2009年9月14日星期一

勝利宣言?

傳媒形容,奧巴馬呢分係勝利演說,正式宣布美國渡過金融海嘯危機。

雷曼倒閉已經一年,華爾街日報最新調查,仍然認為,美國政府唔拯救雷曼係錯。

一場海嘯,美國政府成為銀行,按揭,同汽車行業最大股東。

美國目前每十宗新批按揭中,有九宗變相係由政府斥資。

奧巴馬預計會喺演說中,表明政府逐步降低對金融業嘅介入程度,亦會試圖令停滯嘅金融改革立法工作活躍起嚟,佢仲會促請華爾街大行承擔責任,避免再做導致金融危機嘅高風險交易。

雖然金融市場已經回復到海嘯前水平,但美國各大傳媒批評,整個金融監管機制依舊不變。

奧巴馬競選政崗之一正係加強監管,白宮振興經濟顧問委員會主席沃爾克亦向白宮正式建議,有需要限制金融機構規模,避免再引發系統性問題,但建議無被接納。

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Stiglitz史蒂格里茨提到,政治問題令改革金融業上面對極大挑戰,雷曼破產一年,但美國仲未能夠成功解決銀行體系嘅問題,佢形容依家情況甚至比金融海嘯之前更加嚴重。

至於整場金融海嘯大贏家,有人話係安然渡過海嘯嘅金融機構。

用上政府數以萬億計資金,稱之為贏家可能受之有愧,與其話係大贏家,倒不如叫最大受益人。

從舊年今日起,雷曼保唔著,資產一分三,巴克萊分得美國業務,野村就執左雷曼亞洲,歐洲資產。

有評論話,贏家係英國巴克萊先真。

華爾街日報評論指,巴克萊用十億英鎊買入雷曼業務,可以即時喺今年第一季Book到23億英鎊盈利入帳,證明交易價廉物美。

雷曼未執前,雖然毒資產多。但佢地定息交易,同商品交易業務美國數一數二,亦因為咁,令巴克萊食正條水,巴克萊收入有增之餘,亦終於建立佢地投行美夢1

相比之下,愈嚟愈多分析認為,野村收購雷曼亞洲,歐洲資產,屬於買錯貨行列。

熟識雷曼嘅圈中人提到,野村對雷曼亞洲業務抱好大希望,但誰不知雷曼亞洲喺區內規模唔算大,而且大部分係出事前先擴張,整個Franchise唔及美國業務好。

日本人管美國人,正係雷曼亞洲面對緊文化衝突,令到野村遲遲唔能夠整合業務。有實力嘅前雷曼Banker一早已經散水。

野村錯在承諾唔炒雷曼舊人,結果造成大量重疊。

出年三月,係佢地提供雷曼員工薪酬包底期限,正式測試前雷曼人效忠程度有幾大,但估計到時會有更多員工選擇走人。

4 則留言:

匿名 說...

Mr. Yam needs a lower market for his mammoth pension fund.

匿名 說...

What else could be easier to sell it lower or by wrods of mouth for Yam?

匿名 說...

Do you want to talk it down when you are long of underlying assets? I thinks only those fools will do it? It was the mistakes of Bush to exaggerate the worst and created of chaos due to lack of confidence globally.
These days there are so many people saying there are no dis- alignment of stock market and the economy, these are just excuses to talk it lower. What investors concerned are the fair and expected value of the stock and how it is going to perform in their time horizon. I do not understand why people saying the stock are expensive, DJ just up 10% this year and NASDAQ up20%. For H shares, most stocks are least affected by the crisis dropped from 32000 to 11000 and now rebound to 21000. Both 32000 and 11000 are just overshooting on either side and now settle only in the middle. I tend to agree with Mr. Luk Dong saying that the right level should be around 21000. If we expect the economy of China is going to expand by another 8% at least next year, the expected H shares value should be around 23000to 25000.
Those who are not holding assets are natural talking bearish for them to buy. I think most behind and in front of camera in cable TV are holding no stocks, that is why only quests with negative views are invited. Those who are bullish are kicked out of the shooting floor. Money will only go to bold and smart people and not those who fears all the time of other people's words. Do your homework not for your examinations but for your wealth building.

匿名 說...

Moneycafe,
Why can't you guys ever try to create the graphs based on the nice one (which usually being used to show the HSI Index)? It seemed like the graph showing the half trading day index (due to typhoon) yesterday was created by EXCEL/POWERPOINT; even a higher school student can do a better job!