2007年7月9日星期一

先瘋狂、後滅亡


一周人物又要選私募基金,原因是今個星期是人類歷史上,私募基金進行最多收購的一個星期,既然Economist都不怕累贅作封面,我們亦不怕跟風。

BCE、Virgin Media、Hilton……而單計上半年,私募基金就買左二萬七千億美元的「貨」,幾乎係舊年同期一倍,有人認為係反映私募基金規模日漸壯大,不過經濟學人就看到另一面: 「上帝要其滅亡、必先令其瘋狂!」

正如上篇「虎頭蛇尾」所講,私募基金有能耐將一間垂死公司「執靚」,之後即使再出售獲利,都已經是付出過心血、至少需要派人入董事局,跟進管理層進行改革,過程可能會令不少人失業(這個講法現在可能不對,經濟學人發現,企業改革後請的人反而增加),「湊仔」過程往往需要兩、三年時間。更重要是,私募基金透過杆桿借貸,令銀行體系內不流通的存款,大量投入到這些私募基金身上,成就Liquidity Boom。

不過這個現象現在可能面對嚴峻挑戰,由於兩星期前債市出現異常下跌,令資金成本大幅推高,對這類進行杆桿收購的私募基金來說,分分鐘可以面對更大災難,事實上這個星期,已經有美國及澳洲的私募基金,因為資金成本上升而將交易告吹。

儘管如此,我們認為,隨著更多私募上市,音樂椅未會咁快停下,而KKR繼黑石後加快上市,亦反映遊戲仲未結束,要知道,黑石跌破底價後仍有膽接力,不是KKR藝高人膽大,而是他們相信美國國會亦未必可以成功立法、提高私募的稅款。
有網友最近買入BX,雖然PE不平,不過要博反彈應該一些也不難。

2 則留言:

Cory 說...

共和黨人點會得罪華爾街班大佬? 仲有Nancy Pelosi 同佢老公係金融圈咁吃得開, 又話發展金融市場, 放寬薩班斯法案, 鼓勵IPO, 我想知無私募基金幫手, 邊有人黎上市?

雖然我蟹緊, 不過仍然對BX 有信心...... 唔知入股藍星單野搞點未呢?? 實激死凱雷..

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