來自中環海濱新地王,這樣的貴重地皮,是可一不可再,因此陳茂波在預計下年度的土地收入時,只有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1200</span>億,比今年度少近<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">15%</span>,但比去年原來預算,仍是高出近<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">23%</span>,不可謂不進取。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">當然,政府低估的仲有利得稅收入,較預期多出<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">324</span>億元,這明顯是得力於去年經濟復蘇,<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">GDP</span>增長<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">6.4%</span>,但展望今年,本地經濟開局已經備受疫情打擊,因此政府預算全年實質增長介乎百分之二至三點五,以及中期經濟增長<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">(2023-26</span>年)有<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3%</span>增長,比疫情大流行前的<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2.8%</span>仲要高,如果不是信心過高,就是刻意造「假數」意圖粉飾太平。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">陳茂波既然深知樓市高低、對政府財政健康事關重大,當然勢要保著樓市「健康發展」,因此出乎所有人預期之外,居然指示按證保險公司放寬按揭保險門檻。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">這個在<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2019</span>年首度放寬、被業界稱為「林鄭<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">PLAN</span>」的修訂按揭保險計劃,現在大可改名為「阿波<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">PLAN</span>」,首置可申請最高八成按揭貸款的樓價上限令,將由<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1000</span>萬元提升至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1200</span>萬元,而最高九成按揭貸款的樓價上限則會由現時<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">800</span>萬元提升至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1000</span>萬元。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">與<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2019</span>年做法不同,今次連帶也擴大按保計劃適用範圍,為價格<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1200</span>萬元以上至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1920</span>萬元合資格物業提供按揭保險,惟按揭貸款以<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">960</span>萬元為上限。</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">當<span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1200</span>萬樓盤都可以變成首置的「上車盤」;買到近二千萬豪宅都要做按揭保險,其實我都唔知點解釋香港樓市這個光怪陸離的怪現象。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">吊詭的是,陳茂波處處托市,但卻推出了一項史無前例,侵蝕私有產權的做法,變相令樓市前景添上極大不明朗。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">這個簡稱「租戶保護令」的物體,其實正是特首之前多次呼籲地產商要與租戶共渡時艱,但又無大業主願意聽的一枝笛。現在陳茂波以「防疫之名」,以立法手段,禁止業主對指定行業未能如期繳交租金的租戶,終止租約、服務或採取其他相關法律行動,措施為期<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>個月,並可按需要再延長最多<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>個月。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">消息指,所謂指定行業包括食肆、超市、街市、商場等<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">23</span>個《法例<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">599F</span>章》表列處所、<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">17</span>類第六輪「防疫抗疫基金」指定處所,另加零售業及興趣班等,相信可惠及<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">13</span>萬以上商業租戶。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">陳茂波表明,有關安排讓處於水深火熱的企業有喘息空間,有關措施亦僅為「有拖冇欠」,業主不可因欠租干擾租戶運作、也不得採取法律行動如申請破產令或清盤等,而租戶之後要繳交所欠租金,業主可與租客商討如何攤分支付欠款。</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s4" style="text-decoration-line: underline;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/lammiuyan/photos/pcb.318666500279954/318659723613965/">林妙茵</a></span>在她的專頁已經提出相關措施前後矛盾,我只想補充這個措施恐成日後非常壞的先例。