2009年8月3日星期一

明日之星

呢幾日眼見資金不斷擁入滙豐,都可以預見業績一定會見得下人。

中期核心盈利倒退,但好過預期。撥備比舊年下半年改善,財資市場更賺大錢。

今年可能因為業績好,匯豐集團主席葛霖親自到港派成績表。

頭六個月,匯豐賺三十三億幾,跌五成六。如果扣除自行債務工具公平值入帳因素,盈利就跌兩成二。

至於早前匯豐自己放風,話供股涉及就有47億美金技術虧損,但匯豐今次突然改口風,話對財務無影響,亦無列入損益表中,結果當然製造了心理預期。

期內,壞帳同相關信貸撥備有139億幾美金,按年多三成九,不過較舊年下半年少左百分之6。

匯豐話,但難以預計壞帳係咪見頂,但葛霖表明,最困難時間已經過去。

另一個叫人意外的是,主要係市場交易為主嘅財資業務最突出,按年升升一倍三。負責業務嘅明日之星、執行董事歐智華仲話,今次表現並非一次過,下半年仍然會理想。

美國業務繼續虧損,匯豐融資虧損24億幾美元,較舊年下半年大幅減少近半。

雖然上半年股本回報得百分之6.4,集團話有信心可以回報雙位數。

套用返形容高盛嚟形容匯豐都可以,就係「成功係建立喺對手痛苦身上」,單睇同舊年下半年比較,環球銀行及資本市場盈利高出七倍,而佢地債券發行商嘅排名,根據彭博嘅統計,由第三位跳升到全球第一位,而其他交易收入都係好過預期。

睇埋個交易收益淨額佔收入比率,由舊年6%,跳升到15.5%水平,對匯豐來說,係非常罕有,亦證明今次揸鑊剷個個真係好有表現。

有人說,每當有一個危難出現時,亦代表有一個機會誕生英雄,三月供股時造就了霍嘉治,今天的環球銀行及資本市場勝出,就輪到歐智華跑出。

要說負面的話,彭博形容,呢個係「Unexpected Profit」,即係飛來橫財,問題係,第日仲係咪可以持續?

對於Trading Profit,基本上透明度是非常之低,大家根本無從知道匯房揸了什麼資產。

肥仔孫柏文話,今次業績「彷如迷霧」,有得揀,應該避之則吉喎。

不過調轉頭看,就算是高盛也不會告訴股東它的資產分佈及投資策略。在「良行驅逐劣行」下,匯豐呢類能安然渡過今次風暴的銀行,只要眼光不要太差,無論做Deal定收購,肯定有更大優勢。

6 則留言:

匿名 說...

Buy 291 -SC

匿名 說...

What a rubbish to listen to 黄元山&沈振盈 last night. 黄先生 may be a good in structuring credit products in the past but when come to economics definitively is not the one who can speak about the market, especially the financial market. His deleveraging theories and commenting about the bubbles made me laugh. Worst of all, 沈先生 confused the viewers even further by stating the swimming pool down to jacuzzi. Even the host Miss Ku asked the audience to figure out what they said.--HAHA
It is even odd for 沈先生to defend 黄先生 in front of the camera by saying the TV viewers did not understand 黄先生's standpoints and misinterpret what he said in the past. Funny, is 沈先生是黄先生肚子里的虫吗????? What a simple guy but sometimes naive!!

匿名 說...

Yes, think the same.
The guest should speak just for himself/herself on topics they know most. If it is not their area of expertise, better be humble to say it is not my position to comment rather to pretend an expert.

匿名 說...

I watched the programme too last night. Both of Mr. Wong and Mr. Shen are very disappointing. They are not economists nor financial market experts to give opinions on US markets, so better for them to focus back on areas they have experiences or knowledge- say credit products or individual HK stocks.

匿名 說...

上面位人兄都幾偏激,如果按你要求,怕且全香港都無咩人可以comment 美國經濟....包括留在本港的經濟師。

我又幾buy黃元山講deleveraging 的說法,如果你有本事,有睇下銀行肯借幾錢比你炒孖展....

匿名 說...

That is not the point.
If he tries to say something of something he does not really know and answers just becasue of being air in the programme, then better say I am not an expert in this subject & not to comment rather to dig out soemthing to mislead the audience. I read the book written by Mr. Wong, inside which are more related to his job on credit structured products. Honestly speaking, credit products are more of packaging of the underlyings and mark up the investment grade to enhance the returns. The banks can use it to arbitrage the capital leverage. I am also from investment bank and knows all the tricks behind. Some might be good in micro and some might be good in macro but one should always be humble when certain subjects are touched. As said, he might have good exposure in credit but to comment on US economy, he is not in a good position to tell. Hope you are not Mr. Wong to answer my remarks.