2007年10月6日星期六

減價累事


有無諗過,手機收費減價,會令日本央行放慢加息步伐?

目前日本有一億人用緊手提電話,城市滲透率超過九成。

呢個電訊競爭激烈的市場,一直係以高昂的流動電話月費,去補貼手機機價,因此手機往往可以做到貼近香港的零機價,不過收費就明顯偏高,亦做成誘因令用戶頻密轉換手提電話。統計顯示,日本每五人就有一個會在兩年內轉換手提電話(似3乎香港的數目會更高一些。)

不過自從舊年SOFTBANK收購左VODAFONE後,我們早就提出日本手機收費必然爆發減價戰(見i-mode out, super 3G in ),加上日本政府修例,要求電信商增加收費透明度,
因此當地第二大電信公司KDDI今個星期公布大幅減低收費四成,而最大電信高DOCOMO,亦表明會跟隨減價。市場估計今次減價,會令兩間公司今年損失六百億日圓盈利。

而家市場係觀望到底統計部門點樣去計算收費減價、對物價的影響。

政府在二月時候,開始將一些會在短期內大幅跌價的貨品,例如係LCD電視,計入物價指數內,令二月數據再次出現通縮。

由於日本人用電話非常廣泛,今次大幅削減電話費,實在做成太大影響。皇家蘇格蘭就估計,最差情況會令物價下跌零點六個百分點,以目前通脹率只係負百分之零點一計,影響可以係相當嚴重。

試問以日本目前的經濟狀況,加上政局混亂,日本央行又怎能隨意加息?日圓的升勢又可以持續多久?

2 則留言:

匿名 說...

hi moneycafe, 你地節目都唔錯!

提供呢個網給你們參考,有好多中港股民一齊講股架:

http://www.ganguba.com

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