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">的確,英國在<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2020</span>年首度封城期間,亦有類似安排,這個名為「<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eviction-protection-extended-for-businesses-most-in-need"><span class="s5" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">Ring-fencing</span></a>」措施,當時政府是立法以防止商業業主物業驅逐不支付租金的租戶,措施並會持續到<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 2022</span>年<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>月。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">不過英國的措施是有整體配套,是支援經濟的一個部分,政府承諾會投入<span class="s3" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> 3500</span>億英鎊,包括代支人工,派錢支援行業,以維持企業及個人就業。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">而且英國的做法,前設是先由租戶和業主之間達成減租協議,即使在最壞情況下無法達成,當局仍會先透過具法律約束力的仲裁程序,解決雙方分歧。同時為了確保業主受到應有保護,政府明確規定有能力支付租金的大企業,是必須支付租金。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">現在香港一刀切、快刀斬亂麻,計劃本周五刊憲,下月提交立法會通過,這種「鬥地主」的手法,已經觸及地產界神經,據聞反應極大,據悉地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅已去信陳茂波,要求政府澄清建議,包括是否涵蓋商場或寫字樓,及政府會否補貼業主。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC Semibold"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s6" style="font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"><b>共富之名「鬥地主」</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">回想政府過去兩年動用了所有法例去打擊反對派,既有新訂立的「宇宙大法」,甚至想到動用殖民地年代的煽動法例,再配合國安公署打擊傳媒,變成處處紅線。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">現在,以抗疫之名「鬥地主」,將私有產權視為無物,被削弱的業主變相要「共同富裕」,政府既無包底賠償、日後租客因為經營困難而倒閉或「走佬」,業主好大機會難以追討,最終變成血本無歸。</p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">更令人憂慮是此例一開,政府以「必有之惡」之名(或者特首說的打仗理由),香港賴以成功的私有產權保障便盪然無存,一旦日後中央提出要在本港推行「房住不炒」,損害的,就是全港二百八十多萬個小業主的權益。</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>財政預算</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>托市</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>鬥地主</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>必有之惡</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>財經拆局</p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-47001220635921573192022-02-17T05:01:00.004+08:002022-02-17T05:01:54.771+08:00不自由的選擇<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2A5iVq-5SWTir-3SlOVkfMwPavRirb0aBdNu5p-qRTIO27SzS1_ovwisTZ70BgpvPquuZaf8ziFmV_KlAGQFOs2zeC3Mw6OeT5MOyoicnTa-tGFpS3oXX_jCEeuQ7sjl8_Rk_EbLGcnIMnlBleaIRV6qEcZ7dX-Q8TnweM87FcEGik-ZI2PGO5g1qIQ=s1169" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="1169" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2A5iVq-5SWTir-3SlOVkfMwPavRirb0aBdNu5p-qRTIO27SzS1_ovwisTZ70BgpvPquuZaf8ziFmV_KlAGQFOs2zeC3Mw6OeT5MOyoicnTa-tGFpS3oXX_jCEeuQ7sjl8_Rk_EbLGcnIMnlBleaIRV6qEcZ7dX-Q8TnweM87FcEGik-ZI2PGO5g1qIQ=s320" width="320" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">一年前重新執筆寫「財經拆局」,第一篇文章就是美國傳統基金會(The Heritage Foundation)發表的2021年《經濟自由度指數》,史無前例將香港除名。</span><p></p><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">本港曾經連續25年在指數中排名第一,於2020年排名降至第二。基金會直去年直接把香港從指數中剔除,今年再次沒有給予評分,指本港對其經濟政策沒有完全的主權控制。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">「今天的香港,正經歷前所未有的巨大轉變,這點大家都同意吧?資金自由進出,對產權的法律保障,以及不干預政策,都是經濟自由的基石,這些轉變不會一下子完全消失,但慢慢的蠶食,總有一日你我會發現,這個香港已經不再熟悉。」</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">一年前寫下的看法,今天回看原來已經不是慢慢蠶食,而是急劇惡化,特別是資訊自由流通保障,今天在打擊傳媒及變相封網下,已經嚴重威脅香港這個曾經是經濟自由的最後堡壘。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">特別是政府打著抗疫之名,進一步扼殺個人自由,甚至是經濟自由中最重要的營商自由,已經因為變相封關及暫停營業,令商業環境急劇惡化,多家主要外資都表明會陸續撤出香港的營運,部分甚至情願撓過香港,直接去到內地投資。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">甚至連一向親政府的大銀行,亦表達不滿,星展香港行政總裁表態,香港內外無法通關,已損金融中心觀感。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">雖然香港已經被除名,但今次公布的經濟自由度指數╴仍然有很值得參考的觀察,可惜相關報道在本港主流媒體中,再次缺席。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">沒有香港之後,在排名榜中,新加坡連續第三年排榜首,值得留意是台灣排名、雖然維持在第六位,和去年持平,但得分就從78.6分上升至80.1分,創下歷年新高,令當地首度獲得「自由(Free)」的評級。