2008年8月6日星期三

有毒

今天絕對要談東亞。

投資大幅撇帳,東亞出嚟嘅業績遠差過預期。

上半年佢地要再為手頭兩個「字母湯」CDO同SIV,合共撇左15億幾港紙。

因為咁上半年盈利大跌5成2,派息當然同時減少,股價星期二下晝就好食左瀉藥咁,疴得一乾二淨。

最大鑊係未見底!
雖然SIV幾乎全數撇帳,但CDO計落仲有4億3千幾萬美元,即係話,下半年仲有得撇!

連高盛肥佬分析員羅慕斯,亦即場向管理層質詢,認為東亞呢個撇帳水平,可以比美歐美銀行。

最令人氣怒係,除左寶哥哥,東亞管理層似乎毫無悔意,仲口口聲聲話,7月分市況已經回穩啦,已經有50萬撥備回撥,嚟緊可能仲有。

佢似乎唔記得左半年前都講過同樣承諾。結果呢?大家有眼見!

事實上,美林同高盛都估下半年東亞仲要再撇帳。高盛就估要做多2成撥備,美林更加估會錄得5億幾港紙撥備虧損,嚴重影響下半年盈利。

花旗就更批評得不留餘地,直指東亞根本無為經濟放緩做過任何準備,話東亞一級資本率、資產回報及淨利息收益率,都差過本港同內地大型銀行。

以目前東亞的股價,雖然泊住本港防守性銀行嘅水平,但根本就無甘既質素。

一言中的!

曾經有分析員形容過,次按有如CANCER,而受到次按影響結構產品,就等於TOXIC,買咗就即刻中毒。

弊就弊在呢兩日先係銀行業績期第二日。之前大摩開口中,話東亞係首席高危分子。

跟隨住仲有中信國金、大新、富邦、工銀亞洲,亦都有揸著呢批投資工具、要大撇帳,盈利肯定倒退。

不過有國泰經驗睇,其實公司只要早有準備,認定業績會令市場失望,就預早發盈警,雖然有一陣陣痛,但雨過後,反而更令人看清真實面貌,總好過唔聲唔聲嚇你一驚,之後仲要惡言相向!

4 則留言:

亞羊 說...

今晚唔知有冇得睇??
兩房又出事, 中毒....
有冇"偉哥"or"神油",來堅守??

亞羊 說...

肥孫先生,
你閣下D白銀平倉了嗎>?
定反做沽沽??

匿名 說...

白銀, 肥仔係睇10年加0麻!
依家平倉, 咪賺少好多, 你有冇攪錯?

匿名 說...

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