2008年9月10日星期三

惡哽


8月分居民消費價格指數由超過百分之6水平,急速回落到百分之4.9。

整體通脹喺2月分見左高位後,持續回落,現水平已經係舊年7月時低位,亦較接近中央目標。

表面真係好消息。

過去半年市場一直擔心通脹高企,令到宏調一浪接一浪,令人應接不下。

解釋通脹回落咁快,除左食品價格回落外,官方講釋例牌會話係宏調收效。

不過真正推動通脹大幅回落背後原因,正是反映經濟活動減慢。

印證埋同期公布嘅外貿數據就進一步證實呢個憂慮。

8月分內地出口升兩成一,比7月低近6個百分點,進口增幅7月有近3成4,到8月就急速回落到只有兩成三。跌幅不可謂不大,反映內部需求減慢。

因此今次通脹大幅回落,其實唔係好事,更令人憂心之前宏調實在太重手。

其實之前都有不少聲音針對人行,認為宏調係落重左藥,甚至上書國務院投訴,而內地官場一直流傳人行行長周小川會提早調職。

好明顯,信貸過分收緊、又遇上外圍經濟逆轉,企業為控制通脹付出代價。

當然依家各大行都懂得說,內地會將從緊貨幣政策,調控到中性,又會減存款準備金率。

不過更令人憂慮的是扭曲的價格機制,可能引爆更嚴重惡性後果。

外界關注嘅上游通脹,即係工廠出品價格,升幅擴大至百分之至10.1,係十三年新高。

這反映了中央硬性規定企業不能將成本漲幅轉嫁予消費者,結果公司只能夠自己「硬哽」,由此觀之,上市公司毛率率、盈利都只會再跌,股市前景容不下半點樂觀。

13 則留言:

匿名 說...

希望胡小姐不要樣樣扮識野...好難頂。

匿名 說...

Dear Moneycafe,
Pls add the indication digits (e.g from 0 to 10) on the left of similar graphs next time, (it will be even better if you input points on the left of the daily Heng Seng Index's graph), as sometimes it's quite hard to imagine how much the indexes have changed.

And as well, pls try your best to change the dow jones industrial indexes' graph in the morning show, as it just looks so horrible.

Thanks.

匿名 說...

and also to the anonymous above, would you please be a bit more kind to Ms. Woo? I really don't think there is any problem with her on the various shows. If you really do mind her opinions or even her existance on Channel no.8, you are always welcome to switch to another channel!

Thanks again.

MoneyCafe 說...

多謝提點,我地知graphic一直是我們的弱中之弱......

and....我們尊重不同的觀眾意見,亦認同個人有不同觀點,但也希望大家可以尊重一下自己。

謝!

亞羊 說...

閣下認為唔想睇,可以轉台.
冇謂...." xxx "???

何必負面?? 何必呢???

匿名 說...

若要人尊重, 首先要自量, 不要扮野, 唔識唔係罪, 變得乞人憎係人都唔想, 原本節目都幾好, 但可惜有人每事插咀, 做主持, 唔係嘉賓, 應留機會比人講, 主持請保持中立, 不必給主觀意見, 可多提問題給嘉賓回應, 想講多的自己野就去出面的講座..做人地嘉賓

亞羊 說...

死啦... 個blog冇新料...

可能 佢地一個唔玩.
小好多野睇...

張就吓.....

匿名 說...

to the anonymous above AGAIN,
Pls do watch the "Fast Money" on CNBC sometime (5a.m HK time), you will see hosts can be subjective sometimes, as long as they don't manipulate facts, personally I don't think that's a problem. Undoubtedly it's a must to remain neutral when reporting news, however, this programme is more like a forum, both the hosts and guests should give me their own opinions. In addition to the interruption issue, I reckon hosts may somehow interrupt the conversation due to time control issue.

and to Moneycafe,
can you pls somehow give us a rough date for ultimately changing all your graphics and stuff? cos i am considering to end my contract with cable..

Thanks again!

查比斑特頓 說...

根本那個匿名對胡小姐是玩針對,
在blog中,每日都留下同一句批評;
像逼人接受他那主觀意見.態度又差

不同主持有不同的風格,不用強逼人改變;而且有不少觀眾喜愛看她這樣的風格,有親切的感覺,不用那麼嚴肅,當然有一些改善空間

初頭睇睇下,以為針對袁彌明的人跑到這裏來.........

亞羊 說...

不過早上5点睇電視......

我只會同亞周小姐談心多些..即周公個女.
我睇佢想令多d人認識不同行業知識..
從而望間接加強對證券深入分析,
唔再麻目追股票數碼

匿名 說...

九流分析員

匿名 說...

dog流 !

匿名 說...

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