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">基金會盛讚,台灣由於司法效率和勞工自由度的提高,自 2017 年以來台灣的經濟自由度總體提高了 3.6 分,並首次超過了門檻,進入“自由”指數類別的前列 . 而商業自由和財務自由的進一步改善,將推動經濟自由更高。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">相反,由圖表看到,在台灣得分創新高的同時,排名第158位的中國,不單創下歷年新低,更首次由大部分不自由(Mostly Unfree)區域,跌入到壓迫(Repressed)水平,作為全球第二大經濟體,只高於第三世界的利比亞。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">而且得分大跌逾十分,由58.4跌至48,不單是中國歷來最大跌幅,也是報告廿多年來,得分跌得最多的一次。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">中國排名大跌,報告特別在中國的章節中,有提及香港:「對香港自治的限制、對台灣的威脅、對中國維吾爾少數民族的迫害以及北京的網絡戰活動,導致信任普遍下降,並繼續破壞全球關係的穩定。」</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">基金會的報告又提到,中國經濟自由的基礎仍然很薄弱,經濟受到壓制。隨著經濟放緩,中國缺乏投資自由和金融自由,嚴重阻礙了生產力的增長和發展。而產權保護和執法薄弱,土地掠奪很常見。 盜竊外資知識產權的行為十分普遍。 </div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">最嚴重指控是直指向共產黨,指黨直接統治司法系統。 腐敗猖獗發生在受政府嚴格監管的領域,例如土地使用權、房地產、採礦和基礎設施開發,這些領域容易受到欺詐、賄賂的影響。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">報告甚至點名提到國家主席的習近平,稱他近年集中權力,推翻內部政敵,並加強了對公民社會的控制。</div></div><div class="cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql o9v6fnle ii04i59q" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">這樣敏感的指控當然解釋為何香港主流媒體,都不會提及今年度的報告詳細內容。</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E5%BA%A6%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUvITxkreKixChS6g68bmJUvUsXo7LtIfDiV9T6PIULkfrmd0nT5TkWkJwS5XyuxJVJWTm98NubjVHOxdHW8OnRUhOTk882NG-zut-4G0LVhl8dW2wkEAel28ZZSwM4viwODBHsHq6R0_OCsy6ZHBWKfpdGczKxjwK-PzN7HS_YIg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#經濟自由度指數</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E4%B8%8D%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E7%9A%84%E9%81%B8%E6%93%87?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUvITxkreKixChS6g68bmJUvUsXo7LtIfDiV9T6PIULkfrmd0nT5TkWkJwS5XyuxJVJWTm98NubjVHOxdHW8OnRUhOTk882NG-zut-4G0LVhl8dW2wkEAel28ZZSwM4viwODBHsHq6R0_OCsy6ZHBWKfpdGczKxjwK-PzN7HS_YIg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#不自由的選擇</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E5%82%B3%E7%B5%B1%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91%E6%9C%83?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUvITxkreKixChS6g68bmJUvUsXo7LtIfDiV9T6PIULkfrmd0nT5TkWkJwS5XyuxJVJWTm98NubjVHOxdHW8OnRUhOTk882NG-zut-4G0LVhl8dW2wkEAel28ZZSwM4viwODBHsHq6R0_OCsy6ZHBWKfpdGczKxjwK-PzN7HS_YIg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#傳統基金會</a></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="oajrlxb2 g5ia77u1 qu0x051f esr5mh6w e9989ue4 r7d6kgcz rq0escxv nhd2j8a9 nc684nl6 p7hjln8o kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x jb3vyjys rz4wbd8a qt6c0cv9 a8nywdso i1ao9s8h esuyzwwr f1sip0of lzcic4wl gpro0wi8 q66pz984 b1v8xokw" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E6%8B%86%E5%B1%80?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUvITxkreKixChS6g68bmJUvUsXo7LtIfDiV9T6PIULkfrmd0nT5TkWkJwS5XyuxJVJWTm98NubjVHOxdHW8OnRUhOTk882NG-zut-4G0LVhl8dW2wkEAel28ZZSwM4viwODBHsHq6R0_OCsy6ZHBWKfpdGczKxjwK-PzN7HS_YIg&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#財經拆局</a></span></div></div>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-90434775670471028442022-01-31T06:36:00.001+08:002022-01-31T06:36:03.684+08:00 驅趕外資,自食其果<p><span style="font-size: 15px;">虎年將至,也是離開2月4日北京冬奧只有數日時間╴媒體發現,</span><span class="s1" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px;">斥下巨資取得頂級贊助權的Visa、寶潔和可口可樂等冬奧會的贊助商保持相對低調,沒有進行慣常的以奧運為主題的廣告攻勢。</span></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p4" style="color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">贊助金額達到數以十億美元計,這些巨企不願高調發動宣傳,原因正陷入兩難境地:美國官員、及部分人權活動人士已表示,中國對待新疆穆斯林為主少數民族人士的做法相當於種族滅絕,企業應付責任斷絕這些生意往來。