2009年10月2日星期五

十月熊踪

踏入十月,國慶之後有中秋,對於股市嚟論,連續三季大牛市之後,我地再論BULL AND BEAR。

低息,資金多,無出路之下,股市突然養得肥肥白白。

傳統第四季,特別係十月,屬於資金重新調配高峰期,兼且基本因素重視情況增加,外界認
為今年第四季係嚟緊市況發展嘅關鍵月分。

無需求神問卜,茶飯不思。我地總CALL到的名家指點一番。

新興市場教父麥樸思話,中資股仍然具備實力,但衰在估值到依家已經太貴。

羅家聰更話,原本佢以為恒指可以上望二萬三,但幾次上唔到,似乎見左頂,後市可能要跌
番3成!

青姐就認為,個市二萬一已經升到去盡,繼續睇淡唔好淡,因為市場仲係太多錢。

相反,近期對後市極牛嘅沈大師就話,之前咪又係驚會跌市,結果都無野,今次都係震下,上望仍然可以見二萬三千點。

三對一,睇淡多,睇好得一個。

牛贏左三個回合,從估值,企業盈利,同基本因素睇,熊仔最後一回合要贏,絕對可以有把
握。

經濟學人對今年嚟,毫無基本因素之下,出現牛市仍然唔甘心,佢地今期就發表兩篇文章,重提熊市存在仍然有實際因素支持。

經濟學人表明,市場本應係要悲觀,只不過係大規模嘅放水養魚,扭曲左市場情況。經濟學人話,美國近期數據,進一步引證,呢隻隻熊,一旦食飽,隨時出沒。

透過大規模印銀紙放水養魚,股市錄得六成升幅,呢個水平,以往要三年時間先可以達到。

問題係,印銀紙機已經停止運作,經濟未有條件創造新一批財富之下,市場無新錢,支持唔到股市再升。寬鬆政策一旦撤回,市況更會大見真章。

華爾街著名銀行分析員MERERITH WHITNEY就親自撰文,話整個信貸危機未完成,依家只係過左一回合。佢話,之前印咁多錢,都只係救到一的大型機構,但中小企信貸收縮問題日趨嚴重,而美國中小型,僱用美國五成總員工人,依家問題唔係外界諗得咁樂觀。

衡量股市平貴睇PE。近期市場出現一個現象,就係重新重視歷史市盈率,因為嫌預測市盈率做嘅盈利預測太樂觀。一睇歷史市盈率就大件事,無論區內以至美股,都過廿倍。

講到經濟學人,佢地今期提出左一個新觀點,就係所謂「新常態」New Normal嘅經濟壯況。

即係政府「慷慨」增加開支,但失業率持續攀升、產能仍然空置,單靠提高庫存,根本唔能夠支持企業盈利增長。

經濟學人提出,更重要係全球開支上升、但根本解決唔到家庭收入下降、以及對未來預期嘅下降。

佢地認為,各國政府首要任務係要提高私人消費。如果政府喺消費有改善前退市,全球經濟好大機會會重蹈日本九十年代、迷失十年嘅覆轍。

因此,經濟學人結論係、國債雖然係要解決,不過要先恢復市場信心先再講。

無獨有偶,諾貝爾經濟學獎斯蒂格里茨話,通縮已經成為目前全球經濟最大威脅,特別係就業市場疲弱,唔排除實質收入亦都會向下,最終係令通縮惡化。

事實上、以美國目前CPI連跌六個月,通縮已經係1954年以嚟最長,債券大王格羅斯亦都認同,未來幾年物價係會進一步下跌。

3 則留言:

匿名 說...

It is quite natural for Mr. Yam to extend his influence after his office for nearly twenty years. I expect Yam will walk the same line as Mrs Chan Fong An Sang to use what ever channels to criticize the future monetary policies of the Government and make it difficult for Norman to move each inch ahead of him.

Norman, though I have no idea of who you are except I know you are a senior advisor to Mr. Tsang & ex-CBHK senior executive, do try your best to show us your wisdom & talent to visualize & bring HK monetary position forward.

For Chinese Government, if to appoint Yam as advisor to CBRC, I am quite sure it will put Norman to an even more difficult position to raise new ideas & their implementations.

匿名 說...

The bears are always extend themsevles by exaggerating the economic situation. In fact, we are just looking at US & European market by using the telecope, how can one can tell exactly what happen on the other side of the globe. If you watch CNBC & Wall Street Journal, most funds manager manage over billions are bullish of the stock market and expect there will be at least 20% to 30% on the upside. Bears in HK are just using the excuses and asked you to sell them cheap stocks to them at lower level. Bear in mind, the interest rates are too low and there are plenty of liquidity that needs to find ways to get into the stock market. Even we expect there might be an increase of interest rates next year but the increase will be very minimal, so we expect the market could test 26,000 next year. What else could be a good better investment than the stock market at these current levels, in particular the China A share Market are growing at least 8% a year. Stick to your stock portfolio otherwise after one or two months you will feel sorry by not holding your stocks. We might see a slight dip in coming weeks but these are the levels that one should go into it.

亞羊 說...

通縮?? 唔多覺???

真為普羅市民講句聲....

樓價日日升,通縮嗎?
去食個飯,幾多錢??
坐車.... 不過亞羊現在多乖飛機,
機票確實平了很多,但地鐵??巴士??
仲有... 差响等等 政府收費..

唔怪之財爺 心臟病....
或者佢天天學亞曾飲補湯, 出事!!

上飛機,看看河東獅子..

咩... 咩... 咩...