2008年1月11日星期五

油、油、油


上星期看完一份報告,說內地石油需求,好想跟大家分享,就是滙豐證券認為,即使奧運年完結,中國石油需求仍然強勁。

報告說,隨著零八年奧運,內地進入石油需求高峰期,根據其他城市紀錄,承辦當年石油需求增加百分之六至八,同時一般估計只會造成一次性影響。不過,滙豐證券認為,內地經濟結構改變,工業活動同城市化,會令需求持續,情況就好似六四年日本,八八年南韓,這兩個地方,在奧運後六年,石油需求累積增幅高達一倍,並提到當時石油消費增長平相等經濟增長的一點五至二倍。

這些統計相當驚人,亦令我起溫總經曾說過要解決內地油荒和價格要跟國際接軌的問題,若需求真的持續強勁,又要避免經濟過熱,這兩問題真的解決得來。

油價跟國際接軌,可減低不必要的浪費及需求,但中央又要面對通脹壓力。

「有錢買不到油」是經常在內地朋友們聽到的,不過近期聽到有點改善的跡象,由於大量進口柴油,增加庫存,聽說二月開始,中國可能暫停進口柴油,但實際油荒問題,仍然未完全解決。

有學者說過,要解決油價對經濟嘅拖累,中央需理順價格機制以及打破壟斷。

但我想當務之急,其中一問題是內地沒有基礎數據統計及發布,權威的詳細統計,月度公布,了解供求變化,才有解決的共同基準。

2 則留言:

閒人 說...

看完今晚moneycafe, 很想提供意見。發現你們經常打錯別字,文章裏有錯字尚可接受,但螢光幕時而出現的錯字則太礙眼。怎會是「八支陽『竹』」?應是『陽燭』,這會教壞觀眾,請改善。

匿名 說...

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