</span></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">當然,中國否認了這些指控,並對奧運會政治化的企圖提出抗議。中國政府還通過公開批評、監管審查和鼓勵消費者<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">/</span>網民以抵制等方式,越來越多地<a href="https://cn.wsj.com/articles/CT-BIZ-20220103144534"><span class="s3">懲罰</span></a>其認為插手這個問題的外資企業。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">由冬奧問題引伸,是外資這種兩難困局,已經到了無限放大的境地,甚至是二揀一的局面:要麼是撤出中國、否則即使願意「跪底」留在內地,亦要面對疫情失控以及被制裁的雙重風險。</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">今年<span class="s4" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>月,先有<span class="s4" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">FAST FASHION</span>零售商<span class="s4" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">H&M</span>表示,將停止從新疆地區採購,之後在網上引發強烈聲討,這家瑞典公司的店鋪和商品在中國被全網下架。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">去年十二月,火頭燒到全球最大的晶片生產商英特爾,中國官員甚至公開指責英特爾要求供應商不要從新疆地區採購商品的行為。英特爾之後道歉,回應致信供應商,要求他們遵守美國法律,此舉並不代表英特爾對新疆的立場。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">論慘烈,以上品牌都不及沃爾瑪<span class="s4" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">(Walmart</span>)。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">去年底,內地社交媒體用戶聲稱沃爾瑪旗下的沃爾瑪門店和山姆會員店<span class="s4" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">(Sam's Club)</span>已停止銷售來自新疆的產品。大量網民威脅要退出山姆會員店會員資格,並抵制這家連鎖店。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">雖然沃爾瑪未有承認有關做法,但中國政府在不到一周的時間裡第二次瞄準沃爾瑪,由市場監管總局支持的媒體報導稱這家美國零售商因涉嫌網絡安全違規而受到行政處罰。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">外</span>資即使避得開新疆爭議,但面對內地「動態清零」做法,一樣難以置身事外。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">在去年12 月,在擁有 1300 萬人口的西安,地方官員未能足夠快地阻止Delta 病毒的爆發,西安市被實施了廣泛的封鎖。在該市組裝和測試 DRAM 微芯片的美光Micron表示,這些措施將對其工廠的產量產生“一些影響”。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">之後,南韓三星還表示將不得不“調整”其閃存工廠的生產,該工廠約佔全球 nand 芯片產能的 15%。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">之後,一月在天津進行大規模測試以應對 Omicron 疫情,迫使豐田和大眾汽車要暫停在天津的汽車製造。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p9" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">但更荒謬的、就要數到日本<span class="s5" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">CANON</span>佳能事件。</p><p class="p10" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><br /></p><p class="p9" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">上周,在珠海設廠<span class="s5" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">32</span>年的世界相機巨頭日本佳能珠海發公告稱,經營面臨空前困難,總部不得不終止公司生產。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p11" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Songti SC"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">外資撤走不是新鮮事,但不少網民眼光都放到佳能慷慨的N+1賠償方案:有人計算每位員工得到的補償金至少30萬元人民幣,最高甚至傳出有個人遣散費用可高達150萬元。</p><p class="p12" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Songti SC"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 25px;"><br /></p><p class="p11" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Songti SC"; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">但佳能這種慷慨的賠償方案,居然被部分內地網民稱為「惡性賠償」,指骨子裏是看不起中國的勞動市場。這種「酸葡萄」心態背後反映的,其實是外資在內地根本兩面不是人。</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">目前中國封城的清零措施,已經被IMF警告成為今年世界經濟增長的最大威脅。中國的海外客戶擔心,如果對靠近中國出口中心的城市實施類似西安式的封鎖,會發生什麼情況。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">IMF不是無的放矢,美國物流公司 Flexport 發布的“海運時效指標”,已經警告,全球供應鏈的中斷率,已處於歷史最高水平。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Omicron 帶來的更直接的經濟威脅不是只針對外國客戶,而是針對中國自己的消費者。對旅行和聚會的間歇性限制,阻礙了零售支出,與去年同期相比,12 月名義零售支出僅增長 1.7%,並在調整通貨膨脹後出現萎縮。