2007年7月27日星期五

睇錯?!


次按危機大大話話都講左大半年,點解今時今日先至嚟話再爆煲?

有人話今次係次按影響左美樓市,又指觸發利差交易拆倉,原因幾乎同三月時候嘅翻版。

實際爆發點,其實又係私募。

62歲的KRAVIS,今個星期安排的一筆收購BOOTS的CDO,居然失手無人問津,令KKR收購Boots有變數,加上今個星期初,前財長斯諾領導嘅私募基金、一筆為安排收購「佳士拿」嘅債券,又因為投資者反應唔理想而「觸礁」,結果觸發骨排效應,最少三十五宗同類發債交易取消,投資銀行被迫自行承擔呢批帳面虧損嘅債券,

過去幾個星期,美國嘅投資銀行就吸納左近四百億美元嘅非評級債券,包括貝爾斯登同摩根士丹利在內嘅多間投資銀行,持有嘅高風險債券,由二月時嘅八百億美元,大幅增加至一千八百億美元。試問連呢班「FUND ENGINE」都要收柴,全世界的「錢從何而來」?

骨牌效應下,CDO債務抵押債券已經成為人見人怕、雞飛狗走的產品,貝爾斯登旗下對沖基金同澳洲ABSOLUTE CAPITAL就係咁頻臨倒閉。

評級機構話,次按引發嘅問題比預期嚴重,雷曼就估計,最終虧損會達到過千億美元。

到底PAULSON係仲講緊大話,定係任總過分杞人憂天?

大市有時要考驗的,就是投資者的勇氣,是耶非耶,肯定好快見到。

###################################

看了經濟學人的文章,有幾點很想補充一下:

今年以來有三分一的M&A,都是由私募帶頭的,因此今次次按危機肯定會令美國股市失去一支強心針。不過私募基金的掘起,老實說,也只是今年以來的事,之前黑石等私募一直都是扮得神神秘秘,只是為了上市,黑石先肯暴光讓人飽覽無遺。(話時話,KKR就無咁好彩!而家都62歲,唔知仲等唔等到!)而家市場歸於平淡,無左LBO/ CDO,一切先回歸基本。

次按對真正按揭市場有幾大影響,似乎真要在美國本土先可以感受到,不過對遠在彼岸的我們來說,第二季剛公布的美國經濟增長仍然樂觀,美股即使大跌,今年仍然升了一成。要說牛市結束,似乎這日子仍未來臨。

10 則留言:

Cory 說...

我既勇氣支持今日既增持行動

pakman 說...

Why finally now the blow up?

Because people finally believes me hahahahhaha

MoneyCafe 說...

PAKMAN,

TIME WILL TELL.
But I remeber you think HSBC result will good, Right?

MoneyCafe 說...

Cory,

Really appreciate your courage!
We think it is too early for carry trade finished. Thanks to the Japanese!

Cory 說...

日本經濟根本承受唔到依家日元既水平, 好快日元又會弱番.

跌市買貨, 都要曉揀...... 我希望自己無錯啦.

pakman 說...

Results will be "good"

But the forward guidance will be absolutely horrendous.

I am making a call on Monday to short HSBC.

Yes, you saw it here first on money cafe blog.

MoneyCafe 說...

The Death of HSBC!!! haha~

We interview Tony Measor, and said only in one situation will sold: change of management.

So, the departure of Michael Smith means......

匿名 說...

假如大陸有CDO,以內地的高樓價收入比率,樓價下跌如美國,中國經濟危機將會是如何,

會計仔 說...

匯豐份業績, 數字如何唔重要.

重要的是HSBC Finance 在美國產監file 的quarterly 10Q report 中會點寫自己的前景, 要知道, 在美國文件亂寫會比人告到PK, 可信度絕對會比mgt 講的高.

http://www.hsbc.com/1/PA_1_1_S5/content/assets/investor_relations/hfc2007form10q_1q.pdf p.10

At December 31, 2006, we had approximately $29.8 billion in adjustable rate mortgage loans at our Consumer Lending and Mortgage Services businesses. In 2007 and 2008, approximately $9.0 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively, of our adjustable rate mortgage loans will experience their first interest rate reset based
on receivable levels outstanding at March 31, 2007. In addition, our analysis indicates that a significant portion of HSBC Finance Corporation the second lien mortgages in our Mortgage Services portfolio at March 31, 2007 are subordinated to first lien
adjustable rate mortgages that will face a rate reset in the next three years. As interest rates have risen over the last
three years, many adjustable rate loans are expected to require a significantly higher monthly payment following their first adjustment.

p.26:

A significant number of our second lien customers have underlying
adjustable rate first mortgages that face repricing in the near-term which has impacted the probability of repayment
on the related second lien mortgage loan. As the interest rate adjustments will occur in an environment of
substantially higher interest rates, lower home value appreciation and tightening credit, we expect the probability of
default for adjustable rate first mortgages subject to repricing as well as any second lien mortgage loans that are
subordinate to an adjustable rate first lien "WILL BE GREATER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HISTORICALLY EXPERIENCED".

依段野由06q3開始出現, 次次都有, 基本上次按最大的風險期就是班友借2/28 Adjustable rate mortgage 既時候, 一過頭兩年低息期, 每月要還多4-5成錢果時, 你集集既下集預告(有法律效力, 唔係dry up果隻) 都話主角會中槍, 你點叫fund 佬信你已改善呀?

我搵到一幅圖, 講美國ARM interest reset 的should period 係今年6月開始, head 係07Q4 to 08Q1, 唔知信唔信得過, 不過似乎和出事時間幾match. Exhibit 42

http://www.ltadvisors.net/Info/1837.htm

無論如何, 只要份10Q report 唔踢走依段野, 專業少少既投資者都唔會太敢信佢的.

會計仔 說...

typo, 唔係美國產監, 係美國証監