2009年1月14日星期三

今日有兩宗銀行新聞,真係睇到你傻。

渣打早前供股,事後有高層講,其實當時根本無得揀,在國有化前提下,劣行驅遂良行,所有分析員同基金都賭你要集資,否則就一直沽你股票落去,完全係一副「焗」你唔死格局。

渣打思前想後,既然市場有所求、就應你要求,仲要來招供股集資、一來對現有股東公平,二來就是要反客為主,嚇返你一驚。

結果,股價反而無晒不明朗,之後仲可以跑嬴大市。

今天,匯控目前相同局面,點拆好?

匯豐股價大跌,直接原因係摩笛又出報告,話匯豐需要集資二百六十,至四百一十幾億美金,報告震驚市場。

計我話,報告內提及香港匯豐資本充足比率不足,係基於最極端情況下做假設。外界只係要逼匯豐集資。

分報告最觸目,當然係將目標價降至52蚊。

不過好似柏文話,其實成分研究報告呢一分部分,先最無價值。

至於論點,其實來來去去都係咬實:資本同派息。

大摩話匯豐會大減派息一半,同集資最少260億美金。理由係,匯豐資本充足比率低。

大摩話匯豐一級核心資本充足比率有百分之七點四,但扣除投資組合、同為匯豐融資潛在虧損,比率只有百分之3.6。

摩根士丹利話,連香港匯豐資本充足比率都較同行低。

我地走去問匯豐大好友東尼,佢都坦白話,摩根士丹利明顯係同各種假設逼匯豐集資。

最好笑係,他說這些假設在兩年後發生的事,到時都唔知你大摩仲存唔存在,反而匯控肯定不易倒閉。

分析員指一級資金比率,以股本計算投資組合,除非大幅撇帳,否則唔應該用嚟做資本充足比率嘅假設。

而最大問題係指,存款基礎更大嘅香港業務,被指資本比率唔夠,其實原因很簡單:匯豐香港業務根本無需要過多資本充足比率!

多間銀行被國有化後,資本比率多少,成為衡量銀行指標,銀行界話,依家趨勢係就算無需要,投資者,同分析員都會圍攻一的未集資嘅銀行。

以紀勤性格,我就係信匯豐會咩到唔到做,橫豎個局點都拆唔開,就一於同你鬥到三月,睇下到時點!

至於另一宗令人震驚消息,當然係戴維思到白高敦馬房做官,一間再講。

3 則留言:

匿名 說...

HSBC is too passive to response to the market rumours and let the market to guess and dictate their moves. To be resposible to the sharesholders, quick and clear message need to be sent out as this piece of news has been lingered for at least a month already. The longer it takes, the more costly will be their raising exercies. If they raised at 90 with P/E of course far higher than now. Hope not they wait until when their price down to 55.-SC

MoneyCafe 說...

而家匯豐已經blackout period,基本上是被人縛著手任打....所以,大摩揀呢個時間出手,都係高招....

匿名 說...

Frankly, this kind of report give us rethink whether HSBC still worth for invest or not. I know there are far too many people love HSBC due to this bank growth with many HK ppl. However, its unique position has been significantly changed after their management team decided to go global rather than focus in the Asia Pacific or developing country.

Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I don't want HSBC hit $52 a share but unload some shares is not a wrong move.