2009年8月6日星期四

驚你唔死

最近英國公布嘅經濟數據,無論係GDP,定係服務業指數,以至樓價表現都可以持續有改善,不但跑贏全個歐洲,更甚係比美國更突出。

好似係PMI,係全個歐洲首個突破50點衰退擴張分界線,市面好似一片欣欣向榮。

英鎊受到帶動,可以升至十個月高位。

因此當英倫銀行開會後宣布,擴大量化寬鬆政策,消息震驚市場。

英倫銀行,維持利率不變。

但宣布,將量化寬鬆政策規模,由原本1250億英鎊,提高到1750億英鎊。

英倫銀行話,金融市場雖然穩定,但仲好脆弱。

商業,同家庭開支雖然回升,但經濟衰退程度,比預期嚴重。

佢地話,刺激經濟同量化寬鬆政策,正在收效,為左改善經濟,有需要擴大收購債券工具資
產規模。

英國近期公布經濟數據理想,市場原本估計,英倫銀行會公布,點樣遂步淡出量化寬鬆政策

受消息影響,英鎊匯價下跌過近百五點子,由十個月高位回落。

其實之前市場對於英倫銀行係咪擴大量化寬鬆計劃嘅規模,意見已經有好大分歧。

分析員形容,英倫銀行今晚嘅議息結果,將會係今年以嚟、最唔明朗嘅一次。事關,佢地喺上一次議息會議,將量化寬鬆計劃購買資產嘅規模,維持喺1250億英鎊,若果今次會議不進一步提高,勢令市場失望。

無論如何,政策公布後,英國股市升幅擴大。央行咁忍手,大家識部署啦!

但亦有分析員擔心,英倫銀行再擴大購買資產規模,嚟緊可能會引發通脹壓力升溫。

4 則留言:

亞羊 說...

真是好消息,
正想賣掉牧羊羊場,仲怕冇人買....


可以高價賣掉了,英鎊起了不少...

咩... 咩.. 咩....

匿名 說...

Why the people always said there are bubbles in our stock market? The answer is they have not yet bought their shares or underweighted in this rising market. Current level of HK stock is not expensive at all. We cannot use 11000 to say that we have risen more than 9000 points to conclude our market is expensive. Bear in mind, the market aat 11000had been overshot by bad news overseas and the placement of HSBC. Otherwise the market level bottom should be 15,500 given China is far better than anywhere overseas. Same applied to 23000, the market is overshot of news circulated there were direct through train of China Fund into HK stock market. Right now, at the expected PE at 17, the market' optimum level should be somewhere between 22500 and 25000.H shares index should even higher. Obviously, since the space of monetary and fiscal polices are samll, the useful weapons that can be used in China or US is to push up the stock markets to release purchase power to consume so that it can revive the economies. Looking back for the last 6 months, HK stocks is a rational market, we always walk behind A shares in China and even we dropped and corrected many times between 18,000 and 20,000 before New York stocks moved. Currently, I believe the investment funds from China and overseas will continue to come in until there are basic change of monetary policy in China and US-say increase of base interest rates which at this moment are highly unlikely.

Mr. Yam thinks there is a bubble, may be his personal pension funds are underloaded and need the some correction in the market to go down for him to buy. As we all know, the staff of HKMA have strict guidelines not to let the staff to buy stocks to avoid of conflict of interest. So, he needs some downside to buy when he resigns.

匿名 說...

Buys 941 aim initial price at HKD100

匿名 說...

Advices to HK Government for strategies in securing the Financial Market status:

1. To set up a listing board for "A" shares to accomodate dual listing and IPO in HKEX to allow legitimate RMB holders in HK and China to invest. Next step is to expand the circulation of RMB in HK

2. To promote Hong Kong as a major fianacial center of marketing to promote financial products in China.

3. To encourage HK as a major center of custodianship, clearing and settlement for commodities, futures and fiancial products in China. The selling points are the legal ownership & ownership under the jurisdiction of common law for settlement of disputes.

4. Hong Kong is to act as a major Risk Managment Centre for Financial Instiutions, Corporations and Banks in China. Apart from audit, risk management is a key potential areas that can be explored & promoted in years ahead, especially after the tsumani.-SC