2009年1月29日星期四

壞銀行

今天看到經濟日報一篇行家分析,內容都係提及為何奧巴馬要舊事重提,提出Bad Bank慨念,很有啟發性。

文中提到一個分析,就是銀行管理層目前的心態,與舊年十月時已經大不相同,特別是經歷過美國巨額注資後,銀行已經相杷被國有化,管理層對著政府呢個大股東,相信抵抗的心早態早已消失,因此亦較容易接受方案。

美國新經濟班子再度考慮,成立所謂嘅「壞帳銀行」Bad Bank,目前呢批潛在「有毒」資產,高達兩萬億美元。

跟據最新安排,白宮考慮從救市基金中、撥出最多兩千億美元,用呢筆錢「做底」,透過大舉發行國債支付。

多次被揣測資本不足嘅匯控主席葛霖,相信對呢個方案真係感受良多,佢話,收購不良資產,可能有助改善金融危機。

葛霖批評繼續向部分銀行注資,「國有化」只會扭曲左市場嘅公平競爭。

不過,分析指計劃牽涉好多細節。

最難係計算資產價格,既要避免納稅人承擔太大潛在損失,又要俾銀行足夠流動資金。

雖說銀行已半國有化,但售資產點到涉及討價還價,到底咩叫Fair Value,可以人言人殊。

另外,好似資產要持有幾耐,第時點樣賣番出去等等,都唔易達成共識。

呢啲亦係當初白宮放棄直接買資產嘅原因。

投資者索羅斯認為,咁做無助恢復市場信貸。

更重要係注資亦未必能夠徹底解決問題,美國銀行就係例子,三個月內需要兩度尋求政府注資。

雖然財長蓋特納極力避免「國有化」呢個字眼,但分析擔心,為數唔少,規模較細嘅銀行,最終會被國有化,對金融市場長遠構成負面影響,例如我們多次講的劣行驅逐良行。

另一個影響,是長遠做成mispricing,因為經國有化後,銀行的經營出現了微妙變化,管理層不再以提高股東回報(派息)為目標,相反銀行的營運首要成了配合國家需要,貸款一旦變成按「阿爺」需要,後果都無須多言。
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p.s.問問各位,大家對於Bad Bank翻譯有什麼好提議? 壞帳銀行? 不良銀行? 還是索性叫「壞銀行」?

2 則留言:

匿名 說...

Nationalization does have its own problems, however, this is only a transition. The goal of nationalization is to wipe out shareholders, kick management out, write off all bad assets and then recap the banks. Once all the bad assets are gone, the bond holders can take a hit as their bonds will be converted to equity. Since all the bad assets are now gone, private investments will be more willing to become shareholders, and the gov't can phase out in this case.

The only thing is, the gov't now worries about how nationalization can impact the core value of capitalism, and how can the politicians expect those big monies going forward will still contribute to political campaigns when they decide to wipe out all shareholders' values? Thus they want to create a "bad bank," as American citizens have no choice but to bear all the costs.

匿名 說...

The concept of " Bad Bank" is stolen from what they called RTC (Resoultion Trust Company). In fact, China had used it to get rid of the non-performing loan several years ago by using this kind of set up before the IPO listing of BOC, ICBC and CCB. The success of the RTC hinged primarily on the speed with which NPL assets were brought to market and securitized. Investors responded creatively to the opportunity, and prices, which were initially low, rose quickly, thereby reducing the losses to the government. The Chinese government has attempted to apply the lessons of the RTC by creating four Asset Management Corporations (AMCs) to speed the loan resolution process, and by encouraging foreign investors to buy the NPL portfolios. Whether or not prices in Bad Bank will rise rapidly depends on whether investors are able to get control of NPL assets quickly and to realize higher recovery values than they currently project.-SC