2008年10月2日星期四

救世主

有咩能夠對抗通脹?

美國國庫券?黃金?

是盛惠106萬港元一股的巴郡。

巴郡年中落過11萬美金的低位後,已經迅速回升上近14萬美元,升幅兩成半。

比起歷史高位只係跌一成。

單睇第三季埋單,巴郡錄得百分之8點2嘅升幅,遠比標普五百跌9%理想。

面對全球金融動盪,投資者己經將「巴郡」視作資金避難所之一,相信巴郡股價抗跌力會較強,亦吸買盤吸納巴郡,帶動股價造好。

股神話周街跳樓貨,巴群會繼續買,但就奉勸大家要量力而為,買乜唔緊要,借錢槓杆就盡量減少。
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不過我認為真正的救市主、不是巴菲特,是考克斯。

在整個救市方案經修訂後,加入了不少新條款,不過有一點在傳媒算是較少報道,但就令我眼前一亮。

就是SEC放寬「Mark to Market」規定,、即係金融機構可以自行決定,唔需要再以市價入帳。

哇,呢招如果過得,敢肯定是終極救市方案,保爾森再用唔用公帑買銀行爛帳,已經變得無關重要。

銀行可以按自己的計算方式,將不流通資產計算入帳,換言之,過去拖累銀行要大幅撇帳的理由已經不再存在,銀行無需要再「Fire Sale」那些資產。

有分析指,未來將銀行有很大誘因,調高資產的Fair Value,如果方案通過,我係銀行就一定重新做過第三季分業績, 肯定盈利會大幅增長,到時仲要低聲下氣、監平監賤賣資產比你保爾森!

其實早在去年第四季,黑石已經公開呼籲放棄市價入帳做法,不過當時未有銀行爆煲,呢個做法當時無咩市場。

當然現在是「急事急辦」,沽空已經率先被禁,而家連會計制度都可以改埋,你係炒家仲點唔會盡快平埋淡倉?

5 則留言:

匿名 說...

change MC, please

匿名 說...

Not Mark to Market 是毒药而非仙丹. 如果真係實行,有邊個重會買股票,銀行重會肯借錢出來? 死得仲快.

匿名 說...

係通用電氣,唔係通用汽車。

匿名 說...

keep it in saving account, inflation is better than bankruptcy. Choice a largest liquidity one and do not put it in one backet. dont say how to against inflation, capital is king, cash is king ok!

匿名 說...

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