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">雖然去年中國 GDP達增長 8.1%,是自 2011 年以來的最快增速,但外界已相信這個趨勢難以持續。高盛提出,今年進一步的封鎖可能會使家庭消費增長減少整整一個百分點。它已將整體 GDP 增長預測,從 4.8% 下調至 4.3%,低於政府的目標。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">令外資憂慮,是中國對「不聽話」企業和疫情大流行的處理方式,同樣反映了其“運動風格”的治理,即集結幹部執行高層的口號和聲明,同時發動民眾對企業進行批判及抵制。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">但這種「霸權式」的群眾運動風格,已經發展出對自己不利的勢頭。最近幾週,政府已經意識到其過分熱心抑制房地產市場的努力以及對科技公司的監管打擊,可能會導致經濟下滑的危險。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">經濟學人提出,內地的政策制定者,現在已經意識到增長需要穩定,包括最近一系列減息以及財政政策支持,但這些手段顯然已經太遲,更重要時,中國現在應該對如何抵抗流行病,有同樣的認識。</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#外資撤走</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#群眾運動</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#惡性賠償</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#供應鏈中斷</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">#財經拆局</p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3965196602369825417.post-39272069683060122892022-01-25T06:49:00.007+08:002022-01-25T06:52:15.089+08:00折翼的國泰<p><span style="font-size: 15px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8QPeLn9h9Tv7R3qZDQRer-Wfk8Z7ajpsM6V2igQabuiop6_DF7UPusEIoZv37SIdCLy_GQn9NtAaX-pKR-_1TWDkMMWC-w_3tUYPxcwD8ve7ykxXodVliRm0J4ZNcJhFX_QRGx2DVUTDHPF4IejmEWQ7CxflV6VptzU9Y2-vwWD3DXnbqL7wqlv9lOg=s2202" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1377" data-original-width="2202" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8QPeLn9h9Tv7R3qZDQRer-Wfk8Z7ajpsM6V2igQabuiop6_DF7UPusEIoZv37SIdCLy_GQn9NtAaX-pKR-_1TWDkMMWC-w_3tUYPxcwD8ve7ykxXodVliRm0J4ZNcJhFX_QRGx2DVUTDHPF4IejmEWQ7CxflV6VptzU9Y2-vwWD3DXnbqL7wqlv9lOg=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">時間仿佛回到兩年前- 疫情剛爆發,晚市無堂食,農曆新年不敢拜年,每日都看張竹君追疫情。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">不同的是、經過兩年折磨,更多食肆已經年關難過,估計農曆年後更多食肆及小店會倒閉。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">當然,要捱過呢關,仲有香港航空公司-- 國泰航空週一預計,截至去年12月底止年度將錄得虧損約56億元至61億元,表面是較2020年度全年虧損216億元為佳,亦比分析員估計虧損100億元少。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">國泰指,去年虧損收窄主因是貨運需求強勁、貨運收益和運載率高企,以及公司持續有效地管理現金和成本。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">按半年計,推算國泰去年下半年已轉賺15億至20億元,亦較2020年下半年虧損118億元大為改善。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">不過正如路透指出╴國泰在去年下半年實現了驚人的利潤後,由於更嚴格的機組人員隔離措施,預計將重新恢復燒錢。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">基於去年<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">12</span>月底及今年<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">1</span>月初,政府再收緊旅遊限制及機組人員檢疫要求,影響國泰的客運與貨運運力,初步評估由今年<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2</span>月起,每月營運現金消耗將達<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">10</span>億至<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">15</span>億元,重返<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2020</span>年<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">10</span>月重組後的初期水平。</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">受新限制措施影響,按國泰公布1 月份的客運量約為疫情前的 2%,貨運量約為疫情前的 20%。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">從國泰航空網站上列出、2 月和 3 月時間表,似乎與 1 月一樣「空閒」,每月只有少數飛往倫敦、悉尼和東京等目的地的航班,當中只有飛內地航線影響較少。</p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">至於區內競爭對手新加坡航空,雖然也像國泰缺乏本地航線,但旅行規則不像香港那麼嚴格,它預測 1 月和 2 月將分別達到疫情前的 47% 和 45% 的客運量。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">新加坡目前只要求入境旅客在兩天前進利PCR測試,基本上已採取病毒共存策略。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">機師短缺,成最大隱憂</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">今波第五疫情爆發,國泰成了眾矢之的,因兩名違反自我隔離措施的國泰機組人員引發Omicron疫情后,香港上個月引入了更嚴格的機組人員隔離規定。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">此後,兩人因違規行為被解僱、逮捕和起訴。