2007年7月15日星期日

據為己有


講到大股東私有化上市公司,一般小股東,即使傳媒都會第一時間想找股壇長毛David Webb解扣一下,當然這是最方便方法,但正如嘉賓龔耀輝所講,小股東應嘗試自行分析,才是最直接最保障自己的方法。

一般的分析員會用「市價」及「資產淨值」跟大股東出價作比較,市價不可作準,除非公司長期缺乏成交,又或者質素奇劣,小股東才應該第一時間接受底於市價的收購建議,計數離場。

資產值:就要記著在通脹年代,個別資產基本上是按年升值,但保守的會計制度不會讓這些紙上富貴在盈利上反映。

另外,小股東決定接受私有化建議,除了交投,作價同資產值之外,亦要留意股分的投資前景,而投資者如何分析哪些公司正瀕臨垂死邊緣?一包括看負債水平,即Gearing,二是可看看核數師報告會否對持續經營有保留意見。

據以往經驗,私有化的活動一般是在市差時進行,因為市淡時投資者對前景沒有信心,令股票價格跌至十分低殘的水平,較公司的NAV出價大幅折讓,因此,大股東有誘因將公司私有化,用十分低的價錢,購回公司的資產。

但事易勢逆,目前股市暢旺,原則上大股東以高價私有化,並不化算,但仍然有私有化活動,當中原因可能包括私有化倘失敗, 亦有助抬高股價。不少分析相信,提出私有化的大股東,是要向市場表達對公司股價不滿意的有效途。

就好似近期華人置業大股東宣布私有化建議,不足數日,就決定擱置私有化,隨即多家私募基金,對沖基金增持股權消息不絶於耳,公司股價亦隨即由十四元水平,上破十五元水平,大股東究竟是否真的想私有化公司,還是深厚財技出場.....

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