2009年8月7日星期五

出谷記

連衰退最後一度防線也被打破,大概沒有人會再死撐復甦的來臨吧?

七月失業率意外地由9.5%回落至9.4%,遠較市場估計的9.6理想,更是一年來首次回落。

市場原本預期,七月就業職位會減少32萬個,結果減少職位只有比24萬7千分,又係遠好過預期。

看看減少職位的組成部分也有意義,一直認為是最差的工業,減少職位只有五萬二千分,是一年來最少,比預期十萬分好了差不多一半,主要是來自汽車業出符意外增加了28,200個職位,證明了奧巴馬當日任由通用與佳士拿自行破產保護後,反而令汽車業可以奇跡火鳳凰重生。

至於金融業當然是最受惠資產市場升值行業,而政府聘請職位由前一個月減少四萬八千個變成增加七千個亦有抵銷作用。

有請人經驗的人都知道,老闆一定是最刻薄的,除非真的見到生意機會,否則一般大企業就情願凍結職位,寧願現有僱員增加工時。

這可以解釋每周工時由六月的33個小時,增加至33.1小時,而工時薪酬亦增加了百分之零點二。

政府也許出於政治理由,仍然不大敢說經濟已經走出谷底,不過企業的習慣是在經濟有起色初期,由於未確定是否假反彈,很多時產能都只會在現有人手下擴張,如果連就業這個滯後數據都有所改善,代表公司願意重新開聘職位,就是證明經濟真的有起色,相信大家也會同意吧?

7 則留言:

亞羊 說...

我地財爺仲話今年年尾通宿....


唔知地鐵何時減價??

定或是股市轉旺後,全民皆股,因而可以講失業率降低.....

咩... 咩.... 咩...

匿名 說...

貴 blog 改了 style 之後, 現在容易閱讀, fonts 也可自由放大縮小, 可喜可喜, 但仍可做得更好.

匿名 說...

Tradng strategies:
Buy & hold 941
Buy 3328 sell 3988-SC

匿名 說...

假如梁展文在新世界的事件引起社会的反感和关注, 那么任志刚在他任内余下几个月的外汇基金的投资策略和他卸任后的一段时间的个人投资的相关性对我们一点也不能放松.希望政府和理发会能正视这个问题.

虽然私人过垱跟个人投资性质不同, 但任生的个人利益在他离任时比梁展文可以大很多倍.

匿名 說...

假如梁展文在新世界的事件引起社会的反感和关注, 那么任志刚在他任内余下几个月的外汇基金的投资策略和他卸任后的一段时间的个人投资的相关性对我们一点也不能放松.希望政府和立法会能正视这个问题.

虽然私人过垱跟个人投资性质不同, 但任生的个人利益在他离任时比梁展文可以大很多倍.

匿名 說...

Agreed 100%.
The investment of our Exchange Funds could affect billions of our reserves that is belonging to our average Hong Kong people. This issue cannot be overlooked. I do not sttempt to say one would push down certain stocks and buy it cheap later on or buy it up for them to sell after one left the post but it is kind of conflict of interest issue that should be seriously dealt with. I am not trying strictly referring to Mr. Yam, but for sure all the other HKMA staff and their dealing room should also brought into pcitures for what they are doing.
Hope the Legislative members are not tardy and insenitive to this issue.

匿名 說...

The legislators are not smart on this-conflict of interest of HKMA are something they are not thinking of. Why there are not much choice of our legislators, especially on the financial side which most are unknowledgable. What left is Mr. Tsim Pui Chung, though not a good one at least we have one. For Mr. David Li, he is too old and too slow to say for the banks. I don't understand why Mr. Li always utter some English words in every interview but his pronounication and choice of words are far from perfect. What the so-call democrats are only care about the next ballot & how much political chips they can made to save their job in the next election. 这个就是情操吧! 在64 台上大义凛然,在台下只管选票.