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">特首更親自接見了國泰的主席及行政總裁,表明會追究公司責任。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">國泰去年7月至12月執行的「客機去、貨機返」政策,是因應香港的嚴格入境措施,唯一可以變通的方法:機艙服務員去年7至12月期間,如常執勤客機航班離港,然後在海外航點短暫停留,其間完全與社區隔離,其後只載貨客機返港。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">這個「客機去、貨機返」政策,成功令國泰現金流有所改善,去年<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">7</span>月至<span class="s2" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">10</span>月營運現金已接近收支平衡。</p><p class="p2" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">現在政府警告這個措施可能違反防疫規定(其實一旦被針對,調查後國泰肯定要罰巨額款項),加上Omicron出現,當局在去年12月29日更新相關規定,國泰亦隨即更改運作程序,所有於客機或貨機上執勤並曾在海外地區停留的機組人員,回港後必須入住指定檢疫酒店完成隔離。</p><p class="p6" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 19px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px;">貨機機組人員原獲豁免檢疫,但因接連有人員入社區後確診,最終貨機人員在酒店檢疫由<span class="s3" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>天延長至<span class="s3" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">7</span>天。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 19px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px;">據聞新措施已引起不少國泰機組人員不滿,部分早有離意就決定提早離職,而彭博早前亦引述一份備忘錄報道,國泰將向願意執飛更多「閉環」航班的機師發放更高獎金。</p><p class="p8" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 1.6px; min-height: 19px;"><br /></p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">據備忘錄顯示,國泰將向執飛兩個閉環的機長發放<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2.2</span>萬元,執飛<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">4</span>個或更多閉環的機長將獲得<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">2.9</span>萬元。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">閉環航班是指機組人員連續<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">3</span>至<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">4</span>周不間斷執飛,航班之間在酒店隔離,停飛後隔離兩周才准回家。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">以一個機長年薪動軋在<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">300-500</span>萬元之間,要整整一個月在外地接連「閉環」飛行,區區幾萬元的補水實在是九牛一毛,相信沒有幾個機長會接受。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">在嚴苛的限制下,可以預見是國泰運力,不論客機及貨機均會持續下跌,雖然國泰現金儲備<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">317</span>億元(當中已包括政府給予<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">78</span>億元過渡貸款融資),若每月現金消耗<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">10</span>億至<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">15</span>億元,國泰仍可支撐營運至少<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">21</span>個月。</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 20px;">但這個前提是香港的航空樞紐中心地位不變,如果政府堅持要「動態清零」,外資公司會撤離,更多是選揮與病毒共存的新加坡,屆時恐怕燒錢速度只會更快。</p><p class="p9" style="background-color: white; color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;">香港美國商會最近進行了會員調查,超過<span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">40%</span>的受訪者表示,他們更有可能離開香港,大多數人認為國際旅行限制是首要決定因素。</p><p class="p10" style="color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s4" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>國泰</p><p class="p10" style="color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>燒錢</p><p class="p10" style="color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>動態清零</p><p class="p10" style="color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>航空樞紐</p><p class="p10" style="color: #262626; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 17px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">#</span>財經拆局</p>Moneycafehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02222715055529689085noreply@blogger.com0