2007年8月8日星期三

爆煲


講了半年「次按」,是時候講下什麼是「次按」。

有傳媒簡單將次按=CDO=MBS=ABS,實情是大錯特錯:資產/ 按揭抵押證券(ABS/ MBS)只是最簡單將銀行收回來的資產重新包裝成債券,然後再售予投資者。大家記得的「五隧一橋」、按揭證券公司發行的按揭債券都是類似資產,簡而言之,風險低,回報穩、難望大升。

投資銀行當然不滿足一些回報咁低項目,於是衍生出多重架構的CDO抵押債券工具。CDO往往分為多個級別,中間有證券掛勾、債券、按揭資產等組成部分。為左滿足高息一族,部分資產當然是來自風險最高的證券,計埋回報,分分鐘可以有二、三十巴仙回報。

呢批CDO亦非全數屬次按級別,只有當中低於AAA級別,即是最大機會違約的,先屬於次按(SUBPRIME)。

但大家要留意,所謂AAA級別的CDO,並非「永恆」,當評級最差的B級或A級債券出現違約、被一筆勾消後,你自以為無風險的AAA債券,就會自動跌落至A或B級。

看見很多中資銀行好自豪話自己持有的次按評級是AAA、心中就暗覺好笑,「昆」你買CDO的投行看來事前無向你解釋清楚!

到底次按問題有幾深?馮孝忠提到,經歷幾個星期拋售潮後,呢批次級CDO由於無人問津,不少已經跌至相當「殘」水平。不過當市場最恐慌時候,反而令有實力買家可以執平貨。就連之前睇淡債市嘅債券大王BILL GROSS,都開始轉軚增持高息債券,因此由中國買起BEAR STEARNS之流,都未必無道理。

########################################
伯南克唔肯出手。
FT標題係FAIL,紐約時報簡單些:減息無望。

顯然,今次會後聲明,係反映咗FOMC入面鷹派委員嘅主流意見,即係一切以控制通脹行先。

看看鷹派代表人物,除左Bernanke本人外,副主席Geithner、普爾、莫斯科同科恩都係武林鷹派正宗。能代表鴿派,只有廖廖兩人:耶倫Yellen同 Hoeing。

可能前任格老實在出色,多次具前瞻性出手救市 (先唔好計成效),原本至少希望伯南克可以修改貨幣政策中性取向。有大行形容,伯南克依家就好似睇著小朋友一齊「玩」,就算佢地「打交」都唔會理,要到受傷先出手。

不過FT社論就撐伯南克,形容佢作為機師,飛機遇到氣流,最多都係透過廣播器安撫乘客,無需要緊急降落。

「Helicopter Ben」,就睇你點出手!

1 則留言:

匿名 說...

warhammer gold warhammer money warhammer accounts tibia money tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts buy runescape accounts runescape money runescape gold runescape gp runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling cheap rs2 powerleveling runescape equipment buy rs equipment runescape runes cheap rs2 runes runescape logs cheap rs2 logs runescape items buy runescape items runescape quest point rs2 quest point cheap runescape questpoint runescape gold runescape items runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape items runescape accounts runescape gp runescape accounts runescape money runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling tibia gold dofus kamas buy dofus kamas wow power leveling wow powerleveling runescape questpoint rs2 questpoint Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling Hellgate money Hellgate gold buy runescape logs buy rs2 items cheap runescape items Hellgate London gold Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold runescape items rs2 accounts cheap rs2 equipments lotro gold buy lotro gold buy runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape runes lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling eve isk eve online isk buy runescape power leveling rs2 power leveling tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold Scions of Fate Gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium SOF Gold Age Of Conan Gold AOC Gold ArchLord gold tibia money tibia gold runescape accounts runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling buy ArchLord gold DDO Plat Dungeons and Dragons Online Plat