2009年10月7日星期三

邊有咁好景.....

澳洲突如其來嘅加息,引發左全球復蘇憧憬,華爾街日報形容,股市、商品市場都出現瘋狂式暴漲。

但事實係咪咁樂觀?

經濟學人話,正如大部分經濟學家認同,澳洲加息有本身特殊因素:

經濟從來未出現衰退,失業率低企、樓價第二季急升百分之五,而且近日升幅加快,更重係澳洲地理上靠近亞洲,商品喺出口佔嘅比例由兩成增至四成。

發達國家經濟出現兩極化,部分喺資產價格推動下,好似澳洲、新西蘭、挪威、同加拿大,係有條件加息,但歐美遠遠未有呢個條件。

華爾街日報話星期二全球資產價格急升,只係反映投資者喺憧憬環球經濟復蘇、同擔心雙底衰退之間。

但更令人擔心係美元弱勢,投資者而家只係傾向睇資金流入風險資產、但實際美元長期下跌,只係會令資金最終流出美股。

著名投資者索羅斯話,唔好對經濟有過分期望。

索羅斯話,全球最大經濟體系美國,經濟復蘇道路漫長,佢話,美國消費者負債過高,更形容整個銀行業仍然處於破產邊沿,影響經濟前景。

索羅斯話,美國目前無條件撤出量化寬鬆政策。佢批評,市場只係當舊年嘅金融海嘯係一場惡夢,事後就完全忘記,唔吸取考訓。

同索羅斯一樣近日不斷發出警告嘅摩根士丹利亞太區主席羅奇,喺金融時報撰文,亦都痛斥市場只係有短暫記憶,好多人都忘記左舊年嘅教訓,唔記得全球經濟仍然係陷於嚴重不平衡。

羅奇話,當市場以為可以無視呢啲教訓時候,只會為下一次危機做成更大陷阱。

3 則留言:

匿名 說...

The investors are concerning what they invest today and how much they can get tomorrow. What they invest are the stocks but not the economy. What they trade are market sentiment & drive of liquidity and not the up and down of different & many kinds of economic figures. Though the people loss their jobs, still they have money to spend & invest. As we sell, the stock will continue going into strong hands and ultimately to push the stock price higher. For sure we will see HS index testing 26,000 & H index to 16000 very soon if not by first quarter 2010. (1+2)

匿名 說...

Agreed totally!
I watch TV yesterday an economist said 14,000 is on the card. Also, he is the most bullish of the HK property markets. It is likely he has put his odd of his career and his company into this betting table. If the market can't go his way, he will lose his job.

亞羊 說...

不如試試咁講....

澳洲試圖保護自已AUD,
情願加息底下,唔信隨便借出"別國"

或唔想別國用所謂弱勢貨幣換自己貨幣..

睇下 GBP.... 就 "明白"


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