You know that story in the book...About the street smart guy vs the PhDA coin. Coming up heads 99 times.Ask the PhD what the flip would be on the 100th time, the PhD will say "of course 50% chance head, 50% tails"Ask the street smart dude he will say, "look the coin is obviously loaded, the 100th flip of course will be heads"Now, the PhD believes it will still be 50% chance of tails, because thats what his MATHEMATICAL MODELS tell him.Same thing with MBS, CDO risks...even when 99 MBS of the same risk profiles blow up. the PhD guy will still say that the 100th will not blow up!BECAUSE THATS WHAT HIS MODELS SAY!!!I am going to write about that.
今天的金融市場結構實在複雜得令人害怕，以往MBS已經好像是很複雜的產品，殊不知仲有架構更多層次、帳目上更能隱藏的SIV，分分鐘會是下個炸彈。今期經濟學人就是以美國衰退的機會作封面專題: 1929年股災後翌日，the Harvard Economic Society 仍告訴讀者:「衰退絕不可能發生!」殊不知黑天鵝已經靜靜到了身旁。今天，我們會不會面對同一境況？
I will answer you in my Monday column.I think this whole thing is vey exciting.
Hahhahathats exactly what Taleb advises...Don't predict, just be ready whenever a black swan happens.As for 911... It was a black swan too for the FBIBut there was "abnormal" put options buying on airline stocks the week before 911...But they never found out who bought them.