2009年1月19日星期一

5=8?

周日有機會見到石SIR,不禁即時問佢點解會預言滙豐會成為下一隻八號仔?

如果真有其事,肯定死得人多,事關有香港有九成九長線基金/退休基金都有揸滙豐,就算閣下咁好彩無買股票,唔多唔少都會掂到匯豐多少。

按石Sir講法,8號仔比喻當然係誇張,不過想當年電盈由折算百四蚊數落嚟,而家得4蚊左右,既然而家匯豐「Q仔」都做到四十蚊樓下,咁有咩係唔可能?

不錯,如果回想當日滙豐仲有90蚊樓上,都好難想像會跌到今天十幾年低位,所以5=8,也沒有誰敢寫包單不會發生,但有一個基本分別,就令我們認為,機會係微乎其微。

答案當然就是管理層質素,單計呢部分,滙豐呢一世、肯定都唔會係「老電」翻版。

滙豐管理層一代接一代都係人材輩出,由蒲偉士、至龐約翰,打落到葛霖以至紀勤,就連一批批的中層、如邵銘高、艾爾敦、林紀利,都是獨當一面人物,單計呢批人才,8號仔點比較?

05年退休的艾爾敦,更是少數值得令人尊敬的銀行家。

曾經同艾爾敦做過個人訪問,他自退出匯豐後,一直都留在香港,曾經擔任兩屆香港總商會主席,是一個真正對香港有承擔的人。

當年,艾爾敦亦有參與收購Household交易,因此,由佢嚟評論返今天的局面就最合適。

艾爾敦不諱話,匯豐成為左全球拯救金融機構行動中嘅犧牲者。

退休近四年,首次評論匯豐,艾爾敦話,匯豐仍然係一間穩健銀行,就算被逼集資,亦無外界講得咁悲觀。

面對一分又一分睇淡嘅研究報告,艾爾敦話,管理層唔回應係正常。

但對於撰文呢的報告嘅分析員,佢提出一項要求,就係懂得當你犯錯時,需要站出來承擔錯誤的責任。

4 則留言:

匿名 說...

Please read
http://hongkong-today.blogspot.com/

for views of HSBC fund raising which is worth reading.-SC

大傻 說...

如果大股東都幫手唱匯豐要集資,是不是大股東想要配股?現在股價已令大股東唾涎?

匿名 說...

I don't quite understand why people keep on saying HSBC is oversold. Comparing 2 totally different stocks within a 1-year horizon, HSBC vs. Verizon Communications, where VZ is a relatively stable recession-proof stock, and HBC price drop only matched VZ's until late Nov. After late Nov the market finally paid a richer premium for VZ, which makes a lot of sense. Similar case for JNJ, HBC was trading at a premium over JNJ until mid-Oct. The market was totally insane when they thought HBC was worth a premium over JNJ in this environment.

When comparing HBC with other financials, it is still trading at a much richer premium. HBC might not fall below it's current price, however, I do not believe it's vastly oversold.

亞羊 說...

時間及結果就是最明確的証明.