2007年5月14日星期一

技高一籌




曾經聽過一位老行尊講,喺80年代,單靠一條移動平均線,喺股壇馳騁過。

講真徹實執行技術指標,配合基本因素同經驗,的確可以提高勝算。
不過時代進步變遷,大家都要小心墮入技術陷井,好似我地今集嘉賓,曾淵滄教授,叫大家小心假消息,影響技術指標準確性

講到佢自創的曾氏通道,曾教授話佢宜家都唔會運用十九天移動平均線,因為已經太多人識用,就好容易墮入技術陷井。

其實技術分析發展到宜家,參考指標實已經多不勝數,常見的有移動平均線,相對強弱指數,隨機指數,陰陽燭等等。另一方面,過去十年,亦有新一學派興起,好似波浪理論,相反理論,型態走勢等等。

不過其實基本上,技術指標所參考的函數,離不開幾個主要範疇,包括計算時段內(30分鐘、60 分鐘、10 天、50 天、250 天… …।)的最高價、最低價、開盤價、收市價和成交量。大部分技術指標,就是將這五個函數,作出先後次序不同的加減乘除,計算出來一系列數字結果。

所以大家要理解,指標是透過一系列數據統計出來,盡信或者過分依靠,都不可取,作為參考增加勝算就可取。

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