2009年7月25日星期六

種族經濟學

有無諗過會喺屋企比人拘捕?

美國馬薩諸塞州警方,上星期查案時,拘捕一個著名黑人學者,其後證實係誤會,但事件引起種族爭議。

總統奧巴馬更牽連其中,佢批評警方愚蠢,警方堅持冇做錯,要求奧巴馬道歉。

一宗懷疑入屋爆竊案,帶隊既白人警長拘捕黑人疑犯。

之後查清楚,被捕既原來係屋主銷咗案。

當時被捕既、原來係著名種族學權威、哈佛大學教授蓋茨。

蓋茨訪華之旅返到馬薩諸塞州屋企,發現門鎖壞咗,強行推門,途人以為有賊報警。

警長指蓋茨唔肯合作,講粗口鬧警察,又只是出示大學職員證,證明唔到佢係戶主。

蓋茨就指警察態度差,認為因為自己係黑人,警察至亂黎。

時代雜誌選過、25個全國最有影響力人物,蓋茨榜上有名。

佢原來仲係總統奧巴馬個Friend。

奧巴馬就喺黃金時間、全國直播記者會,嚴厲批評警方。

「警方行為愚蠢」(Police acted stupidly)!

奧巴馬話,呢件事反映美國社會仲存在種族問題。

佢又比喻,如果有日唔見左門匙,強行打開白宮大門,可能會被射殺。

拉人既警長,堅持冇做錯,毋須道歉,上司亦支持佢,話當時拉人、合法合理。

警察指奧巴馬的批評,傷害警隊。全國警官協會話奧巴馬應該攪清楚、至好評論,要求奧巴馬道歉。

而奧巴馬之後,為自己解畫,承認自己對案件詳情不甚明瞭,又話非常敬重警察云云。

無論係奧巴馬,定係過往總統,好少咁直接觸及種族議題,大家都知搞種族沖突,對政府來說是沒有好下場。

對於警方內部的種族歧視問題,"More Sex is Safe Sex:The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics"一個有關公路調查都幾有趣。

一條州際95公路,一個警方調查發現,黑人車輛被截查是否有藏毒的次數,比白人高出兩倍半。

那藏毒的比例又有多少? 黑人是百分之0.3,幾乎與白人一樣。那可以證明警方是有針對黑人吧?

且慢,不要記著黑人被攔截的數目是白人的三倍,如果警方不是增加攔截黑人,那藏毒的黑人會增加多少?

經濟學家發現,如果警方只著力攔截黑人車輛,就會變相鼓勵更多白人帶毒品,因為可以瞞得過警方。相反增加攔截白人,黑人帶毒又會增加,現在雙方的藏毒率機會一樣,正是一個動態平衡。

紐約時報話,今次事件可能觸發了一個埋藏在美國社會的深層炸彈,搞得不好,分分鐘比起次按同醫療改革更令奧巴馬難以應令。

說到底,到底是誰stupidly?

9 則留言:

匿名 說...

Widsom told us that 22500 is on the card. It is a liquidity driven market & up market only small retreat at important level such as 20,000.
DO not unload it otherwise you will miss the boat

Aladdin 說...

22,500 ?? 閣下已經中左泡沫既毒...

匿名 說...

Let's see man....
Trend is your friend.
Those who always put economics in mouth are those of poor scholarship and economists.If economics can rationally explain the theories, all can get rich. Why there are so few riches while poor still belong to the majority.

匿名 說...

Agreed, every bull market has bubbles. If there are no bubbles, there are no asset price appreciation. I am more bullish, will see 25,000 in the first quarter of 2010.

匿名 說...

我也同意!
尽信书不如无书!!
很多经济理论都不能解释股市行为.
从来资金市是最可靠的.
看来恒生和 H 股市场只是大涨小回!

匿名 說...

Mr. Wong Wai Hong was totally and really bearish all year around.
He selectively saying all the negative to support his views that the market should go down. At the beginning, I followed his word and squared off half of my positions around 17,000 by listening to him.Those position were stop loss from 23,000. I do not blame for wrong view of someone but Mr. Wong 's remarks could hurt many investors for the last couple of months.
What a pity to follow his view!!!
I prefer to switch to NOW to avoid the impact from him.

匿名 說...

Bubbles are better than those poison pills given by the market commentors. Mr. Tsang's has a famous remarks "九流分析员" but I would rather say they are " 狗流分析完"

Aladdin 說...

見到你地班盲毛過咗20,000點,先係咁講22,500,23,000,25,000!! 我更信泡沫爆破在即... 哈哈!!

匿名 說...

看谁是盲毛!!!
Aladdin, will remind you again once touch this level.
Hope you are not going broke by then.