2009年9月28日星期一

押注日圓

日本政府鍾意「強日圓」? 真係「豬仔都會上樹」!

不過就係靠住呢招,日圓今日升過上88點24,係八個月高位,原因除左季結、企業將資金調回國內,最大推動因素係啱啱出席完20國峰會嘅日本財務大臣籐井裕久重申左強日圓政策。

呢位七十七歲、外形似足「小丸子阿爺」嘅籐井、喺同美國財長蓋特納會晤後﹐佢提出目前匯市走勢,係利好日圓一面倒升值。雖然佢之後反口唔認數,不過反而比市場估到、日本政府嘅底線係去到邊度!

華爾街日報形容,鳩山由紀夫出任首相後、係押注強日圓、賭一鋪大細。佢一改之前十幾年日本央行透過干預匯市、維持日圓弱勢做法﹐希望賭強日圓會刺激國內需求、降低日本經濟對出口的依賴。

如果有去日本,呢種政策表面似乎收虔、喺一啲高檔商店,你好熟悉嘅意大利手袋品牌、名牌法國香水,銷售額都出現左增長。日本傳媒形容,上個世紀80年代出現嘅消費熱潮,開始有回歸現象。

不過對出口商嚟講,強日圓肯定係最唔想見。以最大汽車出口商豐田汽車為例,佢地就講過美元兌日圓匯率每下跌1日圓﹐佢地盈利就會消失350億日圓。以而家升至90日圓水平,更家係相當痛苦!

麥格理就指,日圓轉強已經抑制左出口業復蘇﹐甚至仲差過亞洲其他出口國,好似08年中以來﹐日圓兌韓圓已升值34%。東京三菱UFJ更提出日圓不斷升值有可能使日本經濟重新陷入衰退。

華爾街日報就提出,雖然強日圓可以降低進口價格,不過由於消費者預計物價未來仲會下降﹐反而會推遲消費,令通縮愈嚟愈惡劣。

眼見日圓愈升愈多,連路透社都出左特稿,由1949年起開始回顧日圓走勢,關鍵年分當然係1985年五大工業國簽訂嘅「廣場協議」,之後日圓就由240兌一美元不斷升值,到八八年日本央行就首次開始左對匯市干預,希望壓抑日圓升勢,不過作用一直唔大,到九五年日圓更創下79嘅戰後新高!

而家市場開始睇日圓下一步、將會升至87.1日圓嘅十三年新高,日圓先生神原英資認為,籐井嘅言論,暗示日本政府可接受日圓繼續升值,似乎今年紅葉與我都無咩緣分。

3 則留言:

匿名 說...

Last night, in Money Cafe, a importatn concept has been misunderstood, the basic principle of coolling period is to allow the investors to assess if the risks are acceptabe to them so that they will not jump into the investment hastily. Since the price of the investment products have not been agreed, there are no market risks to the banks until the customer agree to buy after the cooling period is over. The bankers like Stanely Wony and Wong Dong Shing are just excusing themselves to put the situation in their favour and pressure on SFC and the investors.

匿名 說...

Yes, the above the totally right. It is very misleading to let the public has a perception that the banks are sitting positions to wait for investors to decide after the cooling perod. What odds for the bankers to say that. No banks are that foolish to commit themselves the price to wait for investors to come back. The hosts and guests in last nigth Money Cafe have missed this important point.

匿名 說...

投行收歛了,投機者輸了,政府學曉了教訓-
意思是最大损失是投资者. 投行依然大派花红. 政府官员依然出粮,唯独是投资者斯人独憔悴...

但是银行的防火墙依然是这么的透明.. 虽然迷债投资者输掉了身家, 但是银行职员还是继续升级加人工.是这就是国际金融中心的基本要求.