2009年2月8日星期日

強人回歸

唔知大家有無睇開電腦雜誌? 知唔知去年最賣得電腦產品是什麼?

高清手指是其一,不過真正的贏家,肯定是Netbook 市場。

對於Netbook市場有一定定義,普遍行Intel Atom,螢幕呎吋在10吋左右,有時甚至節省成本,有三成Netbook連OS(Window)也省下來,改裝不花錢的Linux。(這對微軟亦構成了致命有打擊。)

至於以往市場見慣的SSD記憶,由於實用性低,而家反而普遍行回250G硬碟。

對於一般文書處理、以至上網寫blog,甚至見影碟,如果不介意細畫面,Netbook早已成為潮流。

Netbook去年銷售翻了一翻,而受到Netbook的帶動,去年Notebook的第四季銷售急升了四成,遠遠拋離Desktops倒退百分1.3%天,更甚是Notebook的市場佔有率首次超過了Desktop。

目前市場估計,是每賣出8部Notebook,就至少有一部是Netbook,可想而知市場潛力有幾大。

說了那麼多Netbook,其實是想說由去年留意呢個產品後,我一直在等聯想幾時會打進呢個市場?

華碩的Eee PC早在07年底推出,到Acer去年第一季亦加進這個市場。聯想呢?

去年十月,連同今個月最新的所謂S10e加強版,前後只有三款Netbook。

華碩今個月已累積出了21款。

以目前市佔率計,Acer同華碩目前就佔了Netbook近九成市場。

所以當時我早斷定,聯想股票拈不得。

亦因此難怪聯想第3季要蝕成9670萬美金,頭3季合計,雖然賺3700百幾萬,但按年大跌九成。毛利,同銷售都跌。

聯想近3年,首次季度虧損後,最終要創辦人、柳傳志復出

一手創立同揍大聯想,柳傳志仍然支持楊元廢,認為國際化策略無錯,今次復出,純粹係協助公司渡過經濟困境。

楊元慶就被降職,改為出任首席執行官,其實之前內地報章盛傳,曾經提出請辭嘅佢話,連佢自己都承認,要處理環球業務的確感到吃力。

面對今次聯想高層大換血,市場似早有期待,股價周五大漲了一成。

對於柳傳志復出,香港有傳媒形容05年以來聯想就好似發了場「春秋大夢」,而家又回歸至四年前起步回點。內地就較為正面去看,甚至以Steve Job回歸蘋果,以及戴爾重新執掌Dell為比喻。

依我看,畢竟柳總已年屆65歲,雖然有他回歸聯想可以盡早打通公司內部脈絡,不過如果未能急起直追搶回重要市場,聯想前景仍然不太樂觀。

13 則留言:

亞羊 說...

希望是Apple 返版.

不過也可以yahoo的楊先生wor.

佢始終是中國人,結果可能是一樣.

炒上後再睇下一個業績.

匿名 說...

时势做英雄,加点运气,就是成功啦!
次一时, 比一时. 大江东去浪涛尽,不少英雄南征北伐, 现今而垂垂老尔. 一个老人, 一个是每天都是急促变化的市场,那能做什么-SC

pakman 說...

I bought lenovo b4 the announcement...

匿名 說...

Lenovo is not a bad choice. I have used IBM/Lenovo different models for many years-SC

匿名 說...

Disagree, the value of the company varies all the time. It might hit the bottom of the wave but soon it will bounce back. Doubt that the Chinese govt would let it slip. Surely it will get a pat on the back by the govt. I presume they've also had these marketing figures in hands too. Come on LENOVO!!!!

匿名 說...

There is no 100% disagree nor 100%agree, there are always somewhere between white and black called grey. I am talking about the notebook, not the shares, hope there is no misunderstanding. If to invest, why to buy shares with risks adjusted returns which are lower than others. There are plenty of other attractive shares that you can buy after the crisis, why get into Lenovo which is now facing tense competitive from overseas markets. The Government has been very busy for every industry from resrouces to telecommunications, from export to import, from food to health, from pollution to eletric power, why bother to look into a private enterprise at this very moment. If a company is always relying on the Government to help, you have to think twice for it in the long run. Friend, if you have bought the Lenovo, please consider to switch to others, otherwise good luck to you.-SC

匿名 說...

Sorry SC, my comment refers to the article, no offence to anyone here. Thanks to your comment too. I just realise lenovo still has the potential to compete with other big brands, you never know! 2319 might be a wise choice when it slides below $10 as it has started selling their stocks again after passing the official test.

匿名 說...

tmr is a mystery...lol

MoneyCafe 說...

當然,netbook是雙刃劍....
成本低、不過毛利更低....
做又未必有錢賺、不做市場佔有率就跌。

上星期已經有消息指,連Dell亦計劃打入smartphone市場,考慮推出WM6或Google Phone,相信下月就有分曉。

p.s.有朋友來電更正,說s10效能不差,不過文聯想實在太遲打入市場,而家連做電視的都推出平價電腦....

匿名 說...

Smartphone 转得快, 款式功能网络等都比Notebook & Netbook 多变化, 自然市场机会会大很多,所以联想要找出路,应该要在定位想想-SC

亞羊 說...

聯想曾經出過,在國內見過.

不過試過就放低,不用也罷.

最後好似連詀部門也賣掉.

匿名 說...

楊元廢...haha...打錯字又未錯得晒 XDDD

MoneyCafe 說...

haha, 又衰左.....
不過又真係唔錯得晒, 當我有意